Tag Archive | "R.A. Dickey"

fake stats

Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Starting Pitching Valuation (SPv) Leaderboard

Posted on 16 August 2012 by Dylan Cain

Loyal Full Spectrum Baseball readers may remember an article I wrote a while back about an innovative new stat, one I call Starting Pitcher Valuation (SPv).  For a brief introduction to the statistic for those who have not read the article, SPv is a stat that encompasses 1) the number of base runners a starting pitcher has allowed, 2) how many earned runs he’s allowed, 3) how many batters he strikes out as opposed to how few batters he walks 4) and how well he can lead his team to a victory.

I have taken all these stats and “blended” them together, creating a pitching stat that ranks starters (not relievers) on a scale of 100%-0%. This gives analytically-minded  fans like you the chance to see one stat that is “easy-to-digest” as opposed to reading a long line of the 10-15 most commonly used statistics.  I wrote this article in hopes of providing a weekly “leaderboard” of SPv and to also give my opinions and some notes about how they (starting pitchers) have done of late.  Here are your season-to-date SPv leaders (as of  August 12th). Enjoy!

1) Jered Weaver (84.87%)- The Angels’ ace has been dealing this year, even in an offensive powerhouse division like the AL West. He’s only lost one game this year and with the offensive production of the Halo’s lineup, he doesn’t seem to have that much pressure on him.  With guys like Mike Trout (.340 AVG) and Albert Pujols (Did you hear about his 24 homeruns?? Talk about coming back after a slow start…), any pitcher would feel relaxed on the hill.  His fastball isn’t Aroldis Chapman caliber but it’s enough to get the job done.

2) R.A. Dickey (81.19%)- The Tim Wakefield impersonator has looked slightly more human of late, with his ERA going up .74 points since his second consecutive one-hitter.  Remember, he still has the best SPv in the senior circut, meaning he is on track to have the best season a knuckleballer has ever had, statistically. His 15 wins are tied for the most in the the bigs, he still makes batters look silly, and he is still very likely in line to win the NL Cy Young Award.

3) Chris Sale (80.96%)- The lanky southpaw for the Chicago White Sox has given his rotation a big boost, even with his young, inexperienced arm.  He puts on a show with the radar gun and can shutdown powerful lineups.  He does have an advantage of facing some weaker offensive teams in the AL Central, however.  Six of his 13 wins have come against the Royals, Indians and Twins.  He is a great pitcher but needs a little more experience to convinced me. The addition of Jake Peavy helped him greatly and Francisco Liriano will give him more of an advantage.

4) David Price (79.77%)- The three-time All-Star is on pace to get the most wins of his career and as far as the AL Cy Young Award voting is concerned, he is breathing down the neck of Sale and Weaver.  The only thing he actually lacks is a big bat to support him offensively.  Evan Longoria coming back will hopefully help with that problem.  If any pitcher can help Tampa Bay get a playoff spot from the A’s it will be Price.  He WILL have a Cy Young Award on the wall before his career is done.

5) Justin Verlander (78.62%)- Finally on the list, Verlander comes in at fourth place in the junior circuit, quite surprising for the Detroit Tigers ace. In my opinion, he is the most overrated pitcher in baseball.  Sure, he has a blazing fastball. Sure, his ERA is under two and a half.  But, he has been inconsistent at moments and is on pace to have the most losses in his career since 2008.  I will give him credit, however, because he tends to dominate one of my favorite statistics (WHIP).

6) Stephen Strasburg (77.71%)- The Strikeout king is now on the list and he is very deserving.  In seven of his twenty three games this year, he has struck out nine batters or more!  That is 30.4% of the time.  Looking for a whiff?  He’s the guy you have to call.  His innings limit has been in the news lately and I think if the Nationals want to keep winning he must be in the rotation. We’ll have to wait and see how this all plays out.

7) Matt Cain (76.7%)- “Mr. Perfect”, “Cain-O Insane-O”, “The San Fran Man”…regardless of what you call him, he is still a dominant force on the hill out on the west coast.  His ERA is under 3 for only the second time in his career but he’s currently regarded as the best pitcher in the Giants’ stacked rotation.  This is due mostly to Tim Lincecum‘s recent struggles, and the fact that most of the rotation is considerably “young talent”.  One of his statistics which catches my eye the most is the fact that his walks per 9 is the lowest in his career.

8) Felix Hernandez (76.44%)- “King Felix” is one of my favorite pitchers and I feel he is very underrated.  Although he may only have 10 wins, he already has 3 shutouts, leading the league.  He continues to strikeout batters (he is nearing his 1,500th strikeout) and his ERA is staying low.  His division rivals include the Texas Rangers and the LA Angels, two huge offensive teams.  Hernandez continually gets the job done, though.

9) Madison Bumgarner (76.4%)- When looking at the ERA leaders, you could easily think his fellow teammate Ryan Vogelsong has the edge. However, Bumgarner has a higher SPv for a couple of reasons.  One, he strikes out more batters and walks less, as opposed to Vogelsong.  And secondly, Bumgarner has a better WHIP.  Walks plus Hits divided by Innings Pitched is a crucial statistic in the makeup of SPv.  The first round pick in the 2007 draft is off to a good start in his career and he makes a good #2 behind Matt Cain.

10) Kyle Lohse (76.27%)- I was very surprised when I realized Lohse had made the Top 10. When we look at his stats, he has the second most wins on the St. Louis Cardinals staff (12, just behind Lance Lynn‘s 13) against only has 2 losses.  He hasn’t had much popularity since 2008 when he had 15 wins but the baseball community should know that Kyle still has his stuff.  His WHIP and ERA are at career bests and along with Jake Westbrook and Lance Lynn, they are filling the hole left by the Chris Carpenter injury quite nicely.

11) Johnny Cueto (76.18%)- I can truly say that in my mind, Cueto is the best pitcher in the packed NL Central.  I say this because he doesn’t allow many base runners, keeps batters guessing and even when things do get out of hand, he can still often get the win.  This is because of an offense led by Joey Votto, Jay Bruce, and Brandon Phillips.  These athletes, led by Cueto, will help the Reds gain an even larger lead over Andrew McCutchen and the Pittsburgh Pirates as the season winds down.

12) Jordan Zimmermann (76.14%)- I know I say the word underrated too often, but it’s one of the few words that describes Zimmermann accurately.  The reason I feel he hasn’t had instant stardom is due to the fact that, earlier in the year, he lacked run support.  At one point he had a losing record with an ERA under two and a half.  He doesn’t strikeout very many batters but he doesn’t walk many either. This keeps men off the base, keeping his WHIP low.  If anyone on this list will win the NL Cy Young Award in dramatic fashion, it’s Zimmermann.

13) Cole Hamels (75.75%)- This southpaw has been the talk of trade rumors year in and year out, but he remains in Philly, being the only pitcher to have double-digit wins for the Phillies.  He also has the most strikeouts, most innings pitched, leads in ERA+ and the lowest hits per nine innings.  Once the #2 pitcher to Roy Halladay, he is now the ace of the struggling team.  He just signed a huge, $153 million contract, so expect him to stick around for a while.

14) Clayton Kershaw (75.17%)- “The Claw” is the same man as he has been his whole career but isn’t quite as dominant as he was last year.  He is in the very pitching dominant NL, hurting his chances of winning back-to-back Cy Young Awards.  He strikes out a whole batter less per 9 inning than he did last year but he still has a WHIP of 1.027.  He leads the league in shutouts (2), is still the ace for the NL West leading (tied) Los Angeles Dodgers and no longer has to face Melky Cabrera due to a 50 game suspension.

15) CC Sabathia (75.06%)- CC has been on the DL for an extended period of time.  I think the Yankees are in a good enough position to where they can retain first place in the AL East without him.  If you asked me a year earlier, I would’ve told you that New York couldn’t have competed without Mariano Rivera and with Sabathia out, however, that’s exactly what they are doing.  Yankees’ fans just need to hope that C.C. can bounce back from the injuries, and continue on the pace where he left off.

16) A.J. Burnett (74.81%)- I would’ve expected the Pirate’s righty to be higher on this list, with 14 wins and a new beginning in Pittsburgh, however, he is not.  Like many of the pitchers ranked above him, he doesn’t possess a high number of K’s.  Through 21 starts, he already has the most wins in his career since 2008 in Toronto.  Not only does he have a career low WHIP (with 21+ games started), but he has a one-hitter under his belt.

17) Ryan Vogelsong (74.64%)- The reason this guy may not quite be a household name is because he hasn’t performed in the past, as he is just showing signs of greatness.  The last season that he had 25 or more starts before San Fransisco, he had an ERA of 6.50 with a 6-13 W-L record. He has redeemed himself, however, in his second stint for the Giants.  His two years back have been astounding, posting 249 strikeouts and a 23-13 record.  He does walk a few too many, but nothing to worry about. Expect him to have more than one all star selection in his career.

18) Scott Diamond (74.35%)- I consider this young man the only “stud” in the Minnesota Twin’s rotation.  He isnt like many of the guys on this list as far as strikeouts are concerned (5.0 strikeouts per 9 innings), but he makes up for it because he doesn’t walk many either (1.3 walks per 9 innings, a league lead).  He’s only pitched 18 games, and I really don’t expect the trend to continue, as he allows almost a home run a game.  That’s low enough to be a quality pitcher, but not to consistently be on this list.

19) Gio Gonzalez (74.15%)- Gio is one of the best parts of the Washington Nationals “Big 3″ (Strasburg and  Zimmerman included).  He has the most wins out of all of them (15, 2 away from a career high), he has the league lead in home runs per 9 innings (0.4), and the league lead in hits per 9 innings (6.9).  His wicked curveball is similar to those of fellow teamate Stephen Strasburg and Barry Zito.  With Strasburg supposedly being out of postseason play, Gio is the man who needs to step up even further, if possible.  This would be by walking less and staying consistent.

20) Ryan Dempster (73.62%)- The Texas new-comer is lucky to even be on this list.  His ERA has gone up 79 points in 4 games, but I think he still has some success in him.  He is aging, however, and is struggling to get wins.  He is a great #3 or #4 in the Rangers rotation, and run support won’t be an issue anymore, as it was with the Cubs.

Think one of your favorite pitchers deserved to be on the list or would you like to just discuss Starting Pitching Valuation, contact me on Twitter @pitchingstats or use the comments section below. I’ll be happy to answer any questions you might have about about this list, how to calculate SPv and/or how to apply its usage to fantasy baseball. Thanks for reading and be sure to check back next week.

Comments (1)

mets-all-star-logo

Tags: , , , , , ,

The Mets Unveil Their All-Star Logo And Promise A Legacy

Posted on 11 August 2012 by Trish Vignola

If a fantasy baseball team could have a theme song, mine would be “Slip Sliding Away.” I bet high this season. I took a lot of Mets off the free agent wires, especially when they came out of the gate with that unexpected strong start.

I stick by my theory that they still look good on paper. Nonetheless, after the game yesterday, another soldier fell. Mets Left-Handed Pitcher Tim Byrdak said he would have season-ending surgery to repair a torn capsule in his shoulder. Trying to balance the overflow of players on the disabled list that have spilled onto my bench has become a weekly dance for me.

In more interesting Mets’ news (yes, on occasion it exists), the 2013 All-Star Game has a date, a venue, and now it has a face. The Mets revealed the logo for the 2013 game at Citi Field on Tuesday. Of course, it features their familiar blue and orange. Unlike most things the team does, the logo is actually very cool. Drawing from the Mets’ classic skyline logo and lettering, it has got a funky retro feel.

“The city of New York’s been great in putting this together,” Mets COO Jeff Wilpon said at Tuesday’s press conference. “It wouldn’t happen without all those people coming together, working with us and awarding this game to Citi Field.” I was kind of surprised about how smoothly their bid went. If you are a native to the area, you are well versed in how the team is oft forgotten (and that’s when the team is actually doing well).

“It’s great to be a part of this celebration,” said Mets Third Baseman David Wright. “I can’t think of a bigger or better baseball stage. It’s great that we finally get an opportunity to showcase the beautiful complex, Citi Field, our home to the world. I can’t think of a better place or a more historical city to have an All-Star Game.”

The 2013 All-Star Game is scheduled for July 16 at Citi Field. The last time the Big Apple hosted the game was in 2008 at, of course, Yankee Stadium. More significantly, it is the first time the Mets have hosted the game since 1964, their inaugural season at Shea Stadium.

The Mets have had 109 All-Star selections in their franchise history. Seven of them attended Tuesday’s event, including Wright, R.A. Dickey, Johan Santana, Keith Hernandez, Ron Darling, Dwight Gooden and John Franco. Or, as I like to refer to them, seven Mets we know can’t embarrass us between now and July 16.

Come to think of it. You never want to hedge your bets on Doc Gooden and good behavior.

Dozens of Mets officials attended last month’s All-Star Game in Kansas City. They were taking tours of Kauffman Stadium and familiarizing themselves with All-Star protocol. Though the game will not take place for another 11 months, the team is actually preparing. This is an action most Mets fans normally do not associate with their team brass.

Next year’s event will be the ninth All-Star Game in New York City history. There were two stops at the Polo Grounds, one at Ebbets Field, one at Shea and four at the old Yankee Stadium (who saw that coming?). Between that and getting the Super Bowl, maybe we can all stop crying about losing the Olympics.

The city’s first deputy major, Patricia Harris, estimated that the game would bring more than 175,000 visitors to New York City and generate a $200-million economic impact. That doesn’t even take into account the residual economic impact that will be experienced by neighboring states such as New Jersey and Connecticut. “We have the greatest fans in the world, so it’s only fitting that we host the game’s greatest players,” said Harris to MLB.Com. “The game will not only raise the sports profile of our city, but it will help drive the economy.”

For those of you not familiar with Citi Field, it opened adjacent to Shea Stadium (which no longer stands) in 2009. It encompasses 1.2 million total square feet and holds up to 41,922 fans at maximum capacity. Although it does not bask within the glamor of Manhattan, it stands steps away from the Citi Field-Willets Point stop on the New York City subway’s elevated No. 7 line. It is also accessible via the Long Island Railroad and water taxi.

Unlike 2008, the Mets will host all of the traditional All-Star events at Citi Field, including the State Farm Home Run Derby, the XM All-Star Futures Game and various community events. In 2008, the Yankees actually held Fan Fest in Manhattan. Mets Radio Broadcaster Howie Rose called the 2013 game a “five-day celebration of baseball.”

“By hosting the All-Star Game, New York City will be the center of the sports universe next summer,” Major League Baseball’s Executive Vice President of Business Timothy Brosnan told MLB.com. “We’ll work closely with the city to make sure that the All-Star Game is not only a celebration for baseball fans, but that we leave a legacy behind that says Major League Baseball, the New York Mets and the city of New York care about those in need.”

The Mets and Major League Baseball are promising a post-game legacy for the city and the game on a whole. Has that ever happened? The All-Star Game has gotten a lot of criticism over the years for being a relic of a bygone era. For a team, whose legacy has been questionable at best, making a provocative promise such as that has just made this upcoming year interesting.

Comments (2)

Murphy’s Law Part III: R.A. Dickey

Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Murphy’s Law Part III: R.A. Dickey

Posted on 10 August 2012 by Trish Vignola

R.A. Dickey pitched a 6-1 gem against the Miami Marlins this afternoon. His complete game masterpiece was the 15th victory notch on his belt. He stopped Jose Reyes‘ 26-game hitting streak, which is kind of a conflict for me. As a Mets fan, who wouldn’t want to see Reyes get his comeuppance?

I’m not a sentimental idiot though. He was my first round fantasy draft pick. It seemed like such a good idea at the time.

Today ended a dreadful New York Mets’ nine-game home skid. ”That nine-game streak that was stopped today is more important than the 15 wins,” Dickey told the Associated Press (AP). Don’t worry, R.A. We didn’t like watching it either.

Dickey allowed five hits and struck out 10. It was the third straight spectacular outing for the knuckler, who is starting to make me wonder why his nickname isn’t “The Freak.” (Sorry, Tim Lincecum.) In his previous two starts, Dickey allowed only two earned runs combined.

Here’s my second conflict. I’m probably the most ardent Dickey fan (he’s on my roster as well). Nonetheless, I thought that his month long drought after the All-Star Break was the beginning of the end. Come on! We’re talking about the Mets here!

After that insane 12-1 start, he got played by Tony La Russa and his All Star politics. Coming out of the break, he was 2-2 in his next six starts. Now I am starting to think, could I have been wrong? As my fantasy baseball team slides down the tubes, is a New York Met actually not falling victim to Murphy’s Law (for once)?

Was last month actually an apparition?

Today’s weather in Flushing, Queens, was 89-degrees and hot. It was ideal weather for the fluttery pitch. Today marked the fourth complete game of the year for Dickey and eighth of his career. ”He’s got the feel for it back, again,” manager Terry Collins told the AP. ”All I can tell you is I hope the next eight starts are like this one.”

I’m sorry Terry. You can’t pitch him every day. Or can you?

Collins was prepared to ride his ace down the stretch. That’s right. Dickey is now considered the team’s ace. He wanted to go to Dickey on three days’ rest. However, that idea went out the window once the team essentially fell out of contention. The Mets have gone from 46-40 at the break to 54-58 after Thursday’s win.

Justin Ruggiano homered off Dickey in the fourth to tie it 1-all. Take away that and the Marlins have had little success against a pitcher, whose story makes “The Rookie” look pedestrian. Jose Reyes went 0 for 4. He twice stranded runners on third base and ending the longest hitting streak of his career.

I don’t even want to look at my team’s stats tonight.

Regarding today’s game, the holder of the best hitting streak in the majors this season could only mutter, ”Nothing close, nothing close.” Reyes took his bafflement into the field apparently. He lost a popup in the sun allowing the struggling Andres Torres to drive in the go-ahead run.

Torres homered off Josh Johnson in the sixth and got an RBI triple in the eighth after umpires went to replay to review whether the ball had left the park. If Torres has truly got his groove back and Dickey continues driving the National League to distraction, the last month and a half of the season is going to look far more palatable for the Mets.

Comments (0)

R.A. Dickey, New York Mets, sell his stock!

Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Fantasy Baseball Stock Watch: R.A Dickey…Buy?

Posted on 23 July 2012 by Patrick Hayes

Fantasy Baseball Stock Watch – R.A. Dickey, Tommy Milone and Yovani Gallardo

Welcome back to another edition of Fantasy Baseball Stock Watch. This week I am featuring three starting pitchers who have had varying levels of success in this 2012 year. I want to prefix by making note that I currently do not own any of these three, but I wish I did for the reasons below. On with the stock watch!

R.A. Dickey – SP, New York Mets

R.A.  Dickey, New York Mets, sell his stock!

#2 on ESPNs 5×5 Player Rater for SPs

R.A. (Robert Allen, in case you were wondering) has been one of the most surprising and intriguing stories of the year thus far. With an ADP of 298, he has been your waiver-wire goldmine to date. His WAR ranks 5th of SPs at 3.4, t-1st for wins with 13, ERA of 2.84 for 10th and a WHIP of 1.01 for 5th overall. Needless to say, he has been stellar thus far.

On the flip side, his season K/9 of 8.91 is considerably higher than his career average of 6.01 which indicates he is playing with house money at this point. His last 34 1/3 IP have been of the rocky-road variety, and I’m not talking about the delicious ice cream. Yielding 20 Earned Runs in his last five appearances (ERA of 5.24, WHIP of 1.37), it seems that a switch may have been flipped. Couple this with the atrocious Mets defense and an ugly skid of losing 9 in 10 games and you are left with a glimpse of reality that doesn’t have a favorable future. Now is the perfect time to include him in a trade to an owner that will gobble up his stats so far this year while hoping the past few outings are just a hiccup in a stellar year.

My verdict: Perfect Sell High Candidate

Tommy Milone – SP, Oakland Athletics

Tommy  Milone, Oakland A's, buy this pitcher!

#29 on ESPNs 5×5 Player Rater for SPs

Tommy Milone on the other hand, has been stellar of late. In his last 32 IP he has only walked two batters, while striking out 34 and yielding four earned runs. He also has been a key ingredient to Oakland’s still-baffling success this year. While he doesn’t fair quite so well outside of The Coliseum (5.69 to .91 road to home ERA), his BABIP is down this year to .282, which is closer to his career average. However, four of his next six starts will be at home.

Bottom line, I love how he isn’t giving many free passes to base runners and being effective in his outings (could throwing his change-up more often be part of this reason?). Don’t expect him to fan 10 each time he goes out, just like he did versus the Yankees, but play him with confidence knowing that you will get six of seven innings pitched while giving up a few hits, but your ERA and WHIP will be lower because of it. In my eyes, he would be a good player to secondarily target in part of a bigger trade, or while positioning yourself next year if you are out of the playoffs and are looking for a bargain keeper in dynasty leagues.

My verdict: Buy Low Candidate

Yovani Gallardo – SP, Milwaukee Brewers

Yovani  Gallardo, Milwaukee Brewers, must frustrating pitcher ever?

#40 on ESPNs 5×5 Player Rater for SPs

Mr.Galalrdo has been a frustrating pitcher to many owners throughout the course of this 26 year-old’s career so far. The only consistent aspect to his pitching each year is the inconsistencies, seemingly without reason. This year is more of the same, brilliance one start(7 IP, 14K’s, 4 H, 1 ER vs PIT on July 15th) and then aggravation the next (5 2/3 IP, 1 K, 9 H, 4 ER at CIN on July 21st).

He has all of talent in the world (career K/9 north of 9.05) but continues to struggle with his control (career BB/9 of 3.49). Because of this, he may never grow into the ace pitcher role on any staff, but will always be considered a solid number two option in any rotation. Taking all of this into consideration, he is still a pitcher on your team, but will require patience and tempered expectations. If/when he ever turns that corner and increases his control, you will be glad you have him on your staff.

My verdict: Hold while crossing your arms in anxious angst.

Reactions and opinions are always welcomed. Find me on twitter: @pf_hayes

Comments (0)

Baseball’s Inaugural Week is Underway

Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Baseball’s Inaugural Week is Underway

Posted on 09 April 2012 by Trish Vignola

We’re midway through the inaugural week of the 2012 Major League Baseball season. Thanks to MLB Extra Innings and a well-timed stomach virus, I have watched more baseball than I actually care to admit to. Due to the ensuing lack of sleep scrambling my brain, the following are some musings on what I saw.

For example, my Fantasy Baseball team doesn’t suck…yet. As it stands right now, Johan Santana and R.A. Dickey are my number one and number two. It’s a nice thought, but I don’t see either of them going undefeated for too long.

Speaking of the New York Mets, I just watched Terry Collins’ postgame conference. The press asked him a bunch of obnoxious questions about the team being undefeated. I immediately responded. Come on! It’s the second game of the season. Stop acting like the Mets playing decent baseball is like finding a Chupacabra. In lieu of flipping the table in disgust, Terry Collins calmly reminded those in attendance that regardless of the good or the bad stretches the team might face, they were and always would play as the Major League Baseball players they are. Regardless of how they might be the punching bag of the National League East, the Mets are still Major Leaguers. They are far better than we would ever be. Man. I like this dude.

Did you catch Jordan Norberto pitching for the Oakland A’s last night? He blatantly didn’t hustle to get off the mound to get the out at first. What made it worse was that the announcers said nothing. Has our Moneyball need to not risk injury officially gotten in the way of proper baseball fundamentals?

Did Major League Baseball really have three season launches? I understood and applauded them for a having an International Home Opener and April 5th opened the rest of the season… but can some one explain to me the Miami/St. Louis game on April 4th? If the games in Japan were to bring attention to the International game and April 5th was to launch the game across the country, what was the purpose of the Miami game counting in the standings? When did ugly architecture merit its own moment on ESPN? Man. That stadium is ugly.

With these staggered multiple openers – does it seem like these teams have been playing their first opponents for three weeks?

Did you catch the St. Louis/Kansas City game last night? Until St. Louis blew it open, that game was great. Kansas City actually hung in there with an amazing team picked to march indiscriminately over the American League. For two brief moments, the Royals were a compelling team to watch.

Did Mariano Rivera actually blow a save? That happened right?

I’m watching the Boston Red Sox get smacked around by the Detroit Tigers. My mom wants to know, why does Joe Buck call every game like it’s his last? His very boring last.

On the same subject, why is Joe Buck alluding to Bobby Valentine’s job being in jeopardy already? It’s only game two of the season. Also, didn’t the Red Sox start last season horrifically only to pull it together? If Bobby Valentine’s job is legitimately in trouble, based on what I saw today, he should be so lucky.

Comments (0)

Advertise Here
Advertise Here