Tag Archive | "Mlb Trade Rumors"

Keeping The Experts Honest

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Keeping The Experts Honest

Posted on 05 April 2012 by Dennis Lawson

Predictions Are Dumb

Baseball’s spring training never lacks for unsolicited and solicited prognostications from nearly every baseball “expert” on the planet.  Some writers spend hours and hours carefully constructing logical arguments to support every possible angle they might cover in a debate.  The rest probably spend about 15 minutes slapping some names together based on ideas they have exchanged with colleagues, friends, family, and their neighbor’s best friend’s urologist.  I’m completely unconcerned with the method utilized to conceive of a person’s playoff predictions, but I find myself extremely interested in keeping track of who actually turns out to be right.  There has yet to be an organized method of aggregating experts’ playoff picks that helps facilitate a November review to pass judgment upon the experts themselves.

Until now.

This post will start with a minimal number of experts listed along with the picks the experts have gone on record as making.  If you, the reader, will kindly apprise me of additional “experts” along with a link to their picks, then the post will be updated to reflect new additions as they are submitted.

“Expert” Predictions:

MLB Trade Rumors – Tim Dierkes => AL East – Yankees, AL Central – Tigers, AL West – Angels, AL WC1 – Rays, AL WC2 – Rangers, ALCS – Tigers over Rays, NL East – Phillies, NL Central – Brewers, NL West – Giants, NL WC1 – Diamondbacks, NL WC2 – Marlins, NLCS – Phillies over Brewers, WS – Phillies over Tigers, AL MVP – Albert Pujols, NL MVP – Justin Upton, AL ROY – Yu Darvish, NL ROY – Trevor Bauer, AL CY – David Price, NL CY – Zach Greinke

MLB Trade Rumors – Mike Axisa => AL East – Yankees, AL Central – Tigers, AL West – Rangers, AL WC1 – Angels, AL WC2 – Rays, ALCS – Yankees over Rangers, NL East – Phillies, NL Central – Brewers, NL West – Diamondbacks, NL WC1 – Cardinals, NL WC2 – Dodgers, NLCS – Brewers over Cardinals, WS – Yankees over Brewers, AL MVP – Miguel Cabrera, NL MVP – Justin Upton, AL ROY – Jesus Montero, NL ROY – Devin Mesoraco, AL CY – David Price, NL CY – Stephen Strasburg

MLB Trade Rumors – Mark Polishuk => AL East – Yankees, AL Central – Tigers, AL West – Angels, AL WC1 – Rays, AL WC2 – Rangers, ALCS – Yankees over Angels, NL East – Phillies, NL Central – Brewers, NL West – Rockies, NL WC1 – Reds, NL WC2 – Cardinals, NLCS – Reds over Rockies, WS – Yankees over Reds, AL MVP – Jose Bautista, NL MVP – Troy Tulowitzki, AL ROY – Yu Darvish, NL ROY – Zach Cozart, AL CY – Felix Hernandez, NL CY – Clayton Kershaw

MLB Trade Rumors – Ben Nicholson-Smith => AL East – Yankees, AL Central – Tigers, AL West – Rangers, AL WC1 – Angels, AL WC2 – Rays, ALCS – Yankees over Rangers, NL East – Phillies, NL Central – Cardinals, NL West – Diamondbacks, NL WC1 – Marlins, NL WC2 – Reds, NLCS – Phillies over Marlins, WS – Yankees over Phillies, AL MVP – Evan Longoria, NL MVP – Justin Upton, AL ROY – Yu Darvish, NL ROY – Devin Mesoraco, AL CY – Felix Hernandez, NL CY – Roy Halladay

MLB Trade Rumors – Steve Adams => AL East – Rays, AL Central – Tigers, AL West – Angels, AL WC1 – Yankees, AL WC2 – Rangers, ALCS – Angels over Rays, NL East – Phillies, NL Central – Reds, NL West – Diamondbacks, NL WC1 – Nationals, NL WC2 – Marlins, NLCS – Phillies over Reds, WS – Angels over Phillies, AL MVP – Albert Pujols, NL MVP – Joey Votto, AL ROY – Matt Moore, NL ROY – Yonder Alonso, AL CY – Felix Hernandez, NL CY – Cliff Lee

Click here for the official MLBTR picks.

Not enough “expertise” there?  Then head over to ESPN where they are one idiot short of half-a-hundred.  Yes, ESPN had 49 different people provide picks.  I’m fine with some of the actual baseball people making picks, but do we really need to hear from the key dolly grip, the 2nd assistant sound guy, and the intern who brings sandwiches to John Kruk every 15 minutes?

Apparently so.  Don’t say I didn’t warn you, though.  Wear a helmet, and then click here.

Glutton for punishment?  Check out what the folks at YahooSports have to say.

Aside from the fact that predictions are monumental wastes of time, very few people really care enough to go back and check the predictions several months later.  The issue is not simply that people forget but that so many writers create plausible excuses for why they were wrong.  The farcical, almost-comedic attempts to cover their tracks deserve some kind of award.  Forget that.  All of it.

Almost all of the “experts” pick from a small pool of no more than 8 teams in each league to make the playoffs.  Anybody who does go off and make a crazy pick like say….the Astros gets absolutely mocked shamelessly.  Predictions are just meant to be fun.  Do not take them too seriously……unless I happen to be right.  If that happens, then feel free to congratulate me all you like.

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Edwin Jackson To The Nats

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Edwin Jackson To The Nats

Posted on 02 February 2012 by Bill Ivie

The Washington Nationals have brought home one of the top remaining free agents.  Edwin Jackson will spend 2012 pitching in the nation’s capital.

According to our friends at MLB Trade Rumors, reports are a one year deal between eight and twelve million dollars.

Jackson has spent a lot of time bouncing around the league and last season found himself at the center of the trade that sent Colby Rasmus of the St. Louis Cardinals to the Toronto Blue Jays.  The Cardinals have turned multiple pieces in that trade into 2012 supplemental draft picks, including Jackson who is a Type B Free Agent.

An effective pitcher that projects as a number two or three guy in most rotations, Jackson has found the market decidedly thin and has obviously decided that a one year deal will allow him to drift back into the market and try his hand again next season.

Year Tm W L ERA G GS CG SHO IP H R ER HR BB SO WHIP SO/BB
2003 LAD 2 1 2.45 4 3 0 0 22.0 17 6 6 2 11 19 1.273 1.73
2004 LAD 2 1 7.30 8 5 0 0 24.2 31 20 20 7 11 16 1.703 1.45
2005 LAD 2 2 6.28 7 6 0 0 28.2 31 22 20 2 17 13 1.674 0.76
2006 TBD 0 0 5.45 23 1 0 0 36.1 42 27 22 2 25 27 1.844 1.08
2007 TBD 5 15 5.76 32 31 1 1 161.0 195 116 103 19 88 128 1.758 1.45
2008 TBR 14 11 4.42 32 31 0 0 183.1 199 91 90 23 77 108 1.505 1.40
2009 DET 13 9 3.62 33 33 1 0 214.0 200 93 86 27 70 161 1.262 2.30
2010 TOT 10 12 4.47 32 32 1 1 209.1 214 111 104 21 78 181 1.395 2.32
2010 ARI 6 10 5.16 21 21 1 1 134.1 141 80 77 13 60 104 1.496 1.73
2010 CHW 4 2 3.24 11 11 0 0 75.0 73 31 27 8 18 77 1.213 4.28
2011 TOT 12 9 3.79 32 31 1 1 199.2 225 92 84 16 62 148 1.437 2.39
2011 CHW 7 7 3.92 19 19 1 1 121.2 134 55 53 8 39 97 1.422 2.49
2011 STL 5 2 3.58 13 12 0 0 78.0 91 37 31 8 23 51 1.462 2.22
9 Seasons 60 60 4.46 203 173 4 3 1079.0 1154 578 535 119 439 801 1.476 1.82
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 2/2/2012.

Jackson may be worth a look in some leagues in the middle rounds.  Buying high on the journeyman may not be well advised, but taking a shot as your number two starter will yield above average results.

Bill Ivie is the co-founder of Full Spectrum Baseball and the founder of Ivie League Productions.

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