Tag Archive | "National League Rookie Of The Year"

Believe It Or Not

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Believe It Or Not

Posted on 27 February 2013 by Will Emerson

That’s right folks, it’s time for a bit of “Believe it or not?”! Excited? No? What’s that? You have no idea what ”Believe it or not?” is, exactly. Oh. Well, then allow me to elaborate here.

“Believe or not?” is when I take at a look at some numbers from last season and see if I believe them or…..not. Not, people. I really thought you would get that. Anyways, what I have done is picked a few pitchers to look at and see if we should believe in their 2012 numbers. So, away we go!

Wade Miley

First up is Wade Miley. Mr. Miley actually could have won the National League Rookie of the Year Award had it not been for that no-name, out of nowhere Bryce Harper. Of course that could also speak to the weak rookie class outside of Miley, Harper and Todd Frazier. Nevertheless Miley was very solid, going 16-11, with an ERA of 3.33 and a WHIP of 1.18. Not too shabby, right? You’re darned tootin’, right. Miley is by no means an ace and no one seems to think he is either, as evidenced by his general preseason ranking in the 90s. So let’s say you’re in a 12 team fantasy league, Miley barely ranks as rosterable. Is rosterable a word? Ah, no matter. According to RotoChamp, Miley was just inside the top 25 fantasy starting picthers last season, so his current rank and general draft positions seem to show that know one believes in Miley’s 2012. But should they? Well outside of the those superficial numbers you’ve already seen, let’s look into some other numbers. Miley posted an xFIP of 3.75, which points to a good ol’ regression in ERA.  Well, if that doesn’t, that 6.66 K/9 combined with a 43.3 ground ball rate certainly should. Wins are obviously a crapshoot, but with that low amount of Ks and lowish amount of groundballs, in a hitter’s park, nonetheless, that WHIP and ERA are sure to shoot on upward. So I would tend to agree with the masses in the case of Wade Miley and say that I do not believe in his 2012 numbers.

Next up is Reds “ace” Johnny Cueto. Ya see how I put ace in quotation marks? Looking at Cueto’s 2012 numbers, he was ace-like. He was 19-9, with an ERA of 2.78 and a WHIP of 1.17. Dems right there are Cy Young type numbers. Based on Cueto’s 2011 numbers, it does not appear the 2012 numbers were completely out of nowhere. In 2011 Cueto was 9-5 with an ERA of 2.31 and a WHIP of 1.09, so the 2012 numbers were not completely unprecedented, although you will notice the slight increase in ERA and WHIP. However, while those numbers are great and all, he also posted a 3.90 xFIP in ’11 and a 3.65 xFIP ’12, well above his ERAs for those respective seasons. Cueto’s ERA and WHIP are due for a sizeable regression and with a career K/9 under seven, I don’t see him being a top 20 fantasy pitcher in 2013. So I guess I am saying I do not believe in Cueto’s 2011 or 2012 numbers. I’m not saying that he will be a flop in ’13, but I tnink he should be drafted as a three or four SP, instead of a one or two, which is where it appears he is being taken in early fantasy drafts.

Next up, we have former Cy Young Award winner, Timmy Lincecum. Lincecum had, without a doubt, his worst season in the majors, in 2012. An ERA over 5?! What?! That’s right the former Cy Young Award winner who posted a sub three ERA in 2011 had an ERA over five in 2012. However, his xFIP was 3.82 which is not great, but much, much, much better than his actual ERA. Plus, he still posted a K/9 over nine, so he was still striking guys out in 2012. The biggest problem for Lincecum in 2012 were walks and the longball. Lincecum had a 4.35 BB/9 and a HR/FB of 14.6%. Timmy’s fly ball rate was about the same as it has been over the past few seasons, but when batters were putting balls in the air against Lincecum in 2012 they were putting them over the fence at almost twice of his 2011 rate. Now there was a slight increase in hard hit balls for Lincecum, so expecting the Cy Young Award winning Tim Lincecum to show up in 2013 may be a bit of a stretch, but I would say you can expect much better than 2012. So when it comes to Lincecum’s 2012 numbers, I would say I do not believe in them that much. You will see a stat line in the middle of Lincecum’s 2011 and 2012 numbers.

So there ya have it kids. What did we learn this week? Well with regards to these three pitchers, I guess I don’t believe in any of their 2012 numbers. Maybe I should have just called this article, “Three Pitchers Whose 2012 Numbers I Just Plain Don’t Believe In”? Eh, seems a bit wordy, don’t ya think? Anyways, to be fair, it’s not like I was being all negative in my disbelief, right? I did not believe in Lincecum’s 2012 numbers, but in a good way. Unlike with Miley and Cueto, I do believe Lincecum’s numbers will improve over his 2012 campaign. So for now, take a tip from Journey and don’t stop believin’. Or, I guess, based on this post, don’t start believin’?

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Baseball’s Best Kept Secret – Emilio Bonifacio

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Baseball’s Best Kept Secret – Emilio Bonifacio

Posted on 16 February 2012 by Trish Vignola

The Miami Marlins may have a new name, a new uniform and a new look, but what’s going to happen when a ball is hit to center?  The news broke this Monday (February 13th) that outfielder Yoenis Cespedes agreed to a four-year contract with the A’s thus turning down Miami’s offer. CBS Sports presumes that means Emilio Bonifacio will start in center field for the newly minted Miami Marlins. They cite new manager Ozzie Guillen’s interview with a Miami radio station, “Bonifacio would’ve have been my center fielder no matter if Cespedes was here.”  Guillen continued, “If Cespedes (came) to the Marlins, he would have had to make the ball club.” Guillen is great for a sound bite.  However, is Bonifacio an actual lock for the position?

How soon we forget Chris Coghlan?  Two years ago, he was National League Rookie of the Year.  He also was technically the Marlins’ everyday center fielder at the start of last season. However, an injury-plagued 2010 and inconsistent play in 2011 landed the 26-year-old in the Minor Leagues.  One has to ask if Coghlan can find a way to regain his 2009 form (.321 average, 9 HR, 47 RBI), could he throw a wrench in Guillen’s plans for Bonifacio?  He is young enough to still pull it together.

Let’s face it. Emilio Bonifacio had some pretty underwhelming career numbers until Jack McKeon took over the team last year.  Once McKeon turned him loose, Bonifacio was a completely different player.  In 89 games, he hit .310 and stole 36 bases.  Didn’t hear about it?  Why would you?  There are like 8 people at a typical Marlins home game.

With Reyes joining the core and Guillen’s reputation for turning his speedsters loose, Bonifacio looks to continue on his breakneck pace.  AccuScore is predicting 585 AB, 4 home runs, a .280 average, 44 RBIs and a whopping 42 stolen bases.  Bonifacio could be one of the best-kept secrets in Baseball.

No matter what Guillen is saying now, he has to know there are two center fielders jockeying for this spot.  Coghlan is definitely behind the eight ball but he’s still healthy enough to compete.  My money though is on Bonifacio. He hasn’t anywhere near the injuries of Coghlan and has been the picture of consistency since mid-2011.  The only strike against Bonifacio is that he has too many people waiting in the wings to take his spot.  I still predict though that Bonifacio will be starting in center on Opening Day.

So what does this mean to your fantasy baseball team?  If Bonifacio can make the roster, grab him.  If he falls to the middle, you would be absolutely insane to not take him.  He can play center, shortstop and 3rd base as well.  He’s not going to be a big bopper, but he is going to hit for some average and will steal you some major bases.  If Coghlan fades, which I predict he will, Bonifacio will be the biggest bargain of the season.  Why?  Because no one knows how well he plays…yet.

 

 

 

 

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