Tag Archive | "Power Numbers"

Drew Stubbs, Reds OF, Sell his stock

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Fantasy Baseball Stock Watch: Buy Jose Reyes Now

Posted on 06 August 2012 by Patrick Hayes

After a week off due to vacationing in the great state of Meeeeechigan, Fantasy Baseball Stock Watch returns to wheel and deal on a few interesting major leaguers. I do realize that the trade deadline in your fantasy league may have passed already but for those that haven’t, I suggest you take my following predictions and reactions to the bank, but not the one in Greece. Yeah, yeah, enough rambling, here we go:

Jose Reyes – SS, Miami Marlins

Jose  Reyes, Marlins SS, Buy his Stock

#1 on ESPNs 5×5 Player Rater for SSs

Jose Reyes is one of the last few remaining “names” on a dissipated Miami team that was ravished before the non-waiver trade deadline. He also happens to be completely on fire of late, to the tune of a .434/.474/.755 slash line in his last 14 games. Outstanding right? Right. He also has swiped six bags in this time frame and has touched home thirteen times in this span. The only lack of production has been his six RBI’s, with a majority of these ABs coming from the three-hole. I’m not too concerned about that from a fantasy perspective though, as with any shortstop position (outside of the injured Troy Tulowitzki), you aren’t expecting jaw-dropping power numbers anyway.

Manager Ozzie Guillen has gone on record saying that with the pending return of Giancarlo Stanton expected in the next week, Reyes will continue to bat third, which is good news for current owners. Adding to the optimistic outlook is the season BABIP of .304 that Reyes has currently, which is down a tick from his career average of .313. The only downside is that the rest of the lineup is one that draws blank stares and has nothing to play for, but nonetheless, Jose is finally playing the way he has in the past and what we have came to expect.

My verdict: Buy Now Candidate

Drew Stubbs – OF, Cincinnati Reds

Drew  Stubbs, Reds OF, Sell his stock

#27 on ESPNs 5×5 Player Rater for OFs

Drew Stubbs, synonymous with being part of a group of players who has all the potential in the world, gets drafted high each year, and still continues to disappoint and break hearts. When looking at the season in a whole, that previous sentence is dead on. However, Stubbs has been on point of late. Blasting 4 HRs in the past 14 days along with 5 SBs, these are the type of power and speed stats that makes scouts and fantasy owners go gaga. The accommodating slash of .362/.415/.660 is mighty appetizing as well, which makes now the perfect time to maximize take your gains and head home.

Have you looked at his season stats? .238/.307/.399 wreaks of a havoc. If you have kept him lingering around to experience this explosion of unsustainable hope, then you might have more patience than me. Striking out at a rate of over 27% is disgusting, as well as his walk rate of 8.7%. I’ll give you credit that his BABIP is well below his career average (.300 in 2012 to .328), but I just can’t fathom putting him in the lineup for the long haul. Sure, he may get a few SBs and pop a HR out here or there, but he will also frustrate you even more so once he and the Reds start to cool down. Do the smart thing here.

My verdict: Sell High Candidate

Chase Utley – 2B, Philadelphia Phillies

Chase  Utley, Phillies 2B, Hold his Stock

#9 on ESPNs 5×5 Player Rater for 2Bs in the last 30 days

Oh, where to begin. Chase Utley has been an injury riddled shadow of what he once was. After starting the year on the DL for those terrible knees, he got off to a slow start but has been steadily getting his swagger back. Three homeruns, six RBI, two stolen bases and a line of .297/.458/.622 in the last 14 days. He knows how to draw a walk too, his eye has remained sharp as ever and is at a rate of 12.5% this year (in line with 2009 and 2010).

While the second base position might not be as scarce as it used to be in his heyday, Utley is proving to be valuable in your fantasy lineup of late. It’s almost impossible to expect a sudden reemergence of his capabilities from his peak years, but it’s equally impossible not to root for him to regain those marks. I love looking at BABIP’s and so far this year, Chase’s is well below his career average, .253 in 2012 vs .308, which provides that glimmer of hope that maybe it’s possible. But seriously now, he had a cameo in It’s Always Sunny In Philadelphia, you should hold onto his bandwagon for the rest of the year just because of that.

My verdict: Hold while nostalgically grasping your shersey from the depths of closet in remembrance of yesteryear. 

Reactions and opinions are always welcomed. Find me on twitter: @pf_hayes

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Bad Bets: Joe Mauer

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Bad Bets: Joe Mauer

Posted on 07 June 2012 by Dennis Lawson

Polamalu and Mauer

The Twins have already paid over $57M to Joe Mauer since he started playing for them in 2004, and the team just reached the 1/3 mark of the 2nd season of the mega-contract that pays Mauer $184M over 8 years.  For approximately the first $30M of the contract extension, Mauer has played in just 134 games and hit .292/.379/.388/.767 with 6 HR and 55 RBI.  Even if Mauer picks up the pace significantly, will this contract turn out to be a bad bet?

Odds certainly appear to be against the 3-time Gold Glove award winner and 1-time American League MVP.  He has played in more than 140 games in a season only once.  Granted, he plays the most physically demanding position on the field, but the Twins have always had the option to play him at DH for a pseudo day off.  If the team wishes to get the best return on its investment in Mauer, perhaps that option needs to come into play more frequently in the future.  While he likely will not post anything quite like the .365/.444/.587/1.031 line he posted in his MVP year of 2008, he could benefit from fewer catching duties.

Keep in mind that Mauer has only hit more than 15 HR in a season once (28 in 2008).  He has a career slugging percentage of .468 and an OPS of .872.  Despite a solid RBI total in 2012 of 25, Mauer’s slash line currently lags his career line just slightly.  His 2012 numbers are .298/.407/.419/.826 which falls well short of his career line of .322/.403/.468/.826.  While the perceived declined could only be a small divot for a guy in his age 29 season, the lack of power numbers has to be a concern.  The Twins have Mauer signed through his age 35 season in 2018, and he needs to deliver more production to earn his $23M per year salary.

That seems quite unlikely, and Mauer’s performance may lead others to question the sagacity of paying a catcher $20M+, unless that catcher hits for power.  If a highly paid catcher does not hit for power, then moving him to 1st base or DH later in his career creates a bit of a power vacuum.  Given the limited upside projections for the Twins’ budget, the thought of Mauer and Justin Morneau eating up $37M a year for both 2012 and 2013 obviously limits the team’s ability to make a splash in free agency or even trade either of the 2 players.

Based on salary constraints and market size, it appears that the Twins have backed themselves into a corner for the near future.  Maybe Mauer will turn out to be worth every penny and then some, but the early returns look shaky.  Granted, hindsight should be something close to 20-20, but some warning signs appeared before the contract extension came to pass.  If you look only at his full seasons from 2005-2010, Mauer averaged just above 5.0 WAR per season which by itself helps make a case for the extension.  However, He only scored 489 runs, hit 75 HR, and drove in 455 during that stretch.

The contract extension was basically structured for a slugging 1B, but it was offered to a catcher who hits for average.  Regardless of where you stand on Mauer’s potential value over the coming years, that generality seems like a bad bet in principle alone.

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DOs And DONTs: Los Angeles Dodgers

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DOs And DONTs: Los Angeles Dodgers

Posted on 15 February 2012 by Gary Marchese

Editor’s Note: The 2012 Los Angeles Dodgers might be a franchise in the middle of being sold, near bankruptcy and struggling for an identity.  That does not, however, mean that they cannot help you this year in your fantasy league.  Here is a look at do’s and don’ts for the Dodgers.

Do look at the Dodgers outfield.  They have quite an outfield with Andre Ethier, Matt Kemp, Juan Rivera and Jerry Sands.  Matt Kemp was a triple crown candidate last season, Ethier is a good young player and Sands is up and coming.  Rivera is a solid veteran, you have plenty of outfield choices just on the Dodgers alone.  Ethier was at 292, 11, 62 last year with a 368 on base percentage.  Kemp was 324, 39, 126 with a 399 on base and 40 stolen bases.  Sands was at 253, 4, 26 last year in 61 games.  The Dodgers have high hopes for him though and he flashed some of that potential.  Rivera was 258, 11,74 with a 319 on base percentage.  I would put Ethier and Kemp high on my list, Sands good if your in a keeper league and Rivera as a good backup/bench player.

Don’t even look at the Dodgers catchers.  They really don’t have any catchers worth looking at.  They had Russell Martin and gave him away, I wonder what they think of that now.  Matt Trainor may be their starter now and he hit 214 last season with three homeruns and 22 RBI.  A.J. Ellis is a young player who played in 31 games last year hit 271 with two homeruns and 11 RBI.  Who knows what Ellis is, I would stay away from the Dodgers catchers.

Do consider James Loney a legitimate option at first base.  He hit 288 with 12 homeruns and 65 RBI last season.  He would like to improve on his power numbers but his on base was also at 339.  He hit’s a lot of doubles.

Don’t think Juan Uribe is a starter any longer.  He is a veteran but he is getting older and last year may be more of the norm for him.  He batted 204 last year with four homeruns and 28 RBI.  I would like to believe he will improve on that but how much so??  I wouldn’t think he would jump up to like 250 or so with 20 homeruns and 60 RBI.  I wouldn’t waste a pick on him.  He did only play 77 games last year and the two prior years hit 248 and 289 with 24 and 16 in homeruns.  I wouldn’t bet on him getting back to that level again though.

Do believe in the hype and potential of Dee Gordon.  He has been talked about as a future star and he has a good bloodline with his father being Tom “Flash” Gordon.  He hit 304 with 11 RBI in 56 games last season.  His on base percentage was 325 and he also had 24 stolen bases.  I would especially take him in a keeper league.  He is only 23 years old, will turn 24 in April and has his whole career ahead of him.

Don’t take too much time looking at the Dodgers relievers.  Todd Coffey, Blake Hawksworth and Kenley Janson are the names you know.  Coffey had a decent year but still not dominating and usually you want dominating relievers for fantasy teams.  You need the strikeout numbers, wins and the ERA.

On the flip side I would say I Do to their starting pitching.  They have Ted Lilly, Clayton Kershaw, Chad Billingsley, Aaron Harang and Chris Capuano.  Kershaw is one of the best in baseball, Billingsley had a disappointing year last year but is still a young pitcher with potential, Lilly to me is one of the most underrated players in baseball, Harang is solid and Capuano can be a decent back of the rotation guy or reserve pitcher on your fantasy team.  Kershaws numbers:21-5 with a 2.28 ERA, five complete games and two shutouts.  He had 248 strikeouts and a .98 WHIP.  Billingsley:11-11 with a 4.21 ERA, one complete game, 152 strikeouts and a 1.45 WHIP.  Lilly was 12-14 with a 3.97 ERA, 158 strikeouts and a 1.16 WHIP.  Harang 14-7 with a 3.64 ERA, 124 strikeouts and a 1.37 WHIP.  Capuano who could be their fifth starter was 11-12 with a 4.55 ERA, one complete game and one shutout.  He had 168 strikeouts and a 1.35 WHIP.  Capuano would be the least likely to draft but could be an emergency signing or a backup pitcher.  He may not be that great but he also isn’t that bad.

Don’t be fooled by the name of Tony Gwynn.  He isn’t like his father at all.  He hit 256 with two homeruns and 22 RBI last season.  He did play 136 games and had a 308 on base percentage.  He did have 22 stolen bases.

Do take Jerry Hairston as a very capable backup outfielder or utility guy.  He hit 270 last year with five homeruns and 31 RBI.  He isn’t a big power guy and won’t drive in a ton of runs but he is a solid backup.  He could also steal some bases although last season he only had three.

I know I did less overall Dos and Don’ts in this article but I felt I covered more players.  I grouped a lot more into one paragraph such as the relievers, starters and catchers.  If you feel I missed anyone or would like to add to anything I said please feel free to comment here on the site.  If you have a twitter account feel free to follow me and interact with me there @gmarchesej, the site is also on face book, please like Full Spectrum baseball and comment and like the articles there.  Thank you for visiting and reading not just my articles but our whole team of talented writers.  I hope you look forward to these articles as I have a lot of fun looking at all the different teams, I will continue to do so throughout the entire season and we will have all your baseball especially fantasy baseball needs covered.

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