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The Hump Day Look See 5/30/12 – Panic in pitchertown!

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The Hump Day Look See 5/30/12 – Panic in pitchertown!

Posted on 30 May 2012 by J. Ellet Lambie

The Hump Day Look See is your weekly Wednesday foray into all things fantasy baseball. Sneaky stat lines, rapid risers, trends and tricks to help maximize your roster are all celebrated here. Equal parts analysis and common sense with a splash of humor, served fresh every Wednesday morning right here on Full Spectrum Baseball.

THE END IS NIGH! RUN FOR THE HILLS!

That is, if you happen to own Roy Halladay or Jered Weaver, who were both shelved this week with injuries. Halladay is expected to miss 6-8 weeks, there is not yet a timetable for Jered Weaver to resume his duties on the bump. Also hobbling to the sidelines in the past two weeks: Ted Lilly, John Danks, Danny Duffy and Marco Estrada. LIGHT THE LANTERNS AND HEAD FOR THE SHELTER!

Or….you could look elsewhere on the disabled list to names such as Brandon McCarthy, Jonathan Sanchez and Vance Worley – all three should return in the next week and change. Aces they are not, serviceable stop gaps that could become more? Sure, it’s possible.

And don’t forget to frantically check the free agent pool in all of your leagues for Roy Oswalt, now that he has agreed to join the Texas Rangers. I have to imagine we’re looking at a couple of weeks minimum of stretching him out before he toes a major league rubber, so don’t expect a miracle this week. Also of note, his career OPS against at Ameriquest (Arlington) is .878, with a 4.78 ERA and 9 HR allowed in 52.2 innings pitched. Caveat Emptor my friends.

I had a couple of inquiries following the first HDLS post last week, wondering why I listed the top 10 added and dropped hitters, but not pitchers. A fair question. With a decent percentage of players in ESPN standard 5 x 5 rotisserie leagues streaming pitchers each week, I’ve found it skews the numbers, and paints a confusing picture. So to balance the coverage, I’ll make an effort to highlight pitching options in other ways each week – see above. You can also check out the AL and NL weekly Pitching Planning posts right here at Full Spectrum Baseball.

Top 10 Added Hitters in ESPN Standard Leagues – Last 14 Days:

Player % Add/Drop %
owned
Notes
Dayan Viciedo CWS – OF +52.8 83.2 #4 last week, added +20% since. 22/55 with 7 HR, 20 RBI in last 15 games.
Jeff Francoeur KC – OF +40.1 81.2 Frenchy is too good to have been that bad for that long, .375 with 4 bombs in last 15, hope you bought low.
Jonathan Lucroy MIL – C +34.4 78.4 News of his broken hand will put out this fire, but keep him on your watch list for mid/late July.
Justin Morneau MIN – 1B +33.1 91.3 5 HR and 16 steaks since his return from the DL. If he stays on the field he should stay in your lineup.
Mitch Moreland TEX – 1B/OF +33 87.1 On the fringe last week. Multi-position eligible, power stroke like the weather, getting warmer.
Chris Davis BAL 3B/1B +25 74.4 6th most dropped last week, streaky hitter that will inspire the Yo-Yo effect.
A.J. Pierzynski CWS – C +22.3 85.6 Top 5 among ALL catchers in Hits, Runs, HR, RBI – How is he still available in 15% of leagues?
Jed Lowrie HOU – 3B/SS +17.1 94.6 Health and a change of scenery have done wonders – 1/2 of his HR (4 of 8) in last 15 games.
A.J. Ellis LAD – C +16.5 28.2 Almost June and still hitting .315, smells like a regression candidate to me (.282 career), but he’s extra scrappy.
Michael Brantley CLE – OF +15.8 37.5 Hit safely in 8 straight games, 7 RBI and 6 SB in that stretch.

And the Yang of failure, also known as the 10 most dropped:

Player %
Add/Drop
%
owned
Notes
Cody Ross BOS – OF (DL) -37.3 27.3 Victim of nervous injury drops, might be back in a couple of weeks.
Chipper Jones ATL – 3B (DL) -37.2 47.3 Hopes to return soon, surgery to drain fluid from his leg not an encouraging sign.
Lance Berkman STL – 1B/OF -22.4 49.8 Residual dropping from 6-10 week prognosis of last week.
Miguel Montero ARI – C -21.7 67.9 Missed 5 games with a groin injury, signed a massive new deal, still hitting .248 with only 2 HR’s, but OBP .342 – excellent buy low candidate.
Torii Hunter LAA – OF -13.6 61.4 Hangover droppage from time away for family issues. Returns Tuesday night.
Bryan LaHair CHC – 1B/OF -12.9 87.1 Returned to earth with a miserable week. 3 for 4 Monday, but likely to sit against lefties (3-22 this season).
Emilio Bonifacio MIA – 2B/SS/3B (DL) -11.2 86.7 Oh sweet Emilio, curse your balky thumb. Out for a while but speed doesn’t slump, keep your eyes on him close to his return.
Jon Jay STL – OF (DL) -8.8 29.4 Could be back in 10-14 days, should resume a starting role then. 9 Hits and 8 Runs in final 10 games before injury.
Jemile Weeks OAK – 2B -8.2 51.5 .235 with 3 Runs, 1 SB, 0 HR, 0 RBI in last 15 games. Perhaps track is his forte.
Robert Andino BAL – 2B/SS/3B -7.8 31.4 Ladies and gentlemen, this is what regression to the mean looks like while wearing an orange hat.

And for the value shopper, this week’s 5 Under 50 – five players owned in less than 50% of ESPN standard leagues that can help your roster right now. Last week I recommended Anthony Bass of the Padres, who then proceeded to have his worst outing of the year, arguably. Consider this proof I am not in fact omnipotent. With that being said, stick with the kid, he’s been far more good than bad this season. I also pointed a finger at Joe Blanton, insert joke here. On the upside, Alcides Escobar, J.P. Arencibia and Daniel Nava did not burst into fantasy flames (Arencibia did hit .136, but had 2 HR), so I suppose there is hope after all.

Paul Goldschmidt ARI – 1B 35.4%: He hit a 471 foot HR the other day. Not kidding. 471 feet. The former prized prospect has hit in 7 straight games through Monday, with 4 doubles and 7 runs scored over that span. He’s at least worth a stash if you’re thin at 1B short term.

Michael Brantley CLE – OF 37.5%: As mentioned above in the most added section (#10), he’s been hitting and running and doing all sorts of fun fantasy things. If he keeps it up he’ll be ineligible for this category in no time.

Gregor Blanco SFG – OF 19.6%: 21 runs scored with a .397 OBP in 95 at-bats from the leadoff spot this year. Sustainable long term? Eh, perhaps not, but even with a bit of a slide he’ll remain above average. 6 steals on the year to boot.

Casey Janssen TOR – RP 46.6%: He’s picked up 4 saves since taking over closer duties in Toronto, and boasts a respectable 2.89 ERA and an impressive 0.91 WHIP in that time. Most closers suffer a hiccup here and there, and he won’t be immune, but he should bolster your bottom line more than he hurts it.

Homer Bailey CIN – SP 12.5%: As I type this Bailey just nailed down complete game win, allowing 1 run on 4 hits against the Pirates. That’s 3 straight wins and 4 consecutive starts with 3 or fewer earned runs allowed. He’s walked 5 in those starts while striking out 21.

Your questions and thoughts are welcomed, and encouraged, both here in the comments and on twitter @lembeck451. All stats accurate as of 10 PM EDT 5/29/12. 

 

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AL Pitching Planner: May 14 – May 20

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AL Pitching Planner: May 14 – May 20

Posted on 13 May 2012 by Mark Sherrard

Like their NL counterparts, the AL also has a full slate of games for all its teams, giving you numerous two-start choices for the week.

Here are the Week 7 two-start pitchers and favorable matchups:

Two-Start Pitchers

No-Brainers

C.C. Sabathia: 5/15 @ BAL; 5/20 vs CIN – he’s 16-2 with a 2.86 ERA against the Orioles and 4-1 and 2.33 against the Reds.  Oh, and he’s an ace.

David Price: 5/15 @ TOR; 5/20 vs ATL – Tampa ace is pitching well, despite hiccup against the Yankees

Jake Peavy: 5/15 vs DET; 5/20 @ CHC – starting to remind many of the Peavy of old

No-brainers results

Week 5 – 6 GS, 6 QS, 4 W, 44.1 IP, 43 H+BB, 51 K’s, 10 ER, 2.03 ERA, 0.97 whip

YTD – 29 GS, 22 QS, 18 W, 204.1 IP, 227 H+BB, 173 K’s, 58 ER, 2.56 ERA, 1.11 whip

Not Too Shabby

Jon Lester: 5/14 vs SEA; 5/19 @ PHI – Phillies are struggling without Chase Utley & Ryan Howard, Mariners still can’t hit

Dan Haren: 5/14 vs OAK; 5/19 @ SD – back troubles may push back his 5/14 start, but has two good matchups if he goes

Brandon Morrow: 5/14 vs TB; 5/19 vs NYM – has won 4 straight

Ervin Santana: 5/15 vs OAK; 5/20 @ SD – two weak teams against a good starter

Josh Beckett: 5/15 vs SEA; 5/20 @ PHI – only two good matchups keep him from being dropped a level

Max Scherzer: 5/15 @ CHW; 5/20 vs PIT – two straight quality starts and two favorable matchups

Colby Lewis: 5/15 vs KC; 5/20 @ HOU – amazing 43/6 K/BB ratio

John Danks: 5/14 vs DET; 5/19 @ CHC – pitched well last time out and has a favorable matchup against the Cubs

Ivan Nova: 5/14 @ BAL; 5/19 vs CIN – has been inconsistent so far this year, but has strong offense behind him

Henderson Alvarez:  5/15 vs TB; 5/20 vs NYM – 2.61 ERA despite just 14 K’s in 48.1 IP

Jason Vargas: 5/15 @ BOS; 5/20 @ COL – tough matchups including a trip to Coors, but only 2 ER in last two starts

Jeff Niemann: 5/14 @ TOR; 5/19 vs ATL – pitching well, just needs some more run support

Wei-Yin Chen: 5/15 vs NYY; 5/20 @ WAS – 3-0 with a 2.68 ERA so far this year

Derek Lowe: 5/15 @ MIN; 5/20 vs MIA – 5-1 with a 2.47 ERA despite an unsightly 1.51 whip–sinker must be working

Bartolo Colon: 5/15 @ LAA; 5/20 @ SF – old man river just keeps on rolling

Jeanmar Gomez: 5/14 @ MIN; 5/19 vs MIA – only one bad start this year, unfortunately it was his last one

Jason Hammel:  5/14 vs NYY; 5/19 @ WAS – is this the year he finally puts it all together?

Drew Smyly: 5/14 @ CHW; 5/19 vs PIT – only 1 win despite a 1.59 ERA

Not too shabby results:

Week 5 – 15 GS, 6 QS, 7 W, 82.0 IP, 124 H+BB; 63 K’s, 47 ER, 5.16 ERA, 1.51 whip

YTD – 63 GS, 38 QS, 28 W, 391.0 IP, 497 H+BB, 282 K’s, 161 ER, 3.71 ERA, 1.27 whip

Risky at Best

Carl Pavano: 5/14 vs CLE; 5/19 @ MIL – they don’t call them the decline years for nothing

Bruce Chen: 5/15 @ TEX; 5/20 vs ARI – how many times are you allowed to intentionally walk Josh Hamilton?

Kevin Millwood: 5/14 @ BOS; 5/19 @ COL – 37 year pitcher in decline with two bad matchups, stay away

Jason Marquis: 5/15 vs CLE; 5/20 @ MIL – unless you want to obliterate your ERA and whip, stay away

Risky at best results

Week 5 – 14 GS, 5 QS, 4 W, 76.1 IP, 115 H+BB, 56 K’s, 53 ER, 6.25 ERA, 1.51 whip

YTD – 49 GS, 19 QS, 12 W, 266.1 IP, 403 H+BB, 184 K’s, 159 ER, 5.37 ERA, 1.51 whip

Other Favorable Matchups

Rick Porcello: 5/16 vs MIN

6-4 with a 2.86 ERA in his career against the Twins

Derek Holland: 5/16 vs OAK

3-1 with a 1.91 ERA against the A’s and they are even worse this year

C.J. Wilson: 5/17 vs CHW

3-0 with a 2.92 ERA against the White Sox

Joe Saunders: 5/18 @ KC

4-0 with a 2.57 ERA against the Royals

Cole Hamels: 5/18 vs BOS

3-0 with a 1.44 ERA against the Red Sox

Other favorable matchups results

Week 5 – 4 GS, 2 QS, 2 W, 27.2 IP, 33 H+BB, 20 K’s, 13 ER, 4.23 ERA, 1.19 whip

YTD – 13 GS, 8 QS, 5 W, 90.1 IP, 106 H+BB, 79 K’s, 33 ER, 3.29 ERA, 1.17 whip

That’s all for this week.  Until next week, let the pitching Gods be with you.

 

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AL Pitching Planner: May 7 – May 13

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AL Pitching Planner: May 7 – May 13

Posted on 06 May 2012 by Mark Sherrard

This week’s AL pitching lineup features two starts from the reigning CY Young/MVP, as well as a bunch of risky pitchers.

Here are the two-start pitchers and other favorable matchups for Week 6:

Two-Start Pitchers

No-Brainers

Justin Verlander: 5/7 @ SEA; 5/12 @ OAK – I told you these were no-brainers

Jered Weaver: 5/7 @ MIN; 5/13 @ TEX – how will he follow-up his no hitter?

James Shields: 5/8 @ NYY; 5/13 @ BAL – Shields is 5-0, but faces a couple tough matchups

Ricky Romero: 5/8 @ OAK; 5/13 @ MIN – Facing the AL’s two worst offenses, Romero could quickly be 6-0

No-brainers results

Week 4 – 6 GS, 3 QS, 3 W, 42.1 IP, 53 H+BB, 32 K’s, 19 ER, 4.04 ERA, 1.25 whip

YTD – 23 GS, 16 QS, 14 W, 160.0 IP, 184 H+BB, 122 K’s, 48 ER, 2.70 ERA, 1.15 whip

Not Too Shabby

John Danks: 5/7 @ CLE; 5/13 vs KC – Danks has struggled a little, but has a couple favorable matchups

Neftali Feliz: 5/7 @ BAL; 5/12 vs LAA – Feliz has transitioned well to the starting role

Ivan Nova: 5/8 vs TB; 5/13 vs SEA – despite high ERA (5.58), he is 3-1 and has a 28/9 K/BB ratio

Matt Harrison: 5/8 @ BAL; 5/13 vs LAA – has had a couple bad starts in a row, but stick with him

Daniel Bard: 5/8 @ KC; 5/13 vs CLE – has adapted well to starting, just needs to cut down on the walks some

Jake Arrieta: 5/8 vs TEX; 5/13 vs TB – these are the kind of matchups that separate the men from the boys

Philip Humber: 5/7 @ CLE; 5/12 vs KC – Humber perfect game shows his stuff is good, but he is still a bit inconsistent

Jarrod Parker: 5/8 vs TOR; 5/13 vs DET – rookie has pitched well in first two starts, can he keep it up?

Duane Below:  5/8 vs SEA; 5/13 vs OAK – has not given up a run this year and faces the two worst offenses

Justin Masterson: 5/8 vs CHW; 5/13 @ BOS – only one really bad outing so far, but beware of the Red Sox

Not to shabby results

Week 4 – 24 GS, 19 QS, 10 W, 156.1 IP, 183 H+BB, 103 K’s, 50 ER, 2.88 ERA, 1.17 whip

YTD – 48 GS, 32 QS, 21 W, 309.0 IP, 373 H+BB, 219 K’s, 114 ER, 3.32 ERA, 1.21 whip

Risky At Best

Francisco Liriano: 5/7 vs LAA; 5/12 vs TOR – former future ace has fallen flat and can no longer be recommended

Jonathan Sancez: 5/7 vs BOS; 5/13 @ CHW – 19 walks in 22.1 IP so far.  Avoid until he can find the plate.

Brian Matusz: 5/7 vs TEX; 5/12 vs TB – Rangers are 1st in runs scored and Rays 5th, not good for an average pitcher

Felix Doubront: 5/7 @ KC; 5/12 vs CLE – 5.19 ERA this year and 4.99 for his career

Josh Tomlin: 5/7 vs CHW; 5/12 @ BOS – 5.27 ERA so far this year and must face Red Sox

Blake Beavan: 5/7 vs DET; 5/13 @ NYY – poor minor league record and no offensive support from teammates

Liam Hendriks: 5/8 vs LAA; 5/13 vs TOR – still hasn’t figured out how to majors leaguers out

Risky at best results

Week 4 – 4 GS, 3 QS, 2 W, 25.3 IP, 31 H+BB, 9 K’s, 11 ER, 3.91 ERA, 1.22 whip

YTD – 35 GS, 14 QS, 8 W, 190 IP, 288 H+BB, 128 K’s, 106 ER, 5.02 ERA, 1.52 whip

Other Favorable Matchups

Jon Lester: 5/9 @ KC

Lest is 5-1 with a 1.30 ERA against the Royals in his career

Jeremy Hellickson: 5/11 @ BAL

Hellickson is 4-1 with a 2.23 ERA against the Orioles

Dream Matchup:  David Price vs C.C. Sabathia – 5/10 @ NYY

Price is 5-2 with a 3.96 ERA against the Yankees, including a win this year.  Sabathia is 9-7 with a 3.25 ERA against the Rays.

Other favorable matchups results

Week 4 – 2 GS, 2 QS, 1 W, 14 IP, 15 H+BB, 13 K’s, 3 ER, 1.93 ERA, 1.07 whip

YTD – 9 GS, 6 QS, 3 W, 62.2 IP, 73 H+BB, 59 K’s, 20 ER, 2.87 ERA, 1.16 whip

That’s all for now.  See ya next week.

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AL Pitching Planner: April 16 – April 22

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AL Pitching Planner: April 16 – April 22

Posted on 15 April 2012 by Mark Sherrard

Yesterday I took a look at the NL pitching matchups for Week 3.  Here are the AL matchups:

Two Start Pitchers

No-brainers

Justin Verlander: 4/16 @ KC; 4/21 vs Tex

Jered Weaver: 4/16 vs Oak; 4/21 vs Bal

C.C. Sabathia: 4/17 vs Min; 4/22 @ Bos

James Shields: 4/16 @ Bos; 4/21 vs Min

Dan Haren: 4/17 vs Oak; 4/22 vs Bal

When you have last year’s top 4 Cy Young finishers (Verlander, Weaver, Shields and Sabathia) all making two starts in one week, you know its a good week for pitching.  Haren benefits from facing two weak offenses

Not too shabby

Ricky Romero: 4/17 vs TB; 4/22 @ KC

Colby Lewis: 4/17 @ Bos; 4/22 @ Det

Brandon McCarthy: 4/16 @LAA; 4/21 vs Cle

Jeff Niemann: 4/17 @ Tor; 4/22 vs Min

John Danks: 4/17 vs Bal; 4/22 @ Sea

Justin Masterson: 4/17 @ Sea; 4/22 @ Oak

Jake Arrieta: 4/16 @ ChW; 4/21 @ LAA

Philip Humber: 4/16 vs Bal; 4/21 @ Sea

These pitchers have at least one favorable matchup or are talented enough that they should not hurt you.

Risky at best

Freddy Garcia: 4/16 vs Min; 4/21 @ Bos

Kevin Millwood: 4/17 vs Cle; 4/22 vs ChW

Carl Pavano: 4/16 @ NYY; 4/21 @ TB

Daniel Bard: 4/16 vs TB; 4/22 vs NYY

Francisco Liriano: 4/17 @ NYY; 4/22 @ TB

Drew Smyly: 4/17 @ KC; 4/22 vs Tex

Wei-Yin Chen: 4/17 @ ChW; 4/22 @ LAA

These guys just aren’t trust worthy.  Start them at your own risk.

Other Favorable Matchups

David Price: 4/18 @ Tor

Price is 9-2 with a career ERA of 2.06 against Toronto.

Felix Hernandez: 4/19 vs Cle

Hernandez is 5-3 with a 2.80 ERA against Cleveland.

Matt Moore: 4/20 vs Min

Moore has never faced Minnesota, but that may work in his favor.  Plus, the Twins just aren’t very good.

 

 

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DOs and DONTs: Chicago White Sox

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DOs and DONTs: Chicago White Sox

Posted on 05 March 2012 by Jared Thatcher

At first glance there weren’t really that many players I would draft from the White Sox this year. But upon further investigation, they may have some very valuable middle to late round picks that could add depth and production to your team.

DO find solace in the many young arms in the bullpen this year. Addison Reed, Matt Thornton, and Jesse Crain should all be lock down out of the bullpen no matter what order you put them in. They probably won’t have a ton of save opportunities, but should provide innings and strikeouts.

DONT even think about drafting most of their starting rotation this year. Gavin Floyd is injury prone and doesn’t put up great numbers. Jake Peavy is an absolute mystery, even to himself. He has lost velocity and doctors say his arm is as good as it’s going to get.

DO consider drafting John Danks as your number 3-5 starting pitcher. He has had a rough couple of years but I’m confident he can pitch 200 innings this year with an ERA under 4.00. The 150 strikeouts from him will be nice also toward the back of your rotation.

DO not overlook a couple of the other young arms on the team, Philip Humber and Nestor Molina. Molina came over in a trade from the Blue Jays and is a decent prospect. Humber provided over 200 innings of 4.00 ERA ball last year while striking out 150 batters. He should once again be a workhorse in 2012.

DONT take the chance on any of their outfielders unless you are absolutely desperate. Alex Rios had a terrible year in 2011 and there is no reason why he should be any better this year. Alejandro De Aza had a nice line over 54 games in 2011 but he is unproven. Dayan Viciedo was a good prospect in his day and still has some potential, but I would stay away until he proves himself.

DO DO DO pick up Paul Konerko as at least your DH this year. He is an RBI machine and has a great batting average to go along with it. He should be the same productive player he has always been, even considering his age.

DONT draft young infielders Brent Morel or Gordon Beckham. They were touted as future superstars and have shined at times, but the shine tarnished quickly and they were revealed to be below-average players. Don’t take the chance on these two guys until they can prove they can be productive week in and week out.

DO not expect Adam Dunn to hit under .200 again. Although the batting average is never very high for Dunn (he strikes out a ton), he should regain his swing and once again hit at least 30 home runs. Let Dunn slide as far as you can in the draft but don’t be afraid to take him as your DH in 2012.

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