Tag Archive | "Judgment"

Keeping The Experts Honest

Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Keeping The Experts Honest

Posted on 05 April 2012 by Dennis Lawson

Predictions Are Dumb

Baseball’s spring training never lacks for unsolicited and solicited prognostications from nearly every baseball “expert” on the planet.  Some writers spend hours and hours carefully constructing logical arguments to support every possible angle they might cover in a debate.  The rest probably spend about 15 minutes slapping some names together based on ideas they have exchanged with colleagues, friends, family, and their neighbor’s best friend’s urologist.  I’m completely unconcerned with the method utilized to conceive of a person’s playoff predictions, but I find myself extremely interested in keeping track of who actually turns out to be right.  There has yet to be an organized method of aggregating experts’ playoff picks that helps facilitate a November review to pass judgment upon the experts themselves.

Until now.

This post will start with a minimal number of experts listed along with the picks the experts have gone on record as making.  If you, the reader, will kindly apprise me of additional “experts” along with a link to their picks, then the post will be updated to reflect new additions as they are submitted.

“Expert” Predictions:

MLB Trade Rumors – Tim Dierkes => AL East – Yankees, AL Central – Tigers, AL West – Angels, AL WC1 – Rays, AL WC2 – Rangers, ALCS – Tigers over Rays, NL East – Phillies, NL Central – Brewers, NL West – Giants, NL WC1 – Diamondbacks, NL WC2 – Marlins, NLCS – Phillies over Brewers, WS – Phillies over Tigers, AL MVP – Albert Pujols, NL MVP – Justin Upton, AL ROY – Yu Darvish, NL ROY – Trevor Bauer, AL CY – David Price, NL CY – Zach Greinke

MLB Trade Rumors – Mike Axisa => AL East – Yankees, AL Central – Tigers, AL West – Rangers, AL WC1 – Angels, AL WC2 – Rays, ALCS – Yankees over Rangers, NL East – Phillies, NL Central – Brewers, NL West – Diamondbacks, NL WC1 – Cardinals, NL WC2 – Dodgers, NLCS – Brewers over Cardinals, WS – Yankees over Brewers, AL MVP – Miguel Cabrera, NL MVP – Justin Upton, AL ROY – Jesus Montero, NL ROY – Devin Mesoraco, AL CY – David Price, NL CY – Stephen Strasburg

MLB Trade Rumors – Mark Polishuk => AL East – Yankees, AL Central – Tigers, AL West – Angels, AL WC1 – Rays, AL WC2 – Rangers, ALCS – Yankees over Angels, NL East – Phillies, NL Central – Brewers, NL West – Rockies, NL WC1 – Reds, NL WC2 – Cardinals, NLCS – Reds over Rockies, WS – Yankees over Reds, AL MVP – Jose Bautista, NL MVP – Troy Tulowitzki, AL ROY – Yu Darvish, NL ROY – Zach Cozart, AL CY – Felix Hernandez, NL CY – Clayton Kershaw

MLB Trade Rumors – Ben Nicholson-Smith => AL East – Yankees, AL Central – Tigers, AL West – Rangers, AL WC1 – Angels, AL WC2 – Rays, ALCS – Yankees over Rangers, NL East – Phillies, NL Central – Cardinals, NL West – Diamondbacks, NL WC1 – Marlins, NL WC2 – Reds, NLCS – Phillies over Marlins, WS – Yankees over Phillies, AL MVP – Evan Longoria, NL MVP – Justin Upton, AL ROY – Yu Darvish, NL ROY – Devin Mesoraco, AL CY – Felix Hernandez, NL CY – Roy Halladay

MLB Trade Rumors – Steve Adams => AL East – Rays, AL Central – Tigers, AL West – Angels, AL WC1 – Yankees, AL WC2 – Rangers, ALCS – Angels over Rays, NL East – Phillies, NL Central – Reds, NL West – Diamondbacks, NL WC1 – Nationals, NL WC2 – Marlins, NLCS – Phillies over Reds, WS – Angels over Phillies, AL MVP – Albert Pujols, NL MVP – Joey Votto, AL ROY – Matt Moore, NL ROY – Yonder Alonso, AL CY – Felix Hernandez, NL CY – Cliff Lee

Click here for the official MLBTR picks.

Not enough “expertise” there?  Then head over to ESPN where they are one idiot short of half-a-hundred.  Yes, ESPN had 49 different people provide picks.  I’m fine with some of the actual baseball people making picks, but do we really need to hear from the key dolly grip, the 2nd assistant sound guy, and the intern who brings sandwiches to John Kruk every 15 minutes?

Apparently so.  Don’t say I didn’t warn you, though.  Wear a helmet, and then click here.

Glutton for punishment?  Check out what the folks at YahooSports have to say.

Aside from the fact that predictions are monumental wastes of time, very few people really care enough to go back and check the predictions several months later.  The issue is not simply that people forget but that so many writers create plausible excuses for why they were wrong.  The farcical, almost-comedic attempts to cover their tracks deserve some kind of award.  Forget that.  All of it.

Almost all of the “experts” pick from a small pool of no more than 8 teams in each league to make the playoffs.  Anybody who does go off and make a crazy pick like say….the Astros gets absolutely mocked shamelessly.  Predictions are just meant to be fun.  Do not take them too seriously……unless I happen to be right.  If that happens, then feel free to congratulate me all you like.

Comments (2)

Contract Bets: Salvador Perez

Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Contract Bets: Salvador Perez

Posted on 01 March 2012 by Dennis Lawson

The Kansas City Royals have signed catcher Sal Perez to a long term deal that promises to keep him in the fold through 2016 but could last as long as 2019.  As a general rule, teams tend to do pretty well on long term deals that include more than 1 option year.  Why?  Well, those option years tend to come at the end of a contract when the annual salary tends to increase almost exponentially.   However, the general rule is usually applied to players who have a few years of established performance to aid teams in projecting performance.  The Perez deal may break the mold, so it seems like a great candidate for “Contract Bets” where we collectively pass judgment on a contract or trade and return to this same topic at a later date to continue a debate that we will table at some point here.

The Details:  The Royals have signed rookie catcher, Salvador Perez to a 5 yr / $7M with 3 option years that total around $20M.

Good Bet:  As long as Perez turns into at least a decent everyday catcher at the major league level, the bet should be good.  The Royals have protected themselves from the cost uncertainty of arbitration.  Even if Perez turns into a hybrid beast combination of Buster Posey and Brian McCann in a few years, the team won’t be on the hook from some potential 8-figure years.  If the likely worst case scenario is that he will just a solid backstop, the Royals still might realize some cost savings.  Consider a quick guess of $1.5M for the pre-arbitration years and another $5.5M for the first 2 years of arbitration.  Perez should be able to easily earn that $5.5M over 2 years.  If he turns into a top 20 catcher after 5 years, then the option years should be no-brainers for the Royals.

Bad Bet:  Maybe the Royals jumped the gun on this one just a bit.  As a standalone deal, this is possibly a push from a worst-case perspective.  However, this may very well impact the way guys like Eric Hosmer and Alex Gordon assess their relative values within the organization.  The contract by itself looks like a real win for the Royals, unless Perez absolutely falls flat or happens to be abducted by aliens.  If it does indeed lead to some unintended consequences, then that certainly does reflect somewhat poorly on this organizational decision, but that seems like a chance worth taking.  Still, it sure seems like this contract could have been done a few months from now or even after the end of the season.

My Call:  I feel almost obligated to call this a “good bet” solely on the cost certainty component.  Hopefully, this contract also sends the right message to both the team and the fan base about the Royals being serious about building for the long term.

DISCLAIMER:  I refer to contracts as good or bad bets, because we really are talking about calculating or estimating odds on something that essentially is a moving target.  Unless you can predict the future, you simply cannot know whether or not the deal will work out better for the club or the player.  Maybe this subtle semantic differentiation is not worth mentioning, but there is a notable difference between knowing about a past event or series of events and believing that you know about events yet to pass.

Comments (0)

Advertise Here
Advertise Here