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AL Pitching Planner: June 18 – June 24

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AL Pitching Planner: June 18 – June 24

Posted on 18 June 2012 by Mark Sherrard

This week’s AL two-start hurlers feature a pair of lefty aces, a handful of decent options and not much else.

Here are the AL two-start pitchers and other favorable matchups for Week 12:

Two-Start Pitchers

No-Brainers

C.C. Sabathia:  6/18 vs ATL; 6/24 @ NYM – His numbers aren’t as strong as last year, but still one of the best in the AL

David Price: 6/19 @ WAS; 6/24 @ PHI – gave up 7 ER in just 5 IP last time out, but still a must start

Results

Week 10 -4 GS, 2 QS, 2 W, 22.1 IP, 35 H+BB, 12 K’s, 12 ER, 4.84 ERA, 1.57 whip

YTD – 56 GS, 36 QS, 30 W, 365.2 IP, 468 H+BB, 302 K’s, 141 ER, 3.47 ERA, 1.28 whip

Not Too Shabby

Clay Buchholz: 6/19 vs MIA; 6/24 vs ATL – seems to be rolling with 4 straight starts of 7+ IP and 2 or fewer ER

Matt Harrison: 6/18 @ SD; 6/24 vs COL – 4-0 with a 1.42 ERA in last 5 starts and gets two favorable matchups to boot

Jake Peavy: 6/18 vs CHC; 6/24 vs MIL – has given up more than 3 ER only twice in his 13 starts

Tommy Milone: 6/19 vs LAD; 6/24 vs SF – a couple rough outings hasn’t scared me off, yet

Jerome Williams: 6/18 vs SF; 6/24 vs LAD – 3.84 ERA as a starter this year (11 starts)

Scott Diamond: 6/19 @ PIT; 6/24 @ CIN – has an excellent 29/6 K/BB ratio to go along with 2.13 ERA

Results

Week 10 – 17 GS, 5 QS, 5 W, 93.0 IP, 145 H+BB, 89 K’s, 66 ER, 6.39 ERA, 1.56 whip

YTD – 166 GS, 91 QS, 69 W, 1006.0 IP, 1353 H+BB, 771 K’s, 473 ER, 4.23 ERA, 1.34 whip

Risky at Best

Rick Porcello: 6/19 vs STL; 6/24 @ PIT – has a 5.18 ERA and won’t give you wins (just 4) or K’s (only 44)

Jonathan Sanchez: 6/18 @ HOU; 6/24 vs STL – occasional flashes of brilliance are overshadowed by poor outings

Jake Arrieta: 6/18 @ NYM; 6/24 vs WAS – could be good someday, just not there yet

Hector Noesi: 6/18 vs ARI; 6/24 @ SD – maybe Petco can help him keep the ball in the park (15 HR’s allowed), but I wouldn’t bet on it

Results

Week 10 – 6 GS, 2 QS, 2 W, 32.2 IP, 47 H+BB, 25 K’s, 21 ER, 5.79 ERA, 1.44 whip

YTD – 81 GS, 32 QS, 22 W, 438.1 IP, 659 H+BB, 300 K’s, 268 ER, 5.50 ERA, 1.50 whip

Other Favorable Matchups (<50% owned)

Vin Mazzaro (3% owned):  6/20 @ HOU

Has a 1.80 ERA in last 3 starts (2.57 on the season) and faces the Astros and Jordan Lyles

Kevin Millwood (18% owned): 6/21 @ SD

Has a 1.98 ERA on the season and gets to pitch in Petco

Jose Quintana (6% owned): 6/22 vs MIL

Also has a 1.98 ERA on the season and a strong minor league track record

Results

Week 10 -4 GS, 0 QS, 0 W, 20.2 IP, 38 H+BB, 14 K’s, 23 ER, 10.02 ERA, 1.84 whip

YTD -30 GS, 13 QS, 7 W, 188.2 IP, 258 H+BB, 149 K’s, 96 ER, 4.58 ERA, 1.37 whip

See ya next week.

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AL Pitching Planner: May 28 – June 3

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AL Pitching Planner: May 28 – June 3

Posted on 29 May 2012 by Mark Sherrard

This week’s AL two-starters features the reigning Cy Young/MVP as well as Detroit’s other ace.

Here are the AL two-start pitchers and other favorable matchups for Week 9:

Two-Start Pitchers

No-Brainers

Justin Verlander: 5/29 @ BOS; 6/3 vs NYY – Verlander is a must-start in all leagues, even when facing these guys

Jered Weaver: 5/28 vs NYY; 6/3 vs TEX – had one bad start after his no-hitter and that was against Texas

Doug Fister: 5/28 @ BOS; 6/2 vs NYY – still looking for his first win despite a 1.84 ERA

Results

Week 6 – 6 GS, 4 QS, 2 W, 38.2 IP, 54 H+BB, 36 K’s, 17 ER, 3.96 ERA, 1.40 whip

YTD – 43 GS, 31 QS, 24 W, 289.0 IP, 349 H+BB, 243 K’s, 101 ER, 3.15 ERA, 1.21 whip

Not Too Shabby

Matt Moore: 5/28 vs CHW; 6/3 vs BAL – hasn’t lived up to the hype, but has only given up more than 3 ER twice

Phil Hughes: 5/28 vs LAA; 6/3 @ DET – seems to have turned things around in May (3.45 ERA)

Matt Harrison: 5/28 vs SEA; 6/3 @ LAA – pitched well last time out versus Mariners

Chris Sale: 5/28 @ TB; 6/3 vs SEA – on a roll (1.85 ERA in May) and gets to face the Mariners

Daniel Bard: 5/29 vs DET; 6/3 @ TOR – walks are hurting him lately (5.96 BB/9 in May), so be careful

Felix Doubront: 5/28 vs DET; 6/2 @ TOR – has been pretty consistent so far (4.09 ERA in April, 3.86 in May)

Jake Arrieta: 5/28 @ TOR; 6/3 @ TB – has an excellent 3.31 K/BB ratio, needs to cut down on HR’s allowed

Kevin Millwood: 5/28 @ TEX; 6/3 @ CHW – 3 straight quality starts for the 37 year old

Scott Diamond: 5/28 vs OAK; 6/3 @ CLE – has been a pleasant surprise so far, with a 17/3 K/BB ratio

Results

Week 6 – 36 GS, 18 QS, 15 W, 219.1 IP, 284 H+BB, 169 K’s, 91 ER, 3.73 ERA, 1.29 whip

YTD – 115 GS, 65 QS, 48 W, 708.1 IP, 924 H+BB, 522 K’s, 310 ER, 3.94 ERA, 1.30 whip

Risky at Best

Drew Hutchison: 5/28 vs BAL; 6/3 vs BOS – got knocked around last time out and faces two good hitting teams

Nathan Adcock: 5/28 @ CLE; 6/3 vs OAK – minor league numbers don’t foretell sucess

Josh Tomlin: 5/28 vs KC; 6/3 vs MIN – coming off wrist injury, needs to prove he’s healthy

Graham Godfrey: 5/28 @ MIN; 6/3 @ KC – there haven’t been very many positives so far in his major league career

Results

Week 6 – 5 GS, 3 QS, 1 W, 28.2 IP, 40 H+BB, 20 K’s, 16 ER, 5.02 ERA, 1.40 whip

YTD – 61 GS, 24 QS, 16 W, 329.0 IP, 499 H+BB, 228 K’s, 199 ER, 5.44 ERA, 1.52 whip

Other Favorable Matchups

As with the NL, I am going to be focusing on AL pitchers owned less than 50% in CBS leagues with favorable matchup for the week (for those of you who utilize “streaming”).

Jeanmar Gomez (14% owned): 5/30 vs KC

He’s 2-2 with a 3.81 ERA against the Royals in his career and 1-1 with a 2.84 ERA in his last 3.

Blake Beavan (7% owned): 5/30 @ TEX

Beavan has a career 1.71 ERA against his home state team

Henderson Alvarez (49% owned): 6/1 vs BOS

Just under the threshold at 49%, Alvarez has given up only 1 ER in 12 IP against the Red Sox

P.J. Walters (10% owned): 6/1 @ CLE

Has never faced the Indians, which may work to his advantage.  Is a surprising 2-1 with a 2.95 ERA on the season.

Tommy Milone (49% owned): 6/1 @ KC

Milone shut the Royals out over 8 IP the last time he faced them and is 2-1 with a 2.57 ERA on the season.

Results

Week 6 – 2 GS, 0 QS, 0 W, 8.2 IP, 17 H+BB, 9 K’s, 6 ER, 6.23 ERA, 1.96 whip

YTD – 19 GS, 10 QS, 6 W, 125.2 IP, 158 H+BB, 111 K’s, 48 ER, 3.44 ERA, 1.26 whip

See ya next week.

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Buy and Sell Calls for Cellar Dwellers

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Buy and Sell Calls for Cellar Dwellers

Posted on 15 May 2012 by Dennis Lawson

 

You can't stop A Miles

While the MLB non-waiver trade deadline seems like a tiny dot in the distant future, it might be too early for some teams to pull the trigger on a big move to try and improve.  For others, it might already be too late.  Keeping in mind that not all deals come with the stipulation that the team must improve immediately, a GM in search of help would do well to consider just about anything and everything at this juncture.  As a “buyer” teams will not necessarily be subjected to inflation that often accompanies the deadline.  As a “seller”, teams may be presented with an opportunity to accomplish something that becomes more difficult after the All-Star break.

Consider the potential buyers in this market:

  • Philadelphia Phillies – Being 6.0 games behind the division leader does not point to the end of all things.  Being stuck behind 4 teams in their division with winning records does add a certain element of difficulty, though.  The return of Cliff Lee should help quite a bit, especially with that pesky -9 run differential.  Even so, this team struggles to score runs and has not adequately replaced the production lost due to Ryan Howard‘s absence.  Given the lack of production from Freddy Galvis, Jimmy Rollins, John Mayberry, and Jim Thome, it appears that the Phillies are quickly nearing a point of no return for 2012.  If they need another bat, can they put together a package around Joe Blanton that will fetch what they need?  If not, do they risk floating Cole Hamels on the market to a team in hopes of obtaining big returns?  While it might be difficult to find a suitable trading partner, the Rangers would be an interesting fit.  Maybe something involving Michael Young or Mitch Moreland and Matt Harrison could happen.
  • Milwaukee Brewers – With Rickie Weeks struggling and Alex Gonzalez out for the season, the Brewers could use someone who can play SS and spell Weeks a bit at 2B.  Aaron Miles, anyone?  The switch-hitter represents a potentially inexpensive option who can play several positions and has some mileage left on him.  A team that stands 5 games out at 15-19 could do worse.  Too bad word has it that Miles has struck a deal with the Dodgers.
  • Boston Red Sox – Jon Lester‘s ERA sits at 4.29, and he has the LOWEST ERA among the starting pitchers.  Considering the 6.5 game deficit, the Sox could be buyers, but I doubt that they can buy enough pitching to do it.
  • Los Angeles Angels – This team trails Oakland by 3.0 games for 2nd in the division.  The Angels have 5 players with 100+ at-bats this season, and 3 are hitting below .240.  The combination of big contracts and older players may limit their options greatly, but there certainly must be teams out there that covet Peter Bourjos and……..well, Peter Bourjos.

Potential sellers:

  • Minnesota Twins – When 1/3 of your hitters are below the Mendoza line, you might want to consider throwing in the towel.  If Morneau can raise his numbers just slightly, he might be attractive to a team that needs offense and can handle a good portion of his $14M for 2013 and the balance of his $14M for this season.  Moving Morneau would clear the way for Mauer to get more at-bats at DH, but it might cost the Twins some cash in the deal.  Still, this is not a team headed for the playoffs anytime soon in its current form, so it might be a good idea to implement that 3 year plan now.
  • San Diego Padres – Maybe now is the time for the Padres to also look at their 3 year plan.  If they can work on getting Andrew Cashner-type players in return, I don’t think fans would be too upset about a salary dump that would return talent to prepare the Friars for the 2014 playoff run they seem destined to make.  Since it seems unlikely that too many general managers are going to hand over guys like Cashner, they may simply want to divest themselves of some salary and bring along some minor league guys while wheelin’ and dealin’ anybody who projects to be irrelevant to their plans a few years from now.

Maybe it does seem a bit early for this, but consider the potential impact to the standing (and more importantly fantasy baseball), if 1 or more of these teams takes action.

 

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AL Pitching Planner: May 7 – May 13

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AL Pitching Planner: May 7 – May 13

Posted on 06 May 2012 by Mark Sherrard

This week’s AL pitching lineup features two starts from the reigning CY Young/MVP, as well as a bunch of risky pitchers.

Here are the two-start pitchers and other favorable matchups for Week 6:

Two-Start Pitchers

No-Brainers

Justin Verlander: 5/7 @ SEA; 5/12 @ OAK – I told you these were no-brainers

Jered Weaver: 5/7 @ MIN; 5/13 @ TEX – how will he follow-up his no hitter?

James Shields: 5/8 @ NYY; 5/13 @ BAL – Shields is 5-0, but faces a couple tough matchups

Ricky Romero: 5/8 @ OAK; 5/13 @ MIN – Facing the AL’s two worst offenses, Romero could quickly be 6-0

No-brainers results

Week 4 – 6 GS, 3 QS, 3 W, 42.1 IP, 53 H+BB, 32 K’s, 19 ER, 4.04 ERA, 1.25 whip

YTD – 23 GS, 16 QS, 14 W, 160.0 IP, 184 H+BB, 122 K’s, 48 ER, 2.70 ERA, 1.15 whip

Not Too Shabby

John Danks: 5/7 @ CLE; 5/13 vs KC – Danks has struggled a little, but has a couple favorable matchups

Neftali Feliz: 5/7 @ BAL; 5/12 vs LAA – Feliz has transitioned well to the starting role

Ivan Nova: 5/8 vs TB; 5/13 vs SEA – despite high ERA (5.58), he is 3-1 and has a 28/9 K/BB ratio

Matt Harrison: 5/8 @ BAL; 5/13 vs LAA – has had a couple bad starts in a row, but stick with him

Daniel Bard: 5/8 @ KC; 5/13 vs CLE – has adapted well to starting, just needs to cut down on the walks some

Jake Arrieta: 5/8 vs TEX; 5/13 vs TB – these are the kind of matchups that separate the men from the boys

Philip Humber: 5/7 @ CLE; 5/12 vs KC – Humber perfect game shows his stuff is good, but he is still a bit inconsistent

Jarrod Parker: 5/8 vs TOR; 5/13 vs DET – rookie has pitched well in first two starts, can he keep it up?

Duane Below:  5/8 vs SEA; 5/13 vs OAK – has not given up a run this year and faces the two worst offenses

Justin Masterson: 5/8 vs CHW; 5/13 @ BOS – only one really bad outing so far, but beware of the Red Sox

Not to shabby results

Week 4 – 24 GS, 19 QS, 10 W, 156.1 IP, 183 H+BB, 103 K’s, 50 ER, 2.88 ERA, 1.17 whip

YTD – 48 GS, 32 QS, 21 W, 309.0 IP, 373 H+BB, 219 K’s, 114 ER, 3.32 ERA, 1.21 whip

Risky At Best

Francisco Liriano: 5/7 vs LAA; 5/12 vs TOR – former future ace has fallen flat and can no longer be recommended

Jonathan Sancez: 5/7 vs BOS; 5/13 @ CHW – 19 walks in 22.1 IP so far.  Avoid until he can find the plate.

Brian Matusz: 5/7 vs TEX; 5/12 vs TB – Rangers are 1st in runs scored and Rays 5th, not good for an average pitcher

Felix Doubront: 5/7 @ KC; 5/12 vs CLE – 5.19 ERA this year and 4.99 for his career

Josh Tomlin: 5/7 vs CHW; 5/12 @ BOS – 5.27 ERA so far this year and must face Red Sox

Blake Beavan: 5/7 vs DET; 5/13 @ NYY – poor minor league record and no offensive support from teammates

Liam Hendriks: 5/8 vs LAA; 5/13 vs TOR – still hasn’t figured out how to majors leaguers out

Risky at best results

Week 4 – 4 GS, 3 QS, 2 W, 25.3 IP, 31 H+BB, 9 K’s, 11 ER, 3.91 ERA, 1.22 whip

YTD – 35 GS, 14 QS, 8 W, 190 IP, 288 H+BB, 128 K’s, 106 ER, 5.02 ERA, 1.52 whip

Other Favorable Matchups

Jon Lester: 5/9 @ KC

Lest is 5-1 with a 1.30 ERA against the Royals in his career

Jeremy Hellickson: 5/11 @ BAL

Hellickson is 4-1 with a 2.23 ERA against the Orioles

Dream Matchup:  David Price vs C.C. Sabathia – 5/10 @ NYY

Price is 5-2 with a 3.96 ERA against the Yankees, including a win this year.  Sabathia is 9-7 with a 3.25 ERA against the Rays.

Other favorable matchups results

Week 4 – 2 GS, 2 QS, 1 W, 14 IP, 15 H+BB, 13 K’s, 3 ER, 1.93 ERA, 1.07 whip

YTD – 9 GS, 6 QS, 3 W, 62.2 IP, 73 H+BB, 59 K’s, 20 ER, 2.87 ERA, 1.16 whip

That’s all for now.  See ya next week.

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