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Triple Play: Chris Davis, Carl Crawford, Todd Frazier

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Triple Play: Chris Davis, Carl Crawford, Todd Frazier

Posted on 23 April 2013 by Chris Caylor

Welcome to this week’s Triple Play. Today, we’re covering a blossoming slugger, a resurgent outfielder, an inspiring home run, and more. Off we go:

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Who’s Hot?

Chris Davis, Baltimore Orioles

Davis is just continuing to build on his breakout year of 2012, when he finally emerged as the power threat he was expected to be with the Texas Rangers (33 HR, 85 RBI, 75 runs, 121 OPS+). He leads the American League with 7 homers, 21 RBI, 49 total bases and a whopping .845 slugging percentage. Obviously, Davis will not continue this 70 HR-210 RBI pace, but he has developed into the middle-of-the-order force people envisioned when he was with the Rangers. Incidentally, what is the Rangers’ biggest need at the moment? A slugger? Interesting. Perhaps trading a power hitter for a late-inning reliever is a bad idea, particularly when said reliever is no longer even on the team. Oh, and did I mention this is Davis’ Age 27 season? I think a 35 HR-100 RBI-85 run season is not out of the question.

Who’s Not?

American League shortstops

First, it was the Blue Jays’ Jose Reyes with a badly sprained ankle. Then it was the Angels’ Erick Aybar and a bruised heel. Then came word that New York’s Derek Jeter has a new crack in his left ankle and will not return until after the All-Star break. Last, but not least, Cleveland’s Asdrubal Cabrera has missed time with a bruised wrist . The shortstop position was thin the American League to begin with, and has only gotten worse over the past week. It’s not that Jeter, Aybar and Cabrera are dominating fantasy players; it’s the mind-bogglingly massive gap between those players and their replacements on the waiver wire. It’s times like this where guys like Ben Zobrist, Maicer Izturis, and Mike Aviles really start demonstrating their fantasy value. Being able to slide of them over to the shortstop position so you can find a replacement player at a deeper position is highly preferable to picking up someone like Brendan Ryan, Jayson Nix or (gulp!) Ronny Cedeno.

Playing the Name Game

Player A: 2-1, 2.82 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 23 K
Player B: 2-1, 2.82 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 17 K

Player A is the Phillies’ Cliff Lee. Player B is the Rockies’ lefty Jorge De La Rosa. Don’t worry, I’m not going to imply that De La Rosa is as good as Uncle Cliffy. However, I am using them for comparison to illustrate why Rockies fans and fantasy owners are so optimistic about De La Rosa’s start to the season. After losing nearly two seasons following Tommy John surgery, JDLR appears to be fully healthy. The result? How about 17 consecutive scoreless innings spread across his past three starts? That includes a stellar outing this past Saturday night at Coors Field, when he limited Arizona to two hits. His walks are still a concern (after all, not everyone can have Lee’s bullseye control), but De La Rosa has started throwing his nasty slider again. If he can continue to control it, he should continue to have success.

Player A: .274/.333/.500, 2 HR, 12 RBI, 6 SB, 14 runs
Player B: .349/.414/.507, 1 HR, 2 RBI, 3 SB, 14 runs

Player A is Andrew McCutchen of the Pirates, a current five-category fantasy stud. Player B is the Dodgers’ Carl Crawford. Remember Carl? Back in 2010, he notched this stat line: 19 HR, 90 RBI, 47 SB, 110 runs, .307 avg. A Top-5 player if ever there was one. Then he signed that megabucks deal with Boston and fell off the face of the earth. Last season, the Red Sox shipped him to Los Angeles, glad to be rid of the contract and the ghost of the player they thought they were getting. Part of the problem was injuries, which have now healed. As a result, Crawford is off to a blazing start with the Dodgers, showing flashes of his old five-category-stud self. At 31, he should still be in his prime. As Crawford gets further away from Tommy John surgery, he should get even better.

Random Thoughts

• Following up on the Who’s Not note above, who has been the most productive AL shortstop thus far in 2013? Elvis Andrus? No. J.J. Hardy? Sorry. Jhonny Peralta? Nope, but getting warmer. It is Oakland’s Jed Lowrie, with 3 HR, 14 RBI, 14 runs, and a gaudy early-season .393 average. If he can stay healthy, 15-20 HRs is within reason. That would be fantasy gold in AL-only leagues.

• Going into Sunday’s games, the major-league leader in RBI was Braves outfielder Justin UptonMets catcher John Buck. Yes, that same John Buck who hit 12 homers and drove in 41 in 106 games with the Marlins. He already has seven homers and 22 RBI in 2013.

• Was I right, or was I right? Jackie Bradley Jr. is already back in the minor leagues. Meanwhile, Daniel Nava is sprinting away with the left fielder job in Boston.

• If Angels slugger Albert Pujols is actually admitting that that his left foot is hurting, then I have to believe the pain must be excruciating. The man’s pain tolerance is phenomenal.

• I’m not a big fan of the designated hitter, but one bright side of it is that we get to watch Lance Berkman mashing the ball again. Where would the Rangers be without him?

• They would be in the same boat as the Tampa Bay Rays, who just can’t score.

• The Rockies might be 13-5 after Sunday’s loss to Arizona, but it’s a mirage. Yes, the starters are performing better than expected. Yes, the lineup is battering opposing pitchers into submission. Look out for the warning signs, though. The pitching staff is dead last in the NL in strikeouts. Bullpen newcomer Wilton Lopez has been a disaster (2.14 WHIP, allowing 19 hits per 9 IP). Closer Rafael Betancourt is sporting career-worst ratios in BB/9 and SO/BB. Jhoulys Chacin is already injured. Jeff Francis has been ghastly (8.25 ERA, 2.33 WHIP). The hot start won’t last, folks. Enjoy the Rockies’ stay in first place while it lasts.

• Johnny Gomes has ordered bats with the Boston Marathon victims’ names imprinted on them, along with the words “Boston Strong.” If it’s cheesy and cliché to hope that he hits a home run with the bat, so be it. I hope he does.

• It is impossible not to get a little lump in your throat watching Todd Frazier’s home run against the Marlins last week. Actually, the best part the reaction of Reds bat boy Teddy Kremer. Kremer, you see, is 29 and has Down syndrome. Watching Kremer jubilantly hug Frazier after the home run is one of the most joyous things I’ve seen in quite some time. If you haven’t seen it, you need to look it up and watch it – now. It will brighten your day.

Follow me on Twitter: @ccaylor10

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Triple Play: Who’s Hot/Not, Playing the Name Game, Random Thoughts

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Triple Play: Who’s Hot/Not, Playing the Name Game, Random Thoughts

Posted on 09 April 2013 by Chris Caylor

Welcome to the first edition of Triple Play, a new weekly column in 2013 that combines three features from last season (Who’s Hot/Who’s Not, Playing the Name Game and Random Thoughts). Look for this column on Mondays or Tuesdays throughout the season. Off we go:

Colorado Rockies' Dexter Fowler, right, smiles as he is congratulated by teammates in the dugout after scoring on an RBI-single by Omar Quintanilla in the seventh inning against the Arizona Diamondbacks during a spring training baseball game in Tucson, Ariz., Thursday,  April 2, 2009. (AP Photo/Ed Andrieski)

Who’s Hot: Dexter Fowler, Colorado Rockies

While Chris Davis and Justin Upton have gotten tons of headlines – deservedly so – for their scorching first weeks of 2013, let’s not forget about Fowler, who put together a .370/.413/.852 batting line in the season’s opening week. The Rockies’ center fielder is at that magic age of 27, when so many pro athletes hit their peak, and he is tantalizing fantasy owners with the promise of a breakout season after just one week.

Who’s Not: R.A. Dickey, Toronto Blue Jays

On the flip side is R.A. Dickey, who has not been the ace the Blue Jays expected when they acquired him from the Mets over the winter. The knuckleballer has been battered to the tune of an 8.43 ERA and 1.97 WHIP in his two starts. During his time in New York, Dickey’s ability to avoid walks was perhaps the most impressive aspect of his pitching – especially considering the knuckleball’s unpredictability. So far in 2013, he has walked six hitters in 10 2/3 innings. That has to change, or the boo-birds Dickey heard Sunday will only get louder.

Playing the Name Game

Player A: .391/.423/.696, 1 HR, 7 RBI, 1 SB, 5 runs

Here’s a 2nd baseman who is off to a good start this season, particularly when you consider that he is 34 and had multiple injury issues the past two seasons. In fact, people were wondering if his career was rapidly meeting its end. Perhaps the most encouraging sign of his improved health is the stolen base and the triple he legged out on Opening Day? Got his name yet? Sure you do: it’s Chase Utley of the Phillies.

Player B: .500/.567/1.000, 3 HR, 6 RBI, 7 runs

These stats belong to a shortstop who has always been a good hitter, but has had trouble staying healthy. Troy Tulowitzki? Good guess, but no. This player is on his third team in as many seasons, and all of them now play in the American League. It’s the Athletics’ Jed Lowrie (who started last year for the Astros).

Random Thoughts

 If it weren’t for bad luck, Brian Roberts (and his fantasy owners) would have no luck at all. At age 35, after missing nearly three seasons with his horrible concussion issues and other injuries, Roberts was looking like an above-average option at a tissue paper-thin position in fantasy. So what happens? He strains his right hamstring in the third game of the season and is slated to miss about a month. The Orioles are a fun team to watch. They would be even more fun to watch if Roberts could stay healthy.

 From two grizzled veterans to an overhyped youngster: Jackie Bradley Jr. will be back in the minors by the end of April. He might be a major league talent, but Daniel Nava is the player to own.

 A’s pitcher Dan Straily pitched a beauty Friday night against the Astros, striking out 11 and permitting just three baserunners in 6 2/3 innings. His reward? A ticket back to Triple-A Sacramento so Bartolo Colon can take his place in Oakland’s rotation.

Jeff Samardzija leads the majors with 22 strikeouts after two starts, but the guy is 2nd place is surprising: the Pirates’ A.J. Burnett. Unfortunately for him, the Pirates haven’t scored a run in either of his starts. Yikes (for the Pirates’ offense, not Burnett).

 The Mets took a lot of heat for not making any big-name additions to the team, particularly after trading Dickey to Toronto, but the cupboard is not bare. Matt Harvey, 24, flashed ace-like potential in his debut (10 Ks, three baserunners in seven innings). Outfielder Collin Cowgill can flat-out hit. He will turn 27 this season and won’t even have a better opportunity to seize an everyday job than right now.

 Re: “42” – I haven’t been this pumped to see a sports movie since “Miracle.” After reading how pleased Rachel Robinson is with it, I am more excited than ever to see it. If she thinks the filmmakers did well, then I don’t much care what the critics have to say.

Follow me on Twitter @ccaylor10

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Tis The Time For Bold Predictions

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Tis The Time For Bold Predictions

Posted on 25 March 2013 by Nick Schaeflein

In the last week, the sports world has seen its fair share of bracket fever and the only cure is more predictions! The World Baseball Classic bracket tournament concluded with the Dominican Republic being crowned champions after going undefeated throughout the tournament. Congratulations to them. Also this week, the office pool of all office pools, the NCAA basketball tournament has tipped off with everyone and their mother filling out a bracket. Some brackets are filled out with knowledge and expertise; others are filled out with hopes and sheer guesses. But no matter what, the spectacle is a fun and exciting time.

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Being in the prognosticating zone and Opening Day just over a week a way, it is a good transition to some Major League Baseball season predictions. This week will be the American League 2013 preview.

Starting in the American League East, I am anticipating this division being the best division in baseball this season. All five teams will be ultra strong and all have visions of the post season. Sadly, one team will finish in last and it may be the New York Yankees turn. Injuries and an older roster may finally catch up to the Bombers and bring up the rear in the East. The Baltimore Orioles may also have a set back year compared to last year, finishing fourth and the Tampa Bay Rays, while pesky, in third. The Boston Red Sox will have a bounce back year (hard to have a worse year), and finish in second. Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz are pitching great thus far this spring. The new Toronto Blue Jays will be division champs this season. The roster is fully balanced after off season moves and will narrowly come out on top.

In the Central, the Detroit Tigers will repeat as division champions. In the division they have the best pitcher and best position player that should keep them on the top line of the standings. The Chicago White Sox will be runners up again but compete for a wild card spot. Both the Cleveland Indians and Kansas City Royals are improved and could be major thorns in the sides of other clubs. The Indians were well represented in the WBC that could lead to an improving campaign and the Royals made one of the boldest off season trades this past December trying to spark the franchise. The rebuilding Minnesota Twins will finish in fifth.

Out west, the Los Angeles Angels are heavy favorites and will win the division by the widest margin of any of the six division winners. That will be aided by playing the Seattle Mariners and Houston Astros several times during divisional play. Houston is making their inaugural season in the American League and on paper appears to be heading toward a difficult season in the wins category. The Texas Rangers lost a lot of fire power this off season and are not quite the same team that has had recent playoff success. They will finish in second while the Oakland A’s will finish in third. Oakland, like Baltimore will fall back a bit after a surprise 2012 season. In fourth, will be the Seattle Mariners, who while trying to make some improvements still cannot quite compete for a full season compared to the other ball clubs and the Astros will be a distant fifth place.

Come October, the Wild Card match up will feature the two Sox teams – Red versus White. Winning the one game playoff will be Boston and advancing to the Divisional Round.

In the Divisional Round, the Red Sox will show some fight but in the end be defeated by the Angels while the Blue Jays will take down the Tigers. The American League Championship will showcase the high power offenses of the Angels and Blue Jays. In five games, Mike Trout, Albert Pujols and company will put the Jays into a halo effect and advance to their first World Series since winning it back in 2002.

Come awards season, the American League Most Valuable Player will be the man who was runner up a season ago. Mike Trout has all of the talent and the ultimate protection to post video game like numbers for the second straight season. The CY Young, boldly will be handed to Jon Lester. Lester has CY Young talent and perhaps with a new coaching staff in place, this will finally be the year he puts it all together. The Manager of the Year will be awarded to Robin Ventura of Chicago. I believe he should have won the award last season, but with a possible second solid year in a row, this could be his. With the line up and high expectations, Mike Scioscia of Los Angeles may cancel himself out. Finally the Rookie of the American League will be Dylan Bundy of Baltimore (not Polk High). A young talent on the mound, Bundy will see a lot of innings and post good first year numbers.

Next week, predictions on the National League. May your brackets be good to you!

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Jair Jurrjens And The 2013 Orioles

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Jair Jurrjens And The 2013 Orioles

Posted on 20 February 2013 by Will Emerson

Against all, or at least most,odds the Baltimore Orioles flew on into the playoffs  in 2012. It defied logic really. I mean on paper they had no business being there. They were not picked by, I would go ahead and say anyone, to even finish higher than fifth in the A.L. East, let alone make the playoffs. They even managed to take the New York Yankees to five games in the League Division Series before their season ended.  It was unexplainable to say the least, but it has to now have hopes a bit higher in Baltimore for 2013. Or does it? If anything the 2012 Orioles showed the world , or at the least the part of it that pays attention to baseball, that in baseball just about anything can happen over a 162 game season. As much I may still wonder how exactly the Orioles really got it done in 2012, I am scratching my head at how they are going to get it done in 2013.

JairJurgens

The Orioles have had a very subdued offseason which, to me at least, says that the front office does not see the 2012 season as a fluke. Be that as it may, it can’t hurt to try and improve, especially whilst playing in arguably the toughest overall division in baseball. The other surprise American League playoff team from 2012, the Oakland Athletics, has not made too many eye-popping moves, but they have filled some major holes and look to build on last season. Let’s face it if you were compare the Oriole and Athletic organizations I think you would say Oakland was already in better shape. Now, I am not saying there is anything wrong with not making a big splash in the offseason. It seems, like I said, that the Os front office is thinking they have the pieces pretty much in place to make another playoff run. While it is good to show confidence in your team and all, being realistic can be useful as well. The possible addition of Jair Jurrjens in your rotation is hardly causing league opponents to shake in their cleats

Jurrjens could, if he stays healthy be the newest piece in the Orioles rotation. Wow. Is that supposed to excite Orioles fans? Are they already printing Jurrjens tees, jersey and other knickknacks and tchotchkes? Is a Jurrjens bobblehead already in the works? Okay, okay, I know, I know, there’s no reason to bad mouth Jurrjens. In fact, I do like Jair, but in the same inexplicable way I like Chris Volstad. I don’t necessarily think he is underrated or necessarily good, I just like him. Unfortunately my like does not a good pitcher make. It could be considered low risk high reward, or could it? In the last two seasons he had a K/9 below six and his career high in the majors is 6.65. While his career ERA is a respectable 3.62, his FIP is 3.99 and his xFIP is 4.31. His best xFIP season, which is what I am guessing the Os are hoping for, came in 2008 when he posted a 3.92. Oh, that is also the only season in which he posted a sub four xFIP. Now of course all xFIP does is give us an idea of around where a picther’s true ERA should be not where it will be, so really Baltimore is looking for that incredibly lucky 2.96 ERA Jair posted in 2011. Jurrjens posted that ERA with a 3.99 FIP, but was helped by a .269 BABIP and an 81% LOB, by far his career high. Hey, if he is able to reproduce that kind of luck he will be a great deal. But I am guessing in the A.L. East he will be like me in high school and rarely, if ever, be getting lucky. We may be getting off track a bit here, I mean Jair just needs to be mediocre to be a worthwhile pickup for Baltimore. Jurrjens does not need to be an ace of the staff that’s why they have ummm, uhhh, errr…well, I have no dang idea? Who will anchor the 2013 Orioles rotation, exactly, Wei-Yin Chen?

While he is no Bruce Chen, Wei-Yin did prove serviceable in 2012, but what we can expect from Chen and the rest of the Baltimore rotation in 2013? First off they have eight pitchers, aside from Jurrjens who could start in ’13. Let us take a quick look at those potential SPs and some 2012 numbers.

Brian Matusz – 6-10, 4.87 ERA, 1.56 WHIP, 4.38 SIERA, 4.95 xFIP, 7.44 K/9
Tommy Hunter- 7-8, 5.45 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 4.34 SIERA, 4.37 xFIP, 5.18 K/9
Jason Hammel- 8-6, 3.43 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 3.53 SIERA, 3.46 FIP, 8.62 K/9
Wei-Yin Chen- 12-11, 4.02 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 4.14 SIERA, 4.34 xFIP, 7.19 K/9
Zach Britton- 5-3, 5.07 ERA, 1.54 WHIP, 4.11 SIERA, 4.05 xFIP, 7.91 K/9
Jake Arrieta- 3-9, 6.20 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 3.59 SIERA, 3.65 xFIP, 8.56 K/9
Chris Tillman- 9-3, 2.93 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 4.17 SIERA, 4.34 xFIP, 6.91 K/9
Miguel Gonzalez- 9-4, 3.25 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 4.40 SIERA, 4.63 xFIP, 6.58 K/9

Wow, take your pick, anyone of them could be your ace, right? Sheesh, only two starters with sub-four xFIPs? On the bright side, other than Tillman and Hammel, everyone else should have better numbers in the future. I mean not much better, but better. Now, you could argue that there was no pitcher really out there that they could go after, although Kyle Lohse is still hanging around. I think Lohse is overrated and not worth whatever he is asking, but he could easily step in and be the ace of this staff. Heck, Ryan Dempster could be the ace of this staff!  Well, clearly it was not really the starting pitchers that got the Orioles to the playoffs in 2012 and why should it be what gets them there in 2013? Their bullpen was what worked for them, right?

Their pen was anchored by Jim Johnson who is a bit overrated because of the 50 plus saves, but rather than get into that now, you can read this. The Os basically used four other relievers in front of JJ and used them a lot! Five relievers threw over 55 innings and four of them threw over 66 innings. Not one of those pitchers had an xFIP under 3.38 and only one of them had a K/9 over eight. Which is fine for starters, but as a high to highish leverage reliever, you should be striking guys out. Wait a minute! Time out! Why am I even harping on their pitching? This a slugging team that will outscore other teams, so the pitching does not have to do much to keep them in games.

The Orioles were sixth in the American League in runs scored in 2012, so they had no trouble getting people across the plate. This was in large part due to the long ball, as they were number two in the league in that category. But is this run scoring sustainable? They do have some promise in their lineup, but can you expect them to duplicate 2012? Take Chris Davis for example. Davis crushed the ball in 2012, socking 33 home runs. This was a career high sure, but totally unforeseen? Well, not entirely, since many people have been waiting awhile for this Chris Davis to make an appearance.  So maybe Davis can do this again. I mean he is only there to slug after all. The amazing thing is Davis did not drive in 100 runs. Not one Oriole did in 2012. It was a balanced attack. Plus they will hopefully get a full season of Manny Machado who is still developing, so they appear to be in good shape with the bats. Their offense should be as good, if not very close to as good as it was in 2012, but is it enough to get back to the playoffs? I would lean towards no. No, it is not enough.

At the very least the Orioles will have to beat out two teams in their own division to dip their toes in the 2013 playoff waters and that in itself is a tall order. Looking at the A.L. East going into 2013, every team in the division should be able to put up runs. Well maybe not the Rays, but they pretty much have the best pitching in the division, maybe the American League, and that will compensate plenty. The Blue Jays, Red Sox, and even the “in-danger” aging Yankees should be able to hit with the Orioles and I would argue that they all have better pitching than Baltimore. At least two teams in the A.L. East are not making the playoffs and I have a feeling the Orioles will be one of those teams. Sorry Baltimore fans, but enjoy Jair Jurrjens bobblehead day!

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Rest In Peace Earl Weaver

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Rest In Peace Earl Weaver

Posted on 21 January 2013 by Trish Vignola

Earl Weaver was among the most winning managers in Major League Baseball. Fans loved him. His players…didn’t. He was Lou Piniella before Lou Piniella.

APphoto_Obit Earl  Weaver Baseball

In 17 years at the helm of the Baltimore Orioles, something unheard of for a manager these days, his teams won 1,480 games. They won four American League championships and the 1970 World Series. Sadly, Mr. Weaver died Jan. 18 while on a cruise. If you are going to go, go big, right? He was of 82. The cause of death seems to be an apparent heart attack, but details of his death are not immediately known.

As the Orioles’ manager, Weaver’s winning percentage was .583. That’s the ninth best of all time. He was named Manager of the Year three times. His teams had 100-win seasons five times. He was thrown out of 98 games for arguing with umpires, his calling card. The Orioles retired his No. 4 uniform and he was inducted into the National Baseball Hall of Fame in 1996.

Weaver managed the Orioles from 1968 through 1982. However, by 1985, Baltimore’s beloved O’s had fallen upon hard times. The “Earl of Baltimore” returned in what proved to be a futile effort to right the ship. At the end of the 1986 season, Mr. Weaver retired for good. After a sixth-place in the American League in 1967, the Orioles came storming back behind Mr. Weaver’s leadership in 1968, finishing second.

The next year, they won the American League East division championship with a record of 109-53. That was the best in team history. The Orioles swept the Minnesota Twins 3-0 in the AL championship series, but lost the World Series to the “Miracle” Mets. In 1970, Mr. Weaver led the Orioles to 108 victories, paced by the slugging of first baseman Boog Powell, who had 35 home runs and 114 runs batted in and was named the American League’s most valuable player. After again defeating the Twins in three straight games for the AL pennant, the Orioles advanced to the World Series and beat the Cincinnati Reds, four games to one. Twice more, in 1971 and in 1979, Mr. Weaver took the Orioles to the World Series, only to lose both times to the Pittsburgh Pirates.

As an on-the-field manager, Mr. Weaver was primarily a motivator who seldom dwelled on the techniques of hitting, fielding or pitching. The Washington Post reported, “The only thing Weaver knows about a curve ball,” Oriole Hall-of-Fame pitcher Jim Palmer once said, “is that he couldn’t hit one.”

Off the field, Mr. Weaver kept his distance from his players, sitting alone on airplanes when the team traveled. He could be harsh and sarcastic, and his verbal clashes with Palmer were well publicized. “Any difference we ever had was overshadowed by the fact that his teams always won,” Palmer said in 1996, after Mr. Weaver’s election to the Hall of Fame. “I enjoyed our relationship even though there was some tension.”

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