As we roll on into fantasy baseball draft season us fantasy baseball players all across the land are perfecting our strategies, looking for sleepers, etcetera, etcetera. One common mantra among many a fantasy baseball participants is to not pay for saves and I for one believe in that wholeheartedly. Every major league team will have a closer, maybe two or three, come opening day, but how many will you really trust going into the upcoming season? More than 10? Maybe. I guess it depends on what you are trusting them to do. Obviously the biggest role for the closer in the realm of fantasy baseball is getting saves on a somewhat consistent basis. More or less, I would argue that a good fantasy closer is one that hangs onto that role for the full season, so let us start there. How many closers do you think will keep the closer role from start to finish?

It’s not really something I really thought much about in previous seasons as in many leagues I don’t draft a closer at all, but rather, pick some closers in waiting and keep my fingers crossed. Ryan Cook and Greg Holland were just a couple of guys I had on rosters last season, while I waited for them to become their teams closer, basically punting the saves category for a good portion of the season. It is by no means a foolproof strategy, clearly, and it’s hard to stick by. Predicting which closers will lose their jobs at some point in the season is by no means an easy endeavor. While advanced stats are not necessarily directly going to help your fantasy season, per se, they are our best way to gain some suspicions on what’s to come. I mean few, if any, leagues are going to use FIP or SIERA as direct statistics, we need to use said stats to extrapolate information to predict the future of a player, kind of like playing the stock market, if you will. But we’ll come back to that in a little bit, so sit tight. Back to how many closers you may trust to keep their closer roles for a full season. Half, maybe? Perhaps two-thirds of the closers? And of those how many would you say are dominant, absolutely reliably consistent closers? Half of them, if that? So what’s my point? My point is, the reason you don’t pay for closers is having an elite closer is not only hard to get, but hard to project. I would say maybe five to seven closers will be consistently great in 2013, and for a position with such a high rate of turnover, you’re better off trying to find those saves on the cheap later on in your draft. It is the position that can be the biggest crap shoot in fantasy baseball. Just ask 2012 Jose Valverde owners.

In 2011, Jose Valverde was the closer du jour for a good part of the season on a team that made the playoffs. Valverde put up 49 saves, blowing no save opportunities, while posting a 2.24 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP. A monster season to be sure. But I was suspicious of Valverde’s future. His FIP was 3.55 and he coupled that with a very low BABIP of .247. Now, after looking through several relievers’ numbers, the BABIP is not super concerning. Most closers seem to have low numbers in that regard. As for the FIP, well, that is something I read a bit more into. It is impressive to some degree to not blow any saves, but I think many may agree that there could be a good deal of luck involved for such a feat. That 3.55 FIP especially points to some luck for Jose in 2011. Not to toot my own horn too much, but I was very adamant that Valverde was headed for a decline and was a closer I would be avoiding come draft day 2012 and low and behold, what happened? Valverde ended up becoming so unreliable he lost that closer role in the biggest, most high stakes portion of the Tigers season. But was he really much worse than in 2011?

We already saw that Valverde’s 2011 FIP was over a run higher than his actual ERA, pointing to an eventual ERA regression. In 2012 Valverde regressed in that ever so precious fantasy baseball statistic, posting a 3.78 ERA and, as I mentioned, eventually losing the closer title for the Tigers’ playoff run. The interesting thing here though, is his FIP in 2012 was 3.62, not far from his 2011 number in that very same category. I am by no means a Valverde fan and in fact, I have been the complete opposite, downplaying his “greatness” to a large degree over the past few seasons. Right now, Valverde is a free agent and is being penalized for pitching as he should have been pitching, more or less, all along. Well, to some degree, as I am not going to get into the monetary ramifications, but obviously they play a large role as well. So, am I saying that when, not if, but when, Valverde finds a landing spot, he will become a sleeper fantasy closer no 2013? Is he a guy you should draft with a good feeling that he may fall back into a closer role in 2013? Well, let’s slow it down there a bit.

You see, the ERA should drop a tad and since not much will be expected of him, I guess you could consider him a sleeper candidate, in that regard. There’s no saying he can’t get a large dose of luck and save 50 games, but the likelihood of that happening is, well, not great. But the real reason I would not label him a sleeper in the closer capacity is a pesky little stat I have neglected to talk about thus far, his K/9 numbers. Say what you will about Jose Valverde, there was always the chance for good fantasy numbers in the past, because he could strike batters out at a good rate. Valverde’s K/9 has been 8.59 or higher every season of his career…until 2012. In 2012 Valverde’s K/9 plummeted to a terribly low 6.26 a two batter drop from 2011. Now if you had been following Valverde’s career numbers, and really I guess there would not be much of a reason for you to do so, you would have noticed that his K/9 rate has been slowly dropping every season since 2007. But the drop from 2011 to 2012 was a huge red flag, which probably means his days of closing in the major leagues are numbered.

Does Valverde deserve to be on a major league roster in 2013? I think so. Does Valverde belong on a fantasy baseball roster? Maybe, but not as number one closer, that is for darned sure. In my humble opinion, Valverde is still hands off, but as far as fantasy standards are concerned, if he gets signed he could have a shot at some saves, but looking for him to top 20, would be highly optimistic. So when draft day arrives, in case you were thinking Valverde is a sleeper and could magically put up his 2011 numbers, heed my warning and steer clear. It is best to just let undrafted Valverdes lie.

The way things are going…Mr. Met might be the closer.

Frank Francisco‘s time as Mets closer looks like it’s coming to an end. General manager Sandy Alderson signed veteran relievers Scott Atchison and LaTroy Hawkins to Minor League deals earlier this week and they still aren’t done adding bullpen help. As per mlb.com, Alderson has made “no secret” that he would like to add at least one veteran reliever to a Major League deal.

Several intriguing options are available. The Tigers did not make a serious attempt to sign Jose Valverde. Their former closer lost his ninth-inning duties during Detroit’s World Series run last season. Although 33, Valverde saved 35 games in 40 chances with a 3.78 ERA last season. Statistically speaking, that was technically his worst season in years. Valverde has saved 277 games over a 10-year career with the D-backs, Astros and Tigers. He posted a 3.11 lifetime ERA with more than a strikeout per inning.

The Mets are still gauging the health of Brian Wilson. They have scheduled a second visit to watch the former Giants closer pitch. Whether the Mets sign Wilson depends in large part upon how they assess his recovery from Tommy John surgery. In a telephone interview with mlb.com, Alderson confirmed the team’s continued interest.

Brandon Lyon is available. His checkered career includes ninth-inning duties in Arizona and Houston. Familiar face Francisco Rodriguez is available as well. He served as the Mets’ closer from 2009-11. Only 31 years old, Rodriguez could help the Mets. He would though have to accept a significant decrease from the $8 million he made last season. Francisco is infamous in New York for assaulting his girlfriend’s father following a 2010 game at Citi Field.

Rodriguez and Valverde are both represented by Scott Boras, notorious for extracting top deals for his clients. Nonetheless, mlb.com reports the Mets have made it clear that they are not going to overpay for their bullpen.

Compromise is possible. Kyle Farnsworth‘s recent deal with the Rays signaled that the market for relief pitchers has softened considerably. Farnsworth, a former closer, can make no more than $3 million through base salary and incentives.

“There are still a bunch of names out there,” the insider reported to mlb.com, indicating his club’s preference to acquire one big name as opposed to two lesser ones. “The value now with the Farnsworth signing, it’s obviously changed considerably from where it was earlier in the winter. There are still several — maybe even more than that — guys that we think can help us at the back of the bullpen.”

If the Mets sign even one of them, it could spell the end of Francisco’s time as closer. Alderson has made it abundantly clear in recent weeks that he is not committed to his incumbent ninth-inning man, who still has one year and $6 million remaining on his contract.

Francisco fell out of favor with the organization after posting a 5.53 ERA in 48 appearances last year. He then underwent surgery after the season to remove a bone spur from his right elbow. Speaking on SNY’s Hot Stove show Thursday evening, Alderson went as far as to say he is not “terribly comfortable” with the idea of Francisco as his Opening Day closer.

“Coming out of last season, looking with what Frankie has been dealing with in the offseason as far as his elbow is concerned, I don’t know that we could have a lot of confidence in where we are,” Alderson said. “I hope that Frankie is able to step up. We’ve taken a lot of the time to look at other possibilities and ways that we can shore this up. At this point, we have added some pitching, but more at the front end of the bullpen as opposed to the back end.

“I think we’re going to have another guy or two between now and Spring Training. Now whether it’s a back-end guy that will really compete with Frankie, or whether Frankie is the guy going in and the competition comes from Bobby Parnell or someone else, who knows? We’ll just have to see.”

The Detroit Tigers were a good team last  year.  They even upset the New York Yankees in the first round of the playoffs.  They lost to the Texas Rangers in the ALCS.  Detroit made some upgrades and seems to be a very strong team going into 2012.  I believe they have a bunch of fantasy keepers on their team.  Here I will take a look at some.  I would love to hear any feedback, agree or disagree.  I can be reached on twitter @gmarchesej, email gmarchesej@aol.com and comments under this article.  Thanks for reading and I hope you continue to do so with not just me but the other writers as well.

SP Justin Verlander, he is one of the best pitchers in the game today.  If you have him on your team you don’t want to give this guy up.  He will be the anchor of your pitching staff.  He is still young and has many good years ahead of him.  He won the MVP award in 2011 and will look to continue his dominance in 2012.  He was 24-5 with a 2.40 ERA and a 0.92 WHIP.  What an amazing season, in his career he is 107-57 with a 3.54 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP.

Closer Jose Valverde, you can’t argue with perfection.  I don’t really know how he did it but he did.  Valverde was perfect last year and if I had him on my team I would want to ride that for as long as I could.  There is no reason to give him up at this point.  He was 49 for 49 in save chances and 2-4 with a 2.24 ERA.  It was his best year by far but still worth holding onto and see if he can repeat it or come close to last year.

C Alex Avila is an all-star catcher with power.  He is a guy you want to hold onto.  He came up in 2010 and wasn’t great but really broke out last year.  He hit 295 with 19 homeruns and 82 RBI.  His on base was 389, a catcher with those kind of numbers you don’t want to let go of.

3B Miguel Cabrera is a hitting machine.  He is one of the best hitters in baseball.  He is a guy that you fear as an opposing pitcher.  If he is on my team there is no way I can give him up.  He is still fairly young also and in his prime.  He hit 344 last year with 30 homeruns and 105 RBI.  He is a 317 career hitter who will hit you 30+ homeruns a year.  His worst year was 26 homeruns and that was in 2006.

1B Prince Fielder left Milwaukee for a big contract with the Tigers.  He is a great power hitter though and is playing in a city where his father played.  He hit 299 with 38 homeruns and 120 RBI last year.  He will only benefit from having Cabrera in front of him in the lineup.  He hit 28 homeruns in his worst year and has hit 50 once and 46 another time.  He is a great power hitter and you need that on your team for sure.

Max Scherzer, Rick Porcello and Doug Fister all starting pitchers are guys I would look at as honorable mentions.  I don’t think they are great but they are all  young with potential.  They also aren’t that bad pitching wise.  They could all win you anywhere from 10-15 games and have an ERA around 4 at the worst, the best they may do is 3.5 to 3.8 ERA.  I would take a long look at them if they were on my team and think about keeping them.  I am not going to say they are definite keepers but they are borderline.

Mic Check, 6 - 4 - 3

Consider this a 2nd open invitation to critique a fantasy baseball draft.  Flay it open, rip into it, and do not hold back.  But…before you do any flaying, ripping, or holding, consider the rules of etiquette.

• Avoid the low-hanging fruit.  No references to anyone’s mom or a basement.
• Try to omit words like “idiot”, “moron”, and “clueless”.  You will only receive the “I know you are but what I am” classic retort.  Welcome to the baseball kindergarten playground.  My Tonka truck is over there in the corner of the sand box.  Leave it alone.
• Just assume that I’m aware of my mental health state, and I’m considered competent to drive a Segway on the sidewalks in my neighborhood.

When I wrote the original “Open Mic” piece, I was in the middle of a slow draft on Twitter for a 5×5 fantasy league.  Now seems like a good time to revisit that draft and bare my baseball soul for all to see.  Here is the end result for all 25 rounds along with a defense for some (if not all) of the picks.

1. Robinson Cano (2B) – 104 runs, 28 hr, 118 rbi, 8 steals, .882 ops
2. Jered Weaver (P) – 18 wins, 2.41 era, 0 saves, 198 strikeouts, 1.010 whip
3. Clayton Kershaw (P) – 21 wins, 2.28 era, 0 saves, 248 strikeouts, 0.977 whip
4. Asdrubal Cabrera (SS) – 87 runs, 25 hr, 92 rbi, 17 steals, .792 ops
5. Alex Gordon (OF) – 101 runs, 23 hr, 87 rbi, 17 steals, .879 ops
6. Shin-Soo Choo (OF) – 37 runs, 8 hr, 36 rbi, 12 steals, .733 ops
7. Ben Zobrist (OF) – 99 runs, 20 hr, 91 rbi, 19 steals, .822 ops
8. Aramis Ramirez (3B) – 80 runs, 26 hr, 93 rbi, 1 steal, .871 ops
9. David Freese (CI) – 41 runs, 10 hr, 55 rbi, 1 steal, .791 ops
10. Josh Beckett (P) – 13 wins, 2.89 era, 0 saves, 175 strikeouts, 1.026 whip
11. Jose Valverde (P) – 2 wins, 2.24 era, 49 saves, 69 strikeouts, 1.189 whip
12. Ricky Romero (P) – 15 wins, 2.92 era, 0 saves, 178 strikeouts, 1.138 whip
13. Alex Avila (C) – 63 runs, 19 hr, 82 rbi, 3 steals, .895 ops
14. Ryan Vogelsong (P) – 13 wins, 2.71 era, 0 saves, 139 strikeouts, 1.252 whip
15. Nick Swisher (1B) – 81 runs, 23 hr, 85 rbi, 2 steals, .822 ops
16. Jhonny Peralta (MI) – 68 runs, 21 hr, 86 rbi, 0 steals, .824 ops
17. Jaime Garcia (P) – 13 wins, 3.56 era, 0 saves, 156 strikeouts, 1.320 whip
18. Vance Worley (P) – 11 wins, 3.01 era, 0 saves, 119 strikeouts, 1.230 whip
19. Allen Craig (OF) – 33 runs, 11 hr, 40 rbi, 5 steals, .917 ops
20. Josh Willingham (OF) – 69 runs, 29 hr, 98 rbi, 4 steals, .810 ops
21. Jason Motte (P) – 5 wins, 2.25 era, 9 saves, 63 strikeouts, 0.956 whip
22. Jair Jurrjens (P) – 13 wins, 2.96 era, 0 saves, 90 strikeouts, 1.224 whip
23. Matt Joyce (OF) – 69 runs, 19 hr, 75 rbi, 13 steals, .825 ops
24. Russell Martin (UTIL) – 57 runs, 18 hr, 65 rbi, 8 steals, .732 ops
25. Melky Cabrera (UTIL) – 102 runs, 18 hr, 87 rbi, 20 steals, .809 ops

In my own defense, I am just a huge Robinson Cano fan and think he could actually improve on last year.  On the other hand, I am putting a lot of faith in guys like Choo and Freese who lost significant time last season due to injury.  I admit to trying a catch a flyer (or three), but I believe I am taking chances on the right kinds of players.

Post-mortem:

• I am already on record as stating that Cano is a stretch at the #1 pick.  However, I went with my philosophy that creating a substantial differential by stocking up on players at positions I deem shallow will help me success in the long term.  I consider Cano and Zobrist to be 2 of the top 8 guys at 2B.  Since snagging both also impacts the pool of available middle infielders (MI), I believe I may have given myself an advantage.
• In theoretically giving myself an advantage, did I give up too much by not taking a top 3 guy at 1B.  Probably.  Possibly.  Dunno.  Though he is currently listed as an outfielder by Yahoo, Alex Gordan will be the man 1B for my team.  I truly expect him to be a top 10 guy at 1B, and I do not believe that the distinction between top 3 and top 10 at that position is enough to worry me.
• I am to blame for starting a bit of an early run on starting pitchers, but Roy Halladay and Justin Verlander were both drafted early.  Actually, Halladay went at the end of the first round, and Verlander went in the middle of round 2.  The next two on my list were Kershaw and Weaver, so I took both.  Honestly, I do not regret the move at all, because the pitching staff could very well be the strength of this team.
• Combining closers Valverde and Motte may be a bit of a gamble, but I tend to favor closers on teams that I believe will win a lot of games.  Drew Storen was a very tempting choice over Motte, but I just do not know what to expect from the Nationals this year.

Stealing Late:

• There are several definitions of a “steal” in fantasy drafts.  My definition is picking up a player 2 or more rounds later than you expected OR drafting a player so late that you celebrate with a “man giggle”.  (NOTE: It is technically possible for both men and women to “man giggle”, but it is way funnier when a woman does it.)  Maybe I am wrong about Worley, but I was sure shocked to see him still on the board for my 18th pick.  He only started 21 games in 2011 and threw 131 2/3 innings.  If he gets another 8-10 starts, he projects to be a top 30 starter.  The fact that he was still available in the 18th round may only be slightly less surprising than Jurrjens being available in the 22nd round.
• Melky Cabrera in the 25th round?  At that point most people are looking for a guy who maybe excels in one stat category or had a really off year.  Not this time.  Cabrera is coming off a season in which he posted a .809 ops, and his move to San Francisco does not scare me off at all.   His power numbers might suffer a little, but he may simply fill the stat sheet everywhere else.

That is it.  Have at it, but try to be kind.  If not for me, then do it for the children’s sake.

(image courtesy of Topps)

Contract year.  Walk year.  Opt-out year.  Whatever the year, we have it covered for anybody having trouble keeping score at home.  Some really big name players may very well be playing their final seasons with their respective teams, and you just might find that information useful.  If you happen to play in a keeper league (or 6), then you may find that information especially useful when thinking long term.  Here is a list of 10 players who are potentially just months away from free agency.

1. Cole Hamels – Hamels just turned 28, and he is coming off of arguably his best season ever (2.79 ERA and 0.986 WHIP).  While most sources in the rumor mill have Hamels staying put in Philadelphia, just the thought of him moving to a team that does not win 90+ games every season may be a concern for some fantasy players.  Then again, there are some who are already penalizing Hamels for the loss of Ryan Howard at 1B.  Seems like a terrible way to run a railroad, but it is not my railroad.
2. Daisuke Matsuzaka – If Dice is completely healthy and has all of his pitches, then he could be both a comeback story and a late round pickup with a lot of upside.  The problem with this scenario could be that Dice has not a top shelf guy since 2008.  Maybe a contract year will motivate him enough to do all the little things that some people previously stated that he was disinterested in doing.  At 31, he could certainly have a few good years left.
3. Jose Valverde – Imagine having a top 10 closer in the final year of a 3 year deal that pays him $9M for 2012.  Then imagine that your closer will turn 34 shortly before the season starts, and he could reasonable ask for a $10M/season deal after 2012.  If the Tigers fail to sign him, then you can bet that someone will.  Then again, Valverde seems like pretty much the same guy whether he cashes huge paychecks or relatively small ones.
4. Yadier Molina – Molina has reportedly set the asking price at 5 years / $50M which seems expensive, unless he and one of his brothers are offering some 2-for-1 special on Molinas.  On the other hand, Molina did explode offensively last year (by Molina standards) for a 3.9 WAR year.  A couple more years like 2011 would certainly make him worth the asking price.  What are the odds that he has another 3.0+ WAR season?  Hard to say, but he has shown up at spring training dropping the “BSOML” line on everybody within shouting distance.  That “BSOML” stands for “best shape of my life”.
5. Brandon Phillips – Phillips is just about to start the final year of a contract that pays him $38M over 5 years, and this final year is worth $12M.  Consider the extension that Rickie Weeks signed with the Brewers as a starting point for Phillips.  To earn that kind of deal, he may have to duplicate his 2011 numbers at the plate.  With something like $10M+ per season as potential motivation, I cannot imagine that Tony Plush won’t at least try to deliver an encore performance in 2012.
6. Matt Cain – The Giants are built around great pitching and the hope that Barry Zito‘s contract expires eventually.  Cain is an integral part of that plan, but imagine his open market value in free agency.  At age 27, Cain has compiled a career ERA of 3.35 and a 1.196 WHIP while pitching 200 or more innings every season for the last 5 years.  For 2012, Cain is playing out the back end of a 3 yr / $27.25M contract that was back loaded with a $15M salary for 2012.  Unless Cain falters, that might be the starting point in discussions for a guy who may command a 6-7 year deal.
7. Ubaldo Jimenez – Tricky situation.  If Ubaldo returns to his old form, his $5.275M option for 2013 is a no brainer.  If he doesn’t look good, then the $1M buyout would be money well spent.  Here is the catch, though.  Jimenez should be motivated both in 2012 and 2013 to see that option exercised and to possibly see his $8M option for 2014 picked up as well.  Will the additional motivation of job and contract security be enough to get him back to the dominant force he once was.  Maybe.  Keep in mind that he’s only a few years removed from being a  top 3 Cy Young candidate.
8. Zach Greinke – Greinke posted a ridiculous 10.5 strikeouts per 9 innings rate in 2011.  If any of his other numbers improve to that level, he will be able to basically hold a press conference, show his stat line, and drop the mic as he walks off the stage.  The problem is that his ERA+ for the past 2 years is 102 and 100 respectively.  Greinke held his WHIP to 1.200 in 2011, but that is actually lower than his career WHIP.  The issue is not about how good Greinke can be.  The issue is whether or not he can catch lightning in a bottle again.
9. Shaun Marcum – If somebody told you that Shaun Marcum had outpitched Greinke for the past 2 years, would you believe them.  Well, you are being told right now.  Marcum 2010 numbers (115 ERA+, 1.147 WHIP, 3.84 SO/BB) and 2011 numbers (110 ERA+, 1.156 WHIP, 2.77 SO/BB) compare favorably to Greinke’s numbers over the same time period.  Greinke’s 2010 numbers (100 ERA+, 1.245 WHIP, 3.29 SO/BB) and 2011 numbers (102 ERA+, 1.200 WHIP, 4.47 SO/BB) are obviously not quite as good.  While I may be guilt of cherry picking the stats here a bit, I am fairly confident that you will not find too many counting stats that make Greinke look like the winner of this match race.  If you are not convinced, then maybe the 6.9 WAR to 4.0 WAR advantage for 2010-11 held by Marcum will convince you.  Marcum really is good, and he deserves to be paid like the solid front line starter that he is.
10. Josh Hamilton – Hamilton may not break the bank with his next deal due to concerns about his age and ability to stay on the field, but he is not likely to be an afterthought, either.  Hamilton once posted a 1.536 OPS against the Yankees (2010 ALCS).  That alone might be enough reason to keep him in Texas, although the 20.2 WAR in 5 seasons does not hurt, either.

Obviously, not every player on this list will have a “career year”, but at least most will be motivated to have a great season right out of the gate.  You could say that is the case for all players, but we already know that is not exactly true.