The Reason -

How many times have you taken a look to check Starling Marte’s stats the past few games, waiting for his downfall to start? Shoot, the past two weeks or so I can count at least a dozen for myself. Which is why I decided it’s finally time to return to baseball writing and to dig into Marte’s season thus far.

First of all, before I get to the good stuff, how awesome is his name? I’m automatically including it in my 2013 MLB All-Names team, which I now just decided to create. Be on the look out for that soon, lucky you. Now let’s continue.

Basic Numbers -

Starling busted into the Majors late last year for the Pittsburgh Pirates and cranked a homer in his first at-bat (Only July 26). In 47 games and 167 ABs, he hit .257 and did his fare share of striking out and not taking many pitches. Because of his less than stellar OBP, he found himself in the later half of the Pirates lineup for the majority of his first go in the bigs.

Heading into the 2013 season, projections seemed to think his first full year would play out much like 2012 did. Frustrating fantasy baseball owners by teasing them of stealing 20+ bases but lacking a high average to make him truly worth an early gamble.

Flash forward to May 13th. Starling is hitting .329 in 36 games with just as many HR (5) RBI (17) and two less steals (10) than he had in 18 more at-bats in all of 2012. The biggest change? His BABIP has skyrocketed from .333 last year to .413 in 2013. Before digging into his stats tonight, I was under the impression that he was/is due for a slump eventually and that this number will recede closer to .350-.375 and his AVG would likely end up around .275. However, looking at it a little more, I believe this isn’t the case. Every year of the his professional baseball career (starting in 2009), Marte has had a BABIP of .389 or higher, except in 2012.

Last year was his first time in both AAA and MLB, was it just part of the expected learning curve? Has he figured it out in 2013? What’s changed?

Sabermetrics -

Looking at Batted Ball data through almost the same amount of at bats in 2012 to 2013, surprisingly, not much has changed. Ground Ball Percent has risen to 57.5 from 57, Line Drive Percent up to 19.8 from 18.4 and Fly Ball Percents down a hair to 22.6 from 24.6. If none of these ratios have changed, his Plate Discipline must be the answer, right?

Bingo. Starling is now swinging is almost half of the pitches he sees (49% from 46.1% in 2012) and is making contact 79.2% of the time, up from 72.3% last year. The biggest jump comes is pitches contacted that are thrown outside of the strike zone as balls. A whooping 63.9% rate from 51.5% last year.

Why are more pitches being connected with you ask? Looking at Pitch Type, Marte is now experiencing an increased dose of Fastballs (56.8% from 52.1%) as well as change-ups (9.4% from 6.8%). The pitch he is seeing less of? Sliders. Now at only 14.2%, down from 18.7%. It seems that batting exclusively in the lead-off spot has led to a more appetizing array of pitches for Starling to hit, and he has taken advantage of the opportunity.

Forward Looking -

It’s only normal to expect his BABIP to take some sort of a dip (especially if pitchers start throwing him more sliders), but not to the depths that experts have predicted. It will stay north of .380 and average will hover just north of .300 to finish the year. Tack on a potential 30 stole base campaign, along with a resurgence of Andrew McCutchen and you have all the makings for one valuable and exciting player.

Fantasy Analysis -

If you are fortunate enough to have Marte on your squad, you most likely picked him up via Free Agency. His ESPN Average Drafted Position saw him being taken around 224. Do you sell high? Well if your team is in trouble, go for it. Starling will easily end up a 20/20 OF and could easily eclipse 100 runs scored. He will go in the top 100 next year.

Did You Know? -

His middle name is Javier and he was born outside of Santo Domingo in the Dominican Republic.

Reactions and opinions are always welcomed. Find me on twitter: @pf_hayes

Michael Bourn, Cleveland Indians, OF

Face it, no one outside of Greater Cleveland wants to see this team do well. Their outfield no consists of three newcomers who were castoffs from their previous teams due to better acquisitions, continually failed expectations or just ugly mugs. Statistically speaking, Bourn sees his greatest success derive from his fleeted feet. He is a motor on the bases, stealing 40+ bases the past 5 years but that’s about it. Michael hits the ball into the ground over 50% of the time and will drive you bananas hoping for some stroke of power to emerge, it never will though. The main reason I’m hating him this year is because he reminds me of an outfielder that Cleveland had in their run in the 1990s, Kenny Lofton.

Jarrod Parker, Oakland Athletics, SP

For starters, the spelling of his name, although unique, provides a solid foundation to build your dislike on. Jarrod is coming off a season in which he was a major contributor to an A’s team that overachieved greatly.  Although he spotted an appealing 3.47 ERA, his BB/9 ratio of 3.13 and is preventing him from reaching another tier of success. He strikes out a decent-ish 6.95 per 9, but face it, his whole repertoire is boring. He and the A’s will lull you to sleep when they play at home and do nothing to add excitement when they are visiting your home ballpark. It’s time for Parker and the A’s to step out of the spotlight and let the Rangers and Angels be the teams that tickle our fancy during the late Autumn Pennant Races this year.

Mark Teixeira, New York Yankees, 1B

Picking Mark was a bit of a surprise for me too. On the surface there isn’t too much to hate. He doesn’t cause a ruckus in the clubhouse, he stays out of the media frenzy in the Big Apple and comes off as a “good guy”. However, on the fantasy front, you won’t get anything out of him that resembles his production from a few years ago. His batting average has been a sliver of what it was in 2009 when he hit 39 HRs and batted in 122, hovering below .260 the past three years. Perhaps the short porch in right has become a distraction? Or is it his smug face that just beckons to have you shaking your fist at him? Either way, playing on “America’s Team” provides the deciding factor as to why I’m hating on him this year. This year he will be the second best first baseman playing in New York, Ike Davis, your time is now.

What say you? Do you agree or disagree? Stay tuned for my National League version later this week.

Follow me on twitter: @pf_hayes

A Groundhog normally predicts a pessimistic forecast that threatens our patience and toys with our subconscious excitement of what is right around the corner. We continue pushing forward, welcoming distractions of Super Bowls, snow storms and reports of players being “in the best shape of their life“. Media relays reports of pitchers and catchers and your weary smile grows a smidgen more.

And then it happens. Awaking one morning to the chorus of birds chirping and the aroma of a fresh start fills your nostrils. You fail to notice the extra giddy-up in your step at first or being extra chatty in the coffee shop prior to work. But then it hits you, and you realize what has hijacked your brain and ability to focus. Baseball Fever has taken full control of your mind and body. It’ is now time for a new plot of memories and miracles to written into the course of history, with only a guarantee that each day provides an open slate of potential.

We never know exactly when the feeling will hit, but when it does, we welcome it immediately and submit fully. For some it arrives much earlier than anticipated. And for others, just in the knick of time. It is a new beginning of hope, aspirations along with a fresh perspective of what can be achieved. No matter how bleak the previous year or the spell that Winter led on, you have survived and have successfully reached the other side.

This indescribable feeling builds continuously as Spring Training leaves your head dreaming of pennants races and late nights spent with friends at stadiums and bonfires alike. The sensation boils over at a spectacle like no other, thousands diligently dodge work and make way towards the city. You are well aware of what this day means and your mind begins to wonder aimlessly. Embracing your fearful thoughts of unreasonable expectations and uncertainty, you sidestep and brush them away in order to bask in the moment of celebrating the culmination of America’s Pastime, for today is Opening Day.

Follow me on twitter: @pf_hayes

PS. The Title of this post derives from a book of the same name by Thomas Boswell. I recently finished it and definitely recommend it to any baseball fan. He paints an in-depth picture of an era of baseball that is just prior to my time.

Finishing up with the reviewing of my predictions of my fantasy stock watch predictions this year concludes with the buys. Starting with the holds, my confidence was high. After looking into the sells, I felt a little disappointed. Now, after digging into the buys, I’m just embarrassed. Let’s get this over with!

• July 16 – B.J. Upton
• July 23 – Tommy Milone
• August 6 – Jose Reyes
• August 13 – Clay Buchholz
• August 20 – Erick Aybar
• August 27 – Brandon Morrow

My theory of determining on who to go out and get ranged on a few different factors. I looked for players who were a little off the radar, historically finished the year well and that would be obtainable for a small price. Reyes was the only outlier, but he is under-appreciated and has had a silently solid year. With that said, I present you the ranked order of my success and failures.

1. B.J. Upton – As of July 16, Upton was ranked the 46 overall outfielder according to ESPN’s player rater. Today he sits at 16. In the past 30 days he has nine homers, eight stolen bases and 18 RBI. He isn’t walking much still, but has hit .260 and .255 the past two months, up from where he was at .238 in July. B.J. is the definition of a second half player. My best ‘buy’ selection, by far.
2. Erick Aybar – Erick was riding a hot streak when I piled on the bandwagon. While he has cooled a tad, he is still batting .352 with seven stolen bases and 18 runs in the past 30 days. Not too bad I say. Especially when he is most likely still a free agent in your league. He lacks power, but is getting on base and filling the stat sheets.
3. Jose Reyes – On August 6 when I bought Jose’s stock, he was batting .434/.474/.755 in his past 14 games. While that hot streak has cooled, he finished August with .298/.350/.500 and .283/.339/.396 in September. Yes, the power is gone, but he has ten swipes and is still an overlooked impact player.
4. Brandon Morrow – When I selected Brandon as a buy now player, I felt extremely confident. He was just coming off the DL and was poised to return to his potential. Well since then he has been mediocre at best with 23.1 IP and only 18 k’s. One of his four outings was short and disappointing. Not a great pick but not awful either.
5. Tommy Milone – Another pitcher who I felt great in buying. Milone was rated the 29th overall SP at the time, but now sits at 40. After the day I declared his stock of value, he went and had three straight bad outings. He then got back on track but was rocked again. His strikeout production has been volatile as well, one game with two, and the next with ten. Definitely not the player he was when I bought. He should have been sold, my mistake.
6. Clay Buchholz – And then there was Clay. Sticking with the theme of the last two players, I felt as I found a player who had struggled early on and that was finally turning it around. Nope. His ERA, already high at 4.24, has gone up to 4.33. Buccholz pitches late in to games on the regular (7+) but has a habit of allowing four earned runs. Even with these nice extended outings, Clay isn’t striking out more than five per outing. Not the type of performance I had expected. The Red Sox are truly a mess, and so was this selection.

Reactions and opinions are always welcomed. Find me on twitter: @pf_hayes

After taking a look last week on the undecided’s, this evening I’ll hopefully be finding out that I sold at the perfect time on six players over the course of two months. These three hitters and three pitchers are all players that I did not have the luxury of having on any of my teams this year, probably helped aid my decision making in cutting ties. Same format as last week (for the most part), here are the players and when I said sayonora.

• July 16 – Ian Desmond
• July 23 – R.A. Dickey
• August 6 – Drew Stubbs
• August 13 – Ryan Dempster
• August 20 – Starlin Castro
• August 27 – Gio Gonzalez

So it may seem as though I didn’t take too many big risks in determining who I selected, and although that could be a fair-ish argument, these players all have had solid years (for the most part). They were probably bargains when you drafted them, so that played into my criteria on maximizing payout for your investment.

Time to rank them in order of how the selection played out. Just like golf, the lower the number the better and whoever ends up number six, well, you probably missed your window of opportunity by a few weeks. Here we go!

1. Drew Stubbs – When I visited him on August 6 he was riding a very nice hot streak. Talking to the likes of .362/.415/.660 in the 14 days prior with 4 homers and 5 stolen bases. Since that deciding day I have looked like I know what I’m doing. In the past 30 days from now, Drew is batting .169 in 89 at-bats with 0 homeruns, 2 stolen bases and only five walks. This pick makes me feel good inside.
2. Starlin Castro – I wrote about Starlin just a few days after he signed a mega contract extension and I predicted gloom for the rest of the year (his slash was .280/.311/.428). Since then, he has been proving me wrong, but only slightly. Castro has started seeing the ball a lot better and has had his average bounce back up to where he normally hits. He hasn’t provided much fantasy stats, other than average, even with hitting .350 for the month of September thus far.
3. R. A. Dickey – The knuckleballer who stole the attention of the first half of the season. When I decided to push sell, Dickey was in a stretch where he allowed 20 earned runs in his last five appearances. In his last 30 days R.A. has thrown just under 36 innings while allowing 9 earned runs and accumulating 29 strikeouts. Good enough for a 2.27 ERA and 1.12 WHIP. Needless to say, he has been back on track for the most part. Check swinging strike for my decision here.
4. Ian Desmond – This shortstop, who is having a career year, was in the midst of getting injured and missed some games after I sold on July 16th. Ian was riding a hot streak where he smacked four homers, knocked in nine and had five swipes in his last 15 games. In his last 30 games he is batting .329 with four more homers, 11 RBI and two swipes. Yup, I clearly missed here. And he was a free agent in my league but I passed. I regret both decisions.
5. Gio Gonzalez – Before I sold on the 27th of August his K/9 was returning to his career average, almost as an indication that the NL has caught on to him. Well, that doesn’t appear to be the case. In his three starts since he has thrown 22 innings, allowed one run and struck out 23. All three of his starts have resulted in wins. He has been clutch down the stretch for the NL East leading Washington Nationals. I whiffed here.
6. Ryan Dempster – Selling on August 13, just a few starts into his AL stint, I felt real good about this call. His ERA was a low 2.65 but his SIERRA had him at 1.18 higher. Playing in the heat of Texas, I thought this was a no brainer. Well, since then, Ryan has thrown 26 innings in four starts (all leading to wins), struck out 28 and has allowed five earned runs. Dempster is my worst case scenario because of how confident I was, especially after the way he get all pissy when news of being traded to the Braves leaked early. Ugh.

So there you have it. I was actually pretty awful in figuring out who to sell. I hope you didn’t take my advice for all of them, but if you did, hopefully you got some good value in return!

Reactions and opinions are always welcomed. Find me on twitter: @pf_hayes

Well well, time is rapidly dwindling down in this 2012 year and we have reached the point where I review on my decisions to buy, sell or hold. This week I’ll gloss over all of the “holds” I issued. Since these, in theory, are the less sexy picks and less risky, might as well get them out of the way immediately. First, let us remember the blessed souls I decided to take an indecisive stance with:

• July 16 – Justin Upton
• July 23 – Yovani Gallardo
• August 6 – Chase Utley
• August 13 – Cliff Lee
• August 20 – Desmond Jennings
• August 27 – Tim Lincecum

Seems like an All-Start lineup for yesteryear, right?

I’ll now rank them in order of performance of falling in line with their “hold” designation. Not sure if this will makes sense, but hey, lets roll with it. One being a great hold (think Kate Upton), six being an awkward hold (think Oprah [?!])

1. Yovanni Gallardo – He has been rock solid and should have been a buy candidate. Gallardo has assumed ace of the staff with Grienke gone and has posted a 6-1 record since my article posed on July 23. He had two bad outings with seven earned runs each, but bounced back nicely with  a minimum of seven innings pitched in all his wins. The consistency is still a hesitation from deeming him among the elite, maybe in 2013.
2. Cliff Lee – This pick was pretty much a no-doubter. I mean come on, he had one win heading into my article post on August 13. Since then he notched two more wins vs zero losses with four quality starts. In these 28.1 IP he has struck out 31 and only walked two. Yup, definitely along the lines of his expectations on the year. Be glad to own him down the stretch.
3. Tim Lincecum – Seems I completely rock the pitchers on this, huh? To be fair Lincecum only had one appearance since my post on August 27, but he was solid, to the tune of 6.1 IP, seven K’s and three walks. It is apparent that Tim still hasn’t completely rediscovered his CY Young caliber, but all signs point to a big sigh of relief. I’m still holding and waiting on him.
4. Desmond Jennings – Following up his breakthrough 2011 year with shattered dreams. As of August 20 he was batting under .250 and was getting dropped all together in many formats. Since that article he has brought his average above .250 and is hitting .318 in the past 14 days with three homers and two stolen bases. The Rays are heating up as well (think Evan Longoria means anything to this team? Should he be in the MVP discussion?), and Desmond has been a benefit and not a liability along the way. Expect to see the Rays in the postseason (just have that feeling) and we will really see the type of player Jennings will be heading into 2013.
5. Chase Utley – God bless your heart. You are still out there playing on fragmented knees and glimmers of the golden years. Yes, since August 6 you have had your ups and downs, but of late, it’s mostly down. August was a solid month, but your average on the year has gone down since I posted, but you have hit seven more homers and knocked in 23 (that’s a positive, right?!). You, more than any other, are what you are. Your name in a fantasy lineup still demands glance backs and some fear in opposing managers, however, that luster is almost off as well. Will an off-season of rest help your health? Time will only tell, and the Father is not on your side. (
6. Justin Upton – You should have sold him when you had the chance this year. Prior to my post on July 16, Justin’s slash line was .264/.351/.393 and today it sits at .271/.350/.405. Still completely lacking sex appeal. The only hope for owners of the younger Upton is that this 2012 year is an outlier and Justin will bounce back in 2013 motivated and rejuvenated. Heck, I might even buy him off you for nickels on the dollar.

In review, I feel pretty good as to the players I picked. A few bounced back big time and some just disappointed. Current day, I would now buy two of them, keep holding two and sell two. What are your thoughts?

Reactions and opinions are always welcomed. Find me on twitter: @pf_hayes

Sabermetric Spotlight: Johnny Cueto, SP, Cincinnati Reds

The Reason -

I never would have guessed that a Cincinnati Reds pitcher would be having a CY Young caliber year. This is mainly due to playing at Great American Ballpark, a band box of sorts. I always try and avoid any pitchers who are throwing here and love picking up players who hit there. So to have Johnny perform this well, it’s something I would have never predicted. Now he is getting lots of plugs in CY Young talk, so lets see why!

Basic Numbers -

Lets look at the past five years at once, cool?

Hello consistent improvement. His ERA, and WHIP all improved steadily from 2008 to 2011. This year has been, at least statistically, a step back from 2011. However this year Cueto has 17 wins and will cross 200 IP for the first time in his career, two factors that will definitely play a part of the CY Young raace.

Sabermetrics -

The past two years have been stellar for Johnny. The only difference between the two are the increased K/9 of 7.13 (from 6) and the deceased BB% at 5.6% (from 7.5%). Yes, he is striking out more and walking less. This is a deadly combo. Unfortunately this year welcomes Cueto with a higher BABIP of 2.91 and this results in a higher BAA of .239, still below his career average though.

Inducing more line-drives seems trouble some, especially at 22.2%, a career high. The only bright spot about that is the decrease in fly-balls (29% from 30.1%), which translates into less homeruns overall. Sure, his HR rate is slightly up, but it is still well over half of what it was when he broke into the league in 2008 and 2009. His SIERA and ERA indicates that he is having results that are better than predicted, given his stats. The trend from the past three years sees this as normal and it seems as if Johnny is fully comfortable using his arsenal and knowing what type of pitcher he is. Some would say this is the “Art of Pitching”. #Barf (Shot at Tigers radio broadcast? Yup!)

Pitch Types and Speed -

Wow. Johnny is throwing his two-seamer fastball 11% less than 2011 (40.3% to 29.3%). The majority of this is found with his change-up, now being thrown 20.1% (up from 9.7%). He has also introduce a cutter this year, which he has thrown 1.2% of the time.

Would you be shocked that I told you batters are almost having identical results as to swings and locations? Me neither. Perhaps the biggest change is the 62.5% of first strikes being thrown, up from 55.6% last year. This has lead to a slight decrease in contact of swings when the pitch is a strike (87.7% from 90.1%). These are all good things, and just more evidence as to his improvements.

Forward Looking -

September 1st is this weekend, meaning, there isn’t much left to this 2012 MLB year. Johnny is estimated to have five more starts, four of these being at home. He will throw vs Philadelphia, vs Houston, @ Miami, vs Los Angeles and vs Milwaukee. The Reds are 8.5 games up in the Central and almost a near lock (99.4%) to make the playoffs. He will be throwing in the post-season where we will get to see if the rest of the nation gets clued in on just how consistent Cueto is.

Fantasy Analysis -

He isn’t doing you any favors in the K department, but leading the majors in Wins with 17 is nice, right? His ERA and WHIP are great, you are throwing him with confidence knowing that the risk is low and the reward is known ahead of time. While he may not be someone that wows you, he has be an anchor on your team and silencing your woes when your other pitchers tank it. Show him more love already!

Did You Know? -

Johnny’s hero and role model? None other than fellow Dominican, Pedro Martinez.

Conclusion and Projection -

After interpreting all of Johnny’s stats for the past few years, it is clearly evident that he has established himself as a top caliber pitcher. Why he will never have a upper echelon strikeout rate, he will continue to be consistent and produce Wins and eat up innings for the Reds. His contract is up in 2014 and it will be interesting to see if Cincinnati tries to sign him to a contract extension and lock him up long term. Look for the spotlight to really turn to Johnny as the month of September dwindles and the talk of awards and the post-season take full effect.

Reactions and opinions are always welcomed. Find me on twitter: @pf_hayes

Tim Lincecum – SP, San Francisco Giants

#152 on ESPNs 5×5 Player Rater for SPs

I write this knowing that Lincecum is throwing live on ESPN right now, but I’m not watching (still no cable) so the results shouldn’t be factored into what I’m about to write. Any-who, Timmy has had quite the wild ride of a year. After seeing the wheels completely fall off the train in the first two months with an ERA well north of 5.00, he has regained some of his magic of late. Post All-Star break he has an ERA of 3.10.

So what has changed? Actually, a lot, and not for the better. He is walking more batters (3.5+ BB/9) and is striking out batters less (15.3% from his avg of 22-24%). However, he isn’t giving up the long ball as he was in the first half of the year (HR/FB of 6.3% in August, 17% in July). After seeing these numbers, and knowing that he is allowing a lot of base hits still (30 hits in last 29  2/3 IP), I am still holding him. Going in I was solid in buying, but I’ve just changed my mind. He isn’t a keeper for your team next year but he still can provide a boost for your championship run.

My verdict: Hold,  just like that pile of clothes you keep meaning to give to Goodwill.

Gio Gonzalez – SP, Washington Nationals

#13 on ESPNs 5×5 Player Rater for SPs

Gio Gonzalez started the 2012 year lights out for his new team in the National League. He is a great example of a steal in the draft for where you picked him up at (134 ADP). The first two months saw him have an ERA near 2.00 and fanning batters at a rate in 10+/9. The case could be made that these numbers, along with a BABIP of near .230, that the NL opponents simply haven’t had a chance to adjust to seeing Gio for their first time.

That isn’t the case anymore, hitters are becoming very comfortable with Gio now. His ERA during the early summer months ballooned to above 4.00, but have now regressed to near 3.oo-ish. It seems that the hitters got to Gio the 2nd time through and he as made adjustments to end up somewhere in the middle of the two extremes so far. The downside is that his K/9 rate has fallen to under 8.0 the past two months and his BABIP has rebounded to near the league average. He still is a solid play in all formats and should be inserted into your lineup with confidence, just know that the beginning of the year is a distant past and to have reasonable expectations.

Side note, Gio might have the most hilarious face when he releases the ball out of any pitcher I’ve seen.

My verdict: Selling! His value has maxed out and now is the best time to try and capitalize on it.

Brandon Morrow – SP, Toronto Blue Jays

#51 on ESPNs 5×5 Player Rater for SPs

After a bit of time on the DL, @2morrow23 has only made one appearance, and it was a short one (struck out 7 in 4 2/3 IP). Sure he plays on a team that has been playing with half of its firepower, not to mention completely cemented in the basement of the AL East. That won’t stop me from pursuing him on my team though. When he is on, his K/9 is on the front page of the leaderboard of all MLB. His 2012 year has been a little step back as far as K’s go, but his ERA is sitting nicely at 3.06. He has simply stopped walking as many batters as he used to (2.73/9 down from 3.46/9 in 2011).

If he can remain healthy for the rest of the year he could be a real nice piece to have for your fantasy baseball stretch run. Although I don’t have him right now, I’m mentally placing him on  my targeted list of starting pitchers I like for next year. As far as acquiring him this year, work the health angle with the current owner. His upcoming slate of starts is somewhat favorable too – vs TB, @ BAL and vs SEA. Go and get him!

My verdict: Buy and stash under your bed just like that guitar you purchased but never play.

Reactions and opinions are always welcomed. Find me on twitter: @pf_hayes

The Reason -

There should be zero question as to why I’m writing about Mike Trout for my latest installment of Sabermetric Spotlight. The kid is a phenom, already. Most likely your 2012 AL MVP. He just turned 21. My biggest question heading into this article is finding out what exactly he excels with and gain some more respect for just how special this year has been. Man crush engage!

Basic Numbers -

Some of you might not remember that he appeared in 40 games last year and recorded 132 plate appearances, lets compare to this year.

Weird, huh? Last year look like numbers you would see from a 19 year-old making their major league debut. This year he has an unreal .344/.407/.606 slash line, with not to mention 24 HRs and 39 SBs. These are video game numbers. I guess the only negative is that he strikes out more than he walks?

Sabermetrics -

Immediately we see that he has already improved his eye and patience at the plate. Walking almost 3% more this year and striking out 2% less. That is a good and scary trend (for opposing pitchers, duh). Yes, Mike’s BABIP is sky high at .390 but it isn’t even one of the highest two on the year (Andrew McCutchen and Austin Jackson take the claim), it might dip a bit to finish the year, but it’s not far off from past years leaders. His power (ISO) has skyrocketed this year as he has only begun (more on this later) to fill out, his speed has not waned as a result either.

His line-drive percent is right near 1 out of 4 which translates into seeing the ball very well out of pitchers hand. Trout isn’t hitting that many fly-balls, but when he does, over 1 out of 5 leave the yard, this will fall. There really isn’t much to hate, he hits ground-balls the most, but with his speed, there is no worry.

Pitch and Swing Data -

Looking at what pitches he is seeing, teams have shied away from the curveball (down 3.4% to 8.2%) and have thrown more fastballs (up to 65.9% from 58.2% last year). All the rest are steady…why aren’t teams throwing more curves to him?

Further continuing the theme of his sharpened eye, Mike is swinging at less pitches outside of the strikzone (down 3.5% to 26.3%).  When he does swing at a would-be-called ball, he is making more contact (73.9% of the time up from 68%). Overall, he is swinging at just about the same amount of pitches (39.7%) and is seeing 50.7% of total pitches inside the strikezone. He swings at the first pitch a little over half the time at 55.6% and only swings and misses on 6.5% of pitches (down form 7.1% last year). He has robotic eyes.

Forward Looking -

His current WAR is 7.2 and he has played 20 games less than the next highest at 6.3. Think about that.

Looking more into the future than this year, his body appears as if it will fill out and continue to add muscle. Will his homeruns increase? Yes. Will his stolenbases dip? Yes. Will he still be a stud? Yes.

There is nothing not to like here.

Fantasy Analysis -

Do you like creating superhuman baseball players in video games? Well, that’s essentially what Mike Trout is. He hits for power, steals bases, leading the league in average and scores almost a run per game. If you have him and aren’t in the top 3 or 4 of your league, shame on you!

Did You Know? -

The Yankees were poised to take Mike if  he fell to them 4 picks later in the 2009 draft.

Conclusion and Projection -

Attempting to answer my question is easy and hard at the same time. His eye for the ball is outstanding and he does everything well. The only negative thing about Mike Trout is that he plays out on the west coast. The majority of (baseball) America (Eastern Seaboard) is not getting the routine opportunities to see his games live, which is a tragedy. This 2012 year of his happens so rare that I would be shocked to see it replicated in my lifetime (I’m 27). Doing what he is doing as a rookie is unbelievable. In my opinion there is not even a debate on who should win the AL MVP this year, it’s the rookie, Mike Trout. If the Angels fail to make the playoffs some writers will hold that against him in balloting, but it wont matter, he has been the biggest difference on any team all year, give him the hardware!

 Reactions and opinions are always welcomed. Find me on twitter: @pf_hayes

Starlin Castro – SS, Chicago Cubs

#3 on ESPNs 5×5 Player Rater for SSs

Starlin Castro just signed a hefty contract extension, to the tone of 7 years and $60 million in total. This alone is part of the reason why I’m selling Starlin from this point on. Watching the 9th inning of the game against the Reds yesterday afternoon led me to the other reason. Castro could have scored on a blooper in the outfielder which was booted to the wall but completely ignored the 3rd base coaches windmill motion and stopped, he would have scored easily. To me, from just that one play it was apparent that his head isn’t in the game (for whatever reason) and was enough for me to sell on him. This is a gut instinct pick.

Although holding one of the best names in baseball is a plus, the 2012 year been one of a bit of regression for Starlin Castro. His slash reads .280/.311/.428, down in all three from 2011. He is striking out at a rate north of 15% and is only walking just a clip above 4%. Not the type of numbers that are inspiring at all. He has hit his career high in HRs with 12 and should eclipse last years RBI total of 60 by the end of September. From a fantasy perspective his best asset is the amount of games he plays, and he should continue to get better over the next four years, as he is only 22. Man, the Cubs are bad.

My verdict: Sell immediately like a hot pancake

Erick Aybar – SS, Los Angeles

1# on ESPNs 5×5 Player Rater for SSs in the past 15 days

Erick Aaybar had just returned from a quick trip to the DL and has been on fire since. Eight multi-hit games since August 6th, in fact. While his year in a whole has been subpar compared to last, this recent hot streak is the perfect time to get on board. His last 14 days have him at a rate of .391/.471/.652 along with 3 HRs and 4 stolen bases.

Although the Angels have been struggling of late, and can’t get a lick of decent pitching, the offense has all the potential to explode at any second. Erick’s .295 BABIP is 10 points lower than his career average of .310, which indicates that the ball could be taking a few more bounces his way. Looking at his career numbers, August is typically his 2nd worst month, so he is bucking that trend as well. September and October see him at a pace of .290, which is just what we want as confidence when we buy him for the stretch run. I feel confident about this one.

Side note, Aybar has some of the best images I’ve seen when searching too. Hilarious.

My verdict: Buy now like a manager special at the grocery store

Desmond Jennings – OF, Tampa Bay Rays

16# on ESPNs 5×5 Player Rater for OFs in the last 15 days

Raise your hand if you were suckered into believing the hype on Desmond Jennings last year and ended up keeping him for 2012? My hand is waving hello. The entire year has been one of frustration for owners of Jennings and only lately have we witnessed some of the production we have been salivating for. Hitting .372/.426/.558 in the past 14 days is a breath of fresh air and a glimmer of hope that the production will remain throughout the remainder of the season.

I’m sure you have toyed with the thought of dropping him earlier in the year, especially while he was on the DL, but I have an inkling that the patience will pay off. The Rays are smoking hot right now and will be in the thick of the AL Wild Card race to the end. Desmond is still batting under .250 for the year, so don’t get too confident just yet. Expect another drought or two where the struggles resurface, which is why he is the ideal hold candidate right now. He’s close to becoming a buy but not quite yet.

My verdict: Hold while shaking your head at a frustrating year of aggravation and seeing him get dropped to 7th in the lineup at times.

Reactions and opinions are always welcomed. Find me on twitter: @pf_hayes