Archive | Draft Strategy

Fantasy Forecast

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Fantasy Forecast

Posted on 22 February 2013 by Nick Schaeflein

In Florida and Arizona all spring training camps are now kicked into gear. Along with that, Fantasy Baseball leagues are forming and drafts are being prepped for.

fantasybaseballdraft2009

This year, my fantasy career becomes a teenager. I have been competing in various fantasy leagues since the year 2000, and with that I have managed several championship teams, have also had a few down teams, and a whole bunch in the middle with heartbreak and triumph.

For me, fantasy football and baseball leagues have always been about fun. The chance to have bragging rights over friends, maybe win a few bucks, and watching the games from a different perspective is a great learning tool. I can still remember having those drafts in friend’s basements and jokingly hearing from the peanut gallery that every player would be a bust. Or, making a draft day trade that was crazy ridiculous, yet still managing to win a championship that same year. Gathering around big boards with magazines fanned out and a dozen pizzas ordered, hoping that you will create that winning club for the upcoming season are like mini Christmas’ for some.

With that in mind, here is a little forecasting to hopefully set the 2013 season off on the right track. For me, the top pick overall this season has to be a guy that has yet to play on an Opening Day. The Angel’s Mike Trout is the guy this season. His rookie season was one of the best seasons in history and not just by a rookie. He is a five tool player. Trout edges out the Detroit Tigers’ Triple Crown man, Miguel Cabrera. Rounding out my overall top 5 would be Robinson Cano, Albert Pujols, and Andrew McCutchen.

Next on the clock, the top pitcher would be Justin Verlander of the Tigers as well. He just turned 30 but he is a true ace. He wins games, eats up innings, and dominates the strike outs. Two other aces to headline a staff would be the Dodgers’ Clayton Kershaw or the Rays’ David Price. Stephen Strasburg, while he is a star attraction, is not quite a top three pitcher just yet. Personally, I still have questions about his arm. Coming out of college I suspected that he may be prone to a major surgery and that is what happened a few seasons ago. After last year’s well publicized inning limit he should have a solid season and hopefully will pitch a full year. The top catcher would definitely be the Giants’ Buster Posey and top closer to rack up saves would be the Braves’ Craig Kimbrel.

Many times, seasons are won and lost on those draft day risks and reaches. The sleepers or rookies you hope will pan out because you want to jump at them first before the guy on his ninth slice of pizza does. These picks may have you booed into the next beverage run, but they could also lead to a victory dance at the end of the season too.

ChrisSale

On the mound, sleepers may include the White Sox Chris Sale who last year was a starter, then closer, then starter again and turned in a heck of a season. This year he will likely be the ace and have another good season while many still may have doubts. Also, Madison Bumgarner continues to develop and improve out by the bay. He is overshadowed by others out there but his talents and skills are right up there. Mike Minor in Atlanta could also put together a nice season as well.

Offensive sleepers include the Houston Astros Jose Altuve. When it comes to the Astros, there are not very many good things but Altuve is one. From another club that could struggle all year is the Colorado Rockies catcher Wilin Rosario. Finally, it may be my turn for the drink run, but Anthony Rizzo of the Cubs will be a guy to get dibs on. I am confident in that. Let the big names go early, sit back, wait, and grab Rizzo mid draft.

The top rookie on draft day will likely be the closer of the Tigers, Bruce Rondon. He is a young flame thrower and will surely get plenty of chances with that offense in support. Also, likely making a debut this year will be the New York Mets top prospect pitcher Zack Wheeler.

As draft days near, may the force and luck be with you. Best of luck constructing that winning club, but most importantly have fun! The best thing about baseball is that it is everyday for 162 games and the weather is mostly sunny.

Feel free to comment with your thoughts for draft strategies and Play Ball!

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Requiem For A One-Eyed Batter

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Requiem For A One-Eyed Batter

Posted on 12 September 2012 by Gary Perilloux

A day like any other? Hardly. Soon, Larry Mize would plunk a 140-foot chip into the final playoff hole cup at Augusta, giving Greg Norman the most bitter defeat of his career at The Masters.

But the day belonged to baseball, really. Here we were, a dozen general managers, an auctioneer, several wives, girlfriends and hangers-on in a downtown watering hole about four Mickey Mantle home run blasts from the Mississippi River.

Doug’s, a Beaux-Arts establishment, sported 20-foot ceilings, massive maroon drapes, heavy tables with captain’s chairs, a dartboard and jukebox at the back and a curved-screen, cathode-ray tube piping The Masters in over the bar, helmed by a discreet bookie who’d triple as our barkeep and auctioneer.

Draft Day – all’s right with the world, and just as we pored over our cheat sheets, penciling in last-minute strategies in our Rotisserie reveries, the scene-stealer burst through the door with a stack of research in one arm and a stack of neon yellow caps on the other.

Lyman Gore, a wiry, 40-ish attorney with curly, dishwater blond hair, strode in from a nearby print shop with a gleam in his one good eye and a gift for every Fantasy Baseball owner at the table: A purple logo printed on the yellow caps, LSU-like, but this was no Eye of the Tiger. No, Lyman – confident of claiming his first championship – lavished upon us custom caps with a purple bat striking a purple baseball festooned with his trademark glass eye and a caption below his team name: “Cyclops – In the Bat of an Eye.”

CYCLOPS CAP

Laughs cascaded to the ceiling, and the loudest was Lyman’s, a hoarse cackle that crinkled the corners of his eyes and that echoed through every River City League draft until, finally, two decades later he would claim his first title.

‘I Hate Pitchers’

Pitchers were the bane of Lyman’s existence. It was as if his mind’s eye suffered from a loss of perspective the way his physical eye suffered from a lack of peripheral vision.

Seated with his roster sheet and inside baseball publications – typically at a separate table – he’d grab his thermos and swill some coffee of the Irish kind. When it came his turn to nominate a player in the draft auction, he’d slap his thermos on the table and mutter an oath, “I hate pitchers,” usually followed by the corollary phrase, “with a passion.”

Year-in, year-out, the Cyclops couldn’t seem to break that cycle. The pitchers seemed to hate Lyman as much as he hated them. He’d spend big on sluggers and base-stealers until someone would say, “Lyman, when you gonna draft a pitcher?” His rejoinder: “I hope never.”

Some years he’d sit out the bidding altogether until, at the first break, one of us would say, “Lyman, when you gonna draft somebody?” His rejoinder, “I’m saving my money,” reflected his upbringing as a banker’s son, and then the corollary “I don’t want to blow it all on pitchers” would precede another cackle and a round of good-natured ribbing.

But clearly a pattern was setting in. Lyman, who scouted spring training and pored over player rankings with the best of us, usually exceeding the preparation any of the rest of us could muster, slowly but surely sank into a bidding paralysis. He seemed not to want to pull the trigger and, eventually, seemed incapable of doing so in the crucial moments of the draft.

Fantasy baseball purists know the pitfalls. Never spend too much, too early. Never bring up a player you don’t want to own. And never get so excited about a player that your bid is out of proportion with the player’s Fantasy, not real, value. Sometimes the most modest of bids is excessive. One year, my brother Glen, playing with a Canadian oil man named Lloyd Thomas as his partner, listened while someone opened one of the first bids with “Kevin Ritz, starting pitcher, Colorado.” Now these were the 1990s, and Coors Field was the ultimate hitter’s crib: One simply didn’t draft Rockies pitchers if they could be avoided – and never early in the draft. To his horror, Glen heard the oil man bellow a second bid for Ritz from behind his bushy mustache. A split second of silence ensued, then came the thundering sound of my brother’s foot stomping and the exclamation: “Lloyd!” Wounded, the oil man defended himself: “Well, he won 17 games last year. He’s worth at least one more bid.” Ritz also had surrendered 105 walks and 125 earned runs the prior year to go with a WHIP of 1.601 and a 5.28 ERA.

By then, the jig was up, laughter knifed through the auction tension, and I don’t have to tell you who laughed loudest.

The Comeback Kid

Still, Lyman couldn’t break his lovable loser mold. He’d overcompensate in ways that led to more mirth. When time came for our Minor League picks, Lyman amped up the levity by selecting farm hands for the peculiarity of their names: Razor Shines, Motorboat Jones and Boof Bonser all spent time riding the Cyclops bench.

And yet Lyman flourished in his role as our league’s commissioner. Our River City League began nearly 30 years ago when Rotisserie founders Glenn Waggoner and Daniel Okrent penned the first edition of the classic, Rotisserie League Baseball, and we original owners read it. In those days, we crunched our own stats by hand – ugh! – and delighted in the delayed discovery of who was winning. Lyman joined a couple of years later, when we’d begun receiving weekly faxed stats from a service in Maryland.

When, a decade later, Web leagues burst onto the scene, Lyman stepped up to the plate as our online commissioner. On any given summer night, you could go to our site, glance through the standings and there in the chat room Lyman would be lurking, as sure and certain a presence as the moon outside.

We exchanged hundreds of emails about transactions and trades over the years, often never seeing each other between drafts because we lived in different cities. And then a funny thing happened.

Lyman embraced the baseball strategies of John Benson with a passion and began moving up the standings from his perennial also-ran status. Most miraculous of all, he embraced pitchers. With Benson behind him, Lyman learned that pitchers could be his friends, especially the innings-eaters with low ERAs, stingy WHIPs and frequent W’s in a holy pitching trinity. He learned to eschew saves – you can’t win every category, the reasoning went, so don’t overpay for a bunch of unpredictable relievers.

Gradually, he applied the same systematic approach to hitters. He climbed from 4 pitching points, 21 total points and 10th place (last) in 2001 to ninth a year later, with 14 pitching points and 37 total points. In 2003, he scaled to third place with a balanced line of 24 points in batting and 23 in pitching. The next year, he claimed second place (44 points) in the most competitive year in our league’s history.

And then it happened. In 2005, the Cyclops claimed the no-longer mythical championship, beating my Peripatetics team by 4.5 points and recording the league’s best balance: 26 batting points, 23 pitching points. I couldn’t have been happier if I’d won myself, and I almost felt the same way in 2006 when Lyman edged me by 2 points to take his second consecutive crown.

If anyone deserved to gloat, it was Lyman, but he remained uncannily gracious as a champion and continually competitive in the succeeding years. Shortly after the All-Star Game this year, I pulled into our office parking lot after lunch, heard my phone buzz with what I expected to be a work email and read the impossible: Lyman had died after surgery and a brief illness.

Eternal Summer

I’ll never know what going to war is like, fighting with brothers in arms on foreign soil. But this felt like someone blasted my bunkmate out of our foxhole. I lost it. When I posted a brief email to my fellow owners a few moments later, it stated the unfiltered truth about Lyman: “Devastating: It will never be the same without him.”

Fantasy commissioners aren’t supposed to die, they’re supposed to go on forever – longer than Bud Selig, God love him. Several other league owners had died over the years, but none in mid-season and none more dedicated to this silly, romantic, guts-and-glory game we pursue.

The best I can do is step off the pitching mound and hand the ball over to the late great Mike Royko, whose posthumous collection of columns in 1999 began with this requiem on the final day when his beloved Chicago Daily News ceased publication in 1978:

When I was a kid, the worst of all days
Was the last day of summer vacation,
and we were in the schoolyard playing softball,
and the sun was going down, and it was getting dark.
But I didn’t want it to get dark.
I didn’t want the game to end.
It was too good, too much fun.
I wanted it to stay light forever,
so we could go on playing forever,
so the game would go on and on.

That’s how I feel now: C’mon, C’mon!
Let’s play one more inning.
One more time at bat.
One more pitch. Just one?
Stick around, guys.
We can’t break up this team.
It’s too much fun.

But the sun always went down.
And now it’s almost dark again.

Elsewhere, the sun is rising, and I see Ray Kinsella tossing a baseball to his dad, the catcher. Ty Cobb is filing his spikes, and Shoeless Joe Jackson is lacing up his cleats, staring down Cobb. Satchel Paige is on the pitching mound, staring over his shoulder to see how far Jackie Robinson is cheating toward second base.

Perched on the front row of the bleachers, Judge Kennesaw Mountain Landis casts a quizzical eye at Shoeless Joe and glares at the first baseman, Chick Gandil. Beside Landis, Bowie Kuhn engages A. Bartlett Giamatti in a scholarly debate on free agency, and next to them, wearing the golden cap with the purple eye, sits Lyman Gore – thermos in one hand, stat sheet on his knee.

He winks.

Today, Gary Perilloux’s RCL team stands in sixth place, a point behind the late Lyman Gore’s Cyclops, who are tied for fourth and leading the league with a .282 team batting average. 

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Ozzie Guillen and I Have Way More in Common Than I Thought

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Ozzie Guillen and I Have Way More in Common Than I Thought

Posted on 27 June 2012 by Trish Vignola

Nothing has changed in the timeline for his return, the multifaceted Emilio Bonifacio is still due at some point back after the All-Star Break. Still, Tuesday was a crucial day for Emilio Bonifacio. That’s nice. I speculated pre-Full Spectrum Baseball Fantasy Baseball draft that Bonifacio was going to have a significant impact on the Marlins.

Heck. I even drafted him.

However, the only impact Bonifacio has made on my team is the space he takes up on my Disabled List.

The Marlins center fielder was examined and cleared by a team physician to increase his baseball activities. Bonifacio got the green light to start hitting and play catch. He is still recovering from surgery to repair a torn ligament in his left thumb.

The injury occurred in Cleveland on May 18, and he’s been on my disabled list since May 20. Sigh.

On Tuesday, Bonifacio began hitting off a tee. He also put a glove on and played catch. The injury is to his glove hand.

Before this, Bonifacio had taken practice swings in recent days. As previously mentioned, the team’s hope is to have him back after the All-Star break.

The Marlins come out of the break on July 13 at home against the Nationals.

“I don’t want to be rushed back,” Bonifacio said. Why should he? He has spent a whole season making me rethink my entire fantasy Baseball strategy. To be fair, I’ve also had David Robinson and any assortment of New York Mets bullpen at some point. Enough already. I’m glade Bonifacio is “feeling great,” but I really need him to get off his butt and start taking swings before I have to drop another person.

Who knew though that there was one person out there who understood what I was going through?

All the losing is trying Marlins manager Ozzie Guillen’s patience. Who can blame him?

Because Miami has a number of young players, the fiery Guillen has been careful not to lash out at his team. Instead, he’s been uplifting and encouraging. I just keep yelling at my Mac Book screen.

“I have to be careful how I treat these kids here,” the manager said. “I don’t have a veteran team. I don’t know how they’re going to handle it. I’m not going to put more pressure on them. I don’t need to say something they know. How you’re going to say it, how they’re going to digest it, how they’re going to take it.”

Veterans don’t take it well either. Ask Bobby Valentine or any of my players…who apparently can’t hear me yelling through my computer screen.

While he’s bitten his tongue, the manager cautioned he could be close to once again making headlines because of his emotions.

“I will, pretty soon,” Guillen said. “I want to be on ESPN. I want to be all over the news. I haven’t been there for a long time.”

Thank you. I’m always looking for writing topics.

Guillen continues, “I should. I make a lot of money when I’m doing that. Pretty soon I’m ready to erupt. But right now … I’m just trying to be positive the most that I can, because we need that.”

Bottom line for both Ozzie and myself is production. The Marlins have been an enigma, because they won 21 games in May, but have just five wins in June entering Tuesday. I dropped two spots in the rankings since Monday.

“I believe we have a good ballclub,” Guillen said. I’m not so sure I do.

Guillen continues, “I believe we do. Why? Because we’ve played good before. I know we’re going to play good again. The only thing I want is more consistency. I want the players to feel that way, how good they are.
“We went from the best team in baseball to the worst team in baseball. You can’t be that drastic. That’s why I’m confused. I think we have the talent.”

I have Jose Reyes AND Joey Votto. How could I have gone so wrong?

Guillen on Tuesday sported a cleaner look, shaving off his goatee. I don’t have one.

“I shaved it because I had more white hair than when I got here,” he joked. “Thank you to the Marlins. I look older.” Me too, Ozzie. Me too.

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Finding Keepers: Cleveland Indians

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Finding Keepers: Cleveland Indians

Posted on 30 March 2012 by Jeff Coleman

The Cleveland Indians are as much of an enigma in the fantasy baseball world as they are on the real baseball diamond. There are players that show enough flashes of talent to give fantasy GMs hope, but wind up either bowing out with injuries (Grady Sizemore), pure lack of overall production (Matt LaPorta), or some other off-the-field ‘excitement’ (Fausto Carmona / Roberto Hernandez).

This is enough to make any fantasy GM wonder: Are there any keeper-worthy prospects on the Tribe roster? The reality of the Indians’ piecemeal situation, especially in the outfield, would make the answer seem like a ‘no’. However, there are a few players that I would recommend for extended looks in a Keeper League.

  • RP Vinnie Pestano – It is difficult to judge a player off of only one year of Major League numbers, but Pestano was honestly dominant for a majority of the 2011 season. Sporting a sub-3.00 ERA, sub-1.20 WHIP, and around a 3.0 K/BB ratio throughout his career, both Majors and Minors, Pestano has shown a consistency that is very promising. He is also the best candidate on the Indians staff to poach saves from closer Chris Perez should the need arise. Pestano’s current ADP of 241.96 might make eyebrows raise, and his rankings in the “Big 3″ fantasy sites (ESPN #286, out of the top 100 RP on Yahoo!, out of the top 300 total on CBS) may leave owners wondering if my sanity has left me. However, I see Pestano growing into a solid, reliable, league-defining set-up man that will be worth setting aside a roster spot for.
  • RF Shin-Soo Choo – A tumultuous 2011 campaign seemed to have Choo on the ropes; off-the-field issues, injuries, and contract talk were predominant, and as a result his stats suffered greatly. A quiet off-season (and a stint with the South Korean Army) later, Choo seems more humbled, wiser, and ready to get his focus back onto baseball. Choo, even nearing the age of 30, has the potential to continue as a consistent .290/75/20/75/20 5×5 threat for several years, and the Indians will be relying on him heavily to produce if they have a chance in the AL Central. With an ADP of 63.50, and relatively high Big 3 rankings  (ESPN #75, Yahoo! #9 OF, CBS #75), a lot of folks are figuring for Choo to bounce back to the player of old.
  • SS Asdrubal Cabrera – Most people were surprised by AsCab’s power surge last year (25 HR, 92 RBI), but lost in that was another solid hitting (.273 BA) and running (17/22 SB) season. While we shouldn’t expect another power-laden season in 2012, the Indians will be expecting him to fill a major contributing and leadership role with the team this year. A line of .275/70/15/70/15 in your 5×5 league is not out of the question. Many folks have seen the low risk/high reward of the Tribe’s shortstop; Cabrera’s ADP sits at 78.96 (ahead of Rollins and Jeter), and the Big 3 set him as follows: ESPN #63, Yahoo! #5 SS, and CBS #86.
  • 2B Jason Kipnis – The Twitter hashtag #WeAreAllKipnesses made an appearance in the 2011 season when Jason Kipnis was called up to the Indians in July. The rookie wasn’t an instant hit, but put together an amazing month of August on the way to a final 5×5 of .272/24/7/19/5. Obviously using a keeper pick on anyone without a proven Big League record is inherently high-risk. But like Pestano, Kipnis has proven himself solid and consistent in his minor league career. With the chances high for the starting 2B job out of Spring Training, Kipnis’ upside is well worth the risk. His current ADP is 166.32, good enough to be in the top 15 in 2B league-wide. The Big 3 are equally kind, ranking him at #170 at ESPN, the #3 2B at Yahoo!, and #245 at CBS.

The Indians have a lot of decent pieces… But there are very few that will likely be breaking into Opening Day and producing consistently enough for recommendation. Plus there is the fact that the years past have proven that the weirdest things can happen in the City By The Lake. The above 4 players I see as key (and near untouchable) cogs in the quest to return the Indians to the dominance they had in the mid- to late-90′s.

Do you agree or disagree with my keeper recommendations? I’d love to get the conversations going with Tribe fans and non-fans alike! Go ahead and comment below, or feel free to follow me on Twitter (@JCPronkFan48) and continue the conversation there, too.

NOTE: All ADP values are from Mock Draft Central as of March 26, 2012.

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Preparing for the draft

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Preparing for the draft

Posted on 24 March 2012 by Mark Sherrard

If you’re like me, draft day is one of the most exciting and at the same time unnerving days of the year. You never feel like you are fully prepared and, like a college final exam, try to cram as much knowledge into your brain as possible. Here are some tips that I have found helpful in preparing for the draft which may help take some of the worry out of the process.

Stay up-to-date on the latest news
It is always important to stay on top of the latest news. Whether its a season-ending injury or a last minute trade, don’t be the guy who throws out a player’s name in the draft who is in the other league or hurt. I always make sure that I check out the latest news the night before the draft as well as the morning of the draft (if I have time).

Make a list and check it twice
Whether you are preparing for a straight draft or auction, it is important to have a draft list.

For a straight draft, this should be a ranking of the pool of players from 1 to 300 (or however deep your league goes into the player pool). There are various websites that put together lists like this and they can be a good starting point. But you should make sure you adjust these lists for injuries, changes in role, trades, etc.

You should also put together a list of players ranked by position, which helps you figure out when talent at a specific position is getting scarce and its time for you to draft that position. You don’t want to be stuck with a hole at any position.

For an auction league, you should have a list of available players sorted by highest value to lowest value. However, I have found that the best tool for an auction league is a listing by position, sorted by highest to lowest value. From there, you can identify “tiers” of players (i.e. $30-40, $20-30, $10-20, $1-10) and see where the depth of each position lies.

For example, if there is only one third baseman who falls in the $30-40 range, but 5 third baseman in the $20-30 range, then you would want to target the group in the $20-30 range, as the $30-40 player will probably be overbid due to scarcity. By targeting the 5 players in the $20-30 range, you can probably get one for at or below value, as the other owners will likely drop out of the bidding knowing that there are others available. However, don’t wait until the last player in that group is left or you will have to overbid to get him.

Mock Drafts and Mock Auctions
Another useful tool when preparing for the draft is to check out the various Mock Draft and Mock Auctions sites. One such site is mockdraftcentral.com. Also, fatasy sports sites, such as cbssports.com, have their own mock drafts that you can join and participate in.

These sites are useful in that they can give you an early indication as to which players might be over or undervalued. By comparing the Average Draft Position to your draft list or the Average Auction Value to your auction values, you can find potential bargains for your upcoming draft.

Depth Charts
Another important and sometimes overlooked tool is the depth chart. There are various websites that have depth charts for each team, including Rotoworld, CBSsports and Rototimes. Depth charts are important, especially in deep leagues, as it gives you insight into who the backups are in case of injury.

However, even with all these sites available, I find it more useful to put together my own depth chart. The main difference between my depth chart and theirs is that mine includes each players’ contract status (how long they are signed for or under team control) and minor leaguers who could replace them.

This last two points are important, for two reasons. First, if a player is in the last year of his contract with his team, there is a possibility that he could be traded in July, if that team is out of contention. This could mean a change in roll (for example, a closer who is traded to a team that already has a closer and therefore becomes the setup man) or a loss of stats (if you are in a NL or AL only league that doesn’t count stats from players traded to the other league). Second, if that player has been traded, it usually means that the team trading him is going to give the prospect a chance at that position and you want to be the team that has that prospect on its reserve roster.

Prospect Lists
Seems like everyone and their brother has a prospect list. I recently discovered a website that provides links to all the prospects lists on the web (Fantasy Rundown), which has proved invaluable to my draft preparation. I take the lists from the various sites and compile a composite list of prospects, which can be found at MLB Composite Index, that I use for my league’s reserve draft.

If you are in a keeper league or dynasty league, you already know the importance of scouting minor leaguers to find the next big star. Many times minor leaguers can be the difference between a successful season or a disappointing one. For example, one team in my league went into the 2010 draft with Jason Heyward, Stephen Strasburg and Michael Stanton, the consensus top 3 prospects at that time, on his reserve roster. He finished second (and would have won if Strasburg had not gotten hurt).

One thing to keep in mind though is that it is not just talent, but also opportunity that plays a role here. A player like Yonder Alonso of the Reds has plenty of talent, but spent last year at AAA, as he was stuck behind Joey Vott. He had to be traded to San Diego to finally get his opportunity. If you’re choosing between two minor leaguers ranked about the same, select the player who has the better opportunity for playing time (here’s where that depth chart comes in handy).

On the other hand, don’t get too caught up on the opportunity aspect that you pass on a high ranked prospect for a lower one with better opportunity. If a player is good enough, the team will make room for him.

Overall
There are a lot of good resources on the web to help you prepare for your draft. Hopefully the tips above will help give you an edge over the competition and allow you to dominate your draft.

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