The Hump Day Look See – The Friday Edition!

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The Hump Day Look See – The Friday Edition!

Posted on 08 June 2012 by J. Ellet Lambie

The Hump Day Look See is your weekly Wednesday foray into all things fantasy baseball. Sneaky stat lines, rapid risers, trends and tricks to help maximize your roster are all celebrated here. Equal parts analysis and common sense with a splash of humor, served fresh every Wednesday morning right here on Full Spectrum Baseball.

Well kids, I’m a little tardy this week, but we’re back to get you through your fantasy weekend with the adds & drops and diamonds in the rough. As with the actual baseball season, it’s reaching the point where it isn’t early anymore, and you need to sure up your lineups and rotations for the long haul.

We’ve seen enough to have a better feel for who’s real, and who isn’t. Sure, the odd mid-season star will emerge, but odds are he’s already made some noise at one point. The flashes in the pan have mostly sizzled out, the Mike Trout‘s and Bryce Harper‘s of the world are on big league rosters and playing everyday. So who’s movin and groovin the last two weeks? Glad you asked.

Top 10 Added Hitters in ESPN Standard Leagues – Last 14 Days:

Player % Add/Drop % owned Notes
Dexter Fowler COL – OF +62 97.8 Loads of talent, starting to materialize. Power has been above projections. You likely missed your window, but if he’s out there, make him yours.
Justin Smoak SEA – 1B +47.1 53.6 5 HR, 14 RBI in in his last 15. Smoakamotive is picking up steam in a big way. Still available in nearly 1/2 of leagues.
Gordon Beckham +40.9 53.4 On a 10 game hitting streak, 16-47 with 3 HR in that span. Tread lightly here, Beckham isn’t known for long-term consistency.
Carlos Quentin SD – OF +35 96.5 .481 with 5 bombs in his last 15. He’s a serious trade candidate next month, watch where he lands. IF he stays healthy, he’ll be key.
Quintin Berry DET – OF +29.8 33.5 27 yr old career Minor Leaguer found work with Austin Jackson hurt, has played his way into a job elsewhere in the outfield even after AJAX comes back.
Michael Brantley CLE – OF +28.5 78.5 #10 last week, 16 hits, 14 RBI and 3 steals in his last 15 games. He has the tools, won’t be under the radar much longer.
Paul Goldschmidt ARI – 1B +26.6 61.7 Kid has some serious power, 5 HR in his last 15 including a 481 ft bomb. Keep an eye on his platoon situation.
Allen Craig STL – OF/1B +26.1 93.8 Picked up where he left off upon returning from the DL. Dual eligibility and everyday playing time make him the real deal.
Jared Saltalamacchia BOS – C +23.1 49 Still sitting against lefties, still mashing against righties. .294 with 4 HR, 8 RBI in last 15.
Marco Scutaro COL – SS/2B +17.9 68.7 Steady and versatile across 5 categories with dual eligibility, 3 of his 6 steals in his last 15 games.

 

And the Yang of failure, also known as the 10 most dropped:

 

Andy Dirks DET – OF (DL) -70.1 19.4 Hit the DL at the worst possible time, but expected to return 6/15 after minimum stay. Kid can hit, and will.
Nick Markakis BAL – OF (DL) -34.5 65.5 Still 2-3 weeks away from returning (wrist surgery), keep him on your watch list. A strong 2nd half very likely in the cards.
Raul Ibanez NYY – OF/DH -27.7 58.2 .229, 0 HR, 3 RBI in his last 15. He ain’t getting younger, but then again, right field in Yankee stadium ain’t getting shorter. Expect the streakiness to continue.
Yonder Alonso SD – 1B/OF -26.3 19.9 Since his 10 game hitting streak ended 5/28 – .143 (7/49) with 3 RBI. Kid has big talent, but still plays for the Padres, and in Petco.
Carlos Lee HOU – 1B/OF (DL) -13.6 61.4 Eligible to return 6/18, unsure if he will. Should get healthy just in time to be traded.
Alex Avila DET – C (DL) -20.9 62.2 Tight hamstring shut him down, been banged up all year. Expect a minimum stay and a strong bat upon return. Was making solid contact to the gaps before his hiatus.
Brennan Boesch DET – OF -20.2 34.7 Has looked lost lately, 8-49 with 0 HR in his last 15. Might lose his starting job with Quintin Berry emerging.
Elliot Johnson TB – SS -18.8 10.3 Was a high riser, now with 5 hits since May 25th he’s just another middle infielder to shrug your shoulders over. Minimal power, XBH, RBI – you can do better.
Luke Scott TB – DH/OF -18.2 60.2 1 HR in his last 15, and let’s face it – if he’s not hitting bombs and driving in runs, he’s about useless.
Mitch Moreland TEX – 1B/OF -16.2 71 Had 2 hits last night, which doubled his total for the previous 10 games – enough said.

It’s garage sale season, and boy do I love me some bargains! Here’s the equivalent of a $1 alarm clock in this week’s   Five Under 50 - five players owned in less than 50% of ESPN standard leagues that can help your roster right now.

Quintin Berry DET – OF 35.4%: Berry became the first Detroit Tiger EVER to score 11 runs in his first 10 games in the bigs. EVER. I didn’t expect that either. He doesn’t have the pedigree, but he has the wheels and has produced in his injury induced audition. I expect he’ll not only stick with the big club, but in the top of the order in front of Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder. Too bad you don’t record points for defensive gems, or else this kid would be the steal of the century.

Zack Cosart CIN – SS 26.4%: While he’s seen some peaks and valleys, this young man can flat out play. He won’t be straight line consistent, as rookies rarely are, but he provides a versatile set of tools that can enhance your entire 5 x 5. Contact hitter with an eye for the gaps, will swipe his fair share of bags and has some sneaky power. It’s getting warmer in Cincy, and the bandbox is gonna start rocking.

Doug Fister DET – SP 45.5%: He technically can’t help your team right now, as he’s still about a week away from rejoining the team (DL oblique strain). However, he’s out there in more than 1/2 of leagues and has dynamite stuff. He could return to the hill as soon as June 13. Remove his 2 outings impacted by injury and what do you have? 4 quality starts, 19/6 K/BB ratio. Twisted Fister was a beast in the 2nd half last year, I expect more of the same this time around.

Barry Zito SFG – SP 31.0%: I’m as skeptical as you are. I’ve seen him flounder, I’ve made the jokes. But the numbers are what the numbers are. Find me another guy with an ERA under 3.00 and 5 wins through 66 IP owned in less than 1/3 of leagues. The 39/28 K/BB ratio isn’t great, it ain’t even good, but it isn’t terrible. If he continues to move the ball and throw strikes there’s no reason he can’t continue this little renasaince.

Sergio Romo SFG – RP 20%: 3 saves since June 2nd, and it appears he’ll get the lions share of opportunities for now at least. 23 K’s in 16.2 innings pitched with a 0.54 ERA and 0.78 WHIP. Nursing a sublexed knee, but seems to be available tonight and going forward.

J. Ellet Lambie covers Fantasy Baseball and Card Collecting for Full Spectrum Baseball, and opines on the Detroit Tigers for Motor City Bengals. You can follow him on twitter @lembeck451. 

 

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The Hump Day Look See 5/30/12 – Panic in pitchertown!

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The Hump Day Look See 5/30/12 – Panic in pitchertown!

Posted on 30 May 2012 by J. Ellet Lambie

The Hump Day Look See is your weekly Wednesday foray into all things fantasy baseball. Sneaky stat lines, rapid risers, trends and tricks to help maximize your roster are all celebrated here. Equal parts analysis and common sense with a splash of humor, served fresh every Wednesday morning right here on Full Spectrum Baseball.

THE END IS NIGH! RUN FOR THE HILLS!

That is, if you happen to own Roy Halladay or Jered Weaver, who were both shelved this week with injuries. Halladay is expected to miss 6-8 weeks, there is not yet a timetable for Jered Weaver to resume his duties on the bump. Also hobbling to the sidelines in the past two weeks: Ted Lilly, John Danks, Danny Duffy and Marco Estrada. LIGHT THE LANTERNS AND HEAD FOR THE SHELTER!

Or….you could look elsewhere on the disabled list to names such as Brandon McCarthy, Jonathan Sanchez and Vance Worley – all three should return in the next week and change. Aces they are not, serviceable stop gaps that could become more? Sure, it’s possible.

And don’t forget to frantically check the free agent pool in all of your leagues for Roy Oswalt, now that he has agreed to join the Texas Rangers. I have to imagine we’re looking at a couple of weeks minimum of stretching him out before he toes a major league rubber, so don’t expect a miracle this week. Also of note, his career OPS against at Ameriquest (Arlington) is .878, with a 4.78 ERA and 9 HR allowed in 52.2 innings pitched. Caveat Emptor my friends.

I had a couple of inquiries following the first HDLS post last week, wondering why I listed the top 10 added and dropped hitters, but not pitchers. A fair question. With a decent percentage of players in ESPN standard 5 x 5 rotisserie leagues streaming pitchers each week, I’ve found it skews the numbers, and paints a confusing picture. So to balance the coverage, I’ll make an effort to highlight pitching options in other ways each week – see above. You can also check out the AL and NL weekly Pitching Planning posts right here at Full Spectrum Baseball.

Top 10 Added Hitters in ESPN Standard Leagues – Last 14 Days:

Player % Add/Drop %
owned
Notes
Dayan Viciedo CWS – OF +52.8 83.2 #4 last week, added +20% since. 22/55 with 7 HR, 20 RBI in last 15 games.
Jeff Francoeur KC – OF +40.1 81.2 Frenchy is too good to have been that bad for that long, .375 with 4 bombs in last 15, hope you bought low.
Jonathan Lucroy MIL – C +34.4 78.4 News of his broken hand will put out this fire, but keep him on your watch list for mid/late July.
Justin Morneau MIN – 1B +33.1 91.3 5 HR and 16 steaks since his return from the DL. If he stays on the field he should stay in your lineup.
Mitch Moreland TEX – 1B/OF +33 87.1 On the fringe last week. Multi-position eligible, power stroke like the weather, getting warmer.
Chris Davis BAL 3B/1B +25 74.4 6th most dropped last week, streaky hitter that will inspire the Yo-Yo effect.
A.J. Pierzynski CWS – C +22.3 85.6 Top 5 among ALL catchers in Hits, Runs, HR, RBI – How is he still available in 15% of leagues?
Jed Lowrie HOU – 3B/SS +17.1 94.6 Health and a change of scenery have done wonders – 1/2 of his HR (4 of 8) in last 15 games.
A.J. Ellis LAD – C +16.5 28.2 Almost June and still hitting .315, smells like a regression candidate to me (.282 career), but he’s extra scrappy.
Michael Brantley CLE – OF +15.8 37.5 Hit safely in 8 straight games, 7 RBI and 6 SB in that stretch.

And the Yang of failure, also known as the 10 most dropped:

Player %
Add/Drop
%
owned
Notes
Cody Ross BOS – OF (DL) -37.3 27.3 Victim of nervous injury drops, might be back in a couple of weeks.
Chipper Jones ATL – 3B (DL) -37.2 47.3 Hopes to return soon, surgery to drain fluid from his leg not an encouraging sign.
Lance Berkman STL – 1B/OF -22.4 49.8 Residual dropping from 6-10 week prognosis of last week.
Miguel Montero ARI – C -21.7 67.9 Missed 5 games with a groin injury, signed a massive new deal, still hitting .248 with only 2 HR’s, but OBP .342 – excellent buy low candidate.
Torii Hunter LAA – OF -13.6 61.4 Hangover droppage from time away for family issues. Returns Tuesday night.
Bryan LaHair CHC – 1B/OF -12.9 87.1 Returned to earth with a miserable week. 3 for 4 Monday, but likely to sit against lefties (3-22 this season).
Emilio Bonifacio MIA – 2B/SS/3B (DL) -11.2 86.7 Oh sweet Emilio, curse your balky thumb. Out for a while but speed doesn’t slump, keep your eyes on him close to his return.
Jon Jay STL – OF (DL) -8.8 29.4 Could be back in 10-14 days, should resume a starting role then. 9 Hits and 8 Runs in final 10 games before injury.
Jemile Weeks OAK – 2B -8.2 51.5 .235 with 3 Runs, 1 SB, 0 HR, 0 RBI in last 15 games. Perhaps track is his forte.
Robert Andino BAL – 2B/SS/3B -7.8 31.4 Ladies and gentlemen, this is what regression to the mean looks like while wearing an orange hat.

And for the value shopper, this week’s 5 Under 50 – five players owned in less than 50% of ESPN standard leagues that can help your roster right now. Last week I recommended Anthony Bass of the Padres, who then proceeded to have his worst outing of the year, arguably. Consider this proof I am not in fact omnipotent. With that being said, stick with the kid, he’s been far more good than bad this season. I also pointed a finger at Joe Blanton, insert joke here. On the upside, Alcides Escobar, J.P. Arencibia and Daniel Nava did not burst into fantasy flames (Arencibia did hit .136, but had 2 HR), so I suppose there is hope after all.

Paul Goldschmidt ARI – 1B 35.4%: He hit a 471 foot HR the other day. Not kidding. 471 feet. The former prized prospect has hit in 7 straight games through Monday, with 4 doubles and 7 runs scored over that span. He’s at least worth a stash if you’re thin at 1B short term.

Michael Brantley CLE – OF 37.5%: As mentioned above in the most added section (#10), he’s been hitting and running and doing all sorts of fun fantasy things. If he keeps it up he’ll be ineligible for this category in no time.

Gregor Blanco SFG – OF 19.6%: 21 runs scored with a .397 OBP in 95 at-bats from the leadoff spot this year. Sustainable long term? Eh, perhaps not, but even with a bit of a slide he’ll remain above average. 6 steals on the year to boot.

Casey Janssen TOR – RP 46.6%: He’s picked up 4 saves since taking over closer duties in Toronto, and boasts a respectable 2.89 ERA and an impressive 0.91 WHIP in that time. Most closers suffer a hiccup here and there, and he won’t be immune, but he should bolster your bottom line more than he hurts it.

Homer Bailey CIN – SP 12.5%: As I type this Bailey just nailed down complete game win, allowing 1 run on 4 hits against the Pirates. That’s 3 straight wins and 4 consecutive starts with 3 or fewer earned runs allowed. He’s walked 5 in those starts while striking out 21.

Your questions and thoughts are welcomed, and encouraged, both here in the comments and on twitter @lembeck451. All stats accurate as of 10 PM EDT 5/29/12. 

 

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Electronic Cardboard

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Electronic Cardboard

Posted on 29 May 2012 by J. Ellet Lambie

Electronic Cardboard is a weekly look around the electronic marketplace of baseball card collecting. Each week we’ll browse Ebay for hot items and trends, and explore other sites offering opportunities to build your collection – one card or one case at a time. This column will highlight various segments of the market, from hot new prospects to Hall of Famers, graded cards, autograph, relic and limited edition cards.

For the record, I have no affiliation with any of the items or sellers highlighted in this column. This is not a tout service, your bids and your money are your business. Any questions about the items listed should be directed to the listed seller.

If you’re interested in a particular player or card and would like to see it highlighted in a future column….send requests via email to electroniccardboard@gmail.com, or message me on twitter @lembeck451

This week we’re exploring two high-rising prospects in Jurickson Profar and Dylan Bundy. We’ll also highlight some gorgeous Topps Tribute Hall of Fame Relic cards and have the Ebay item of the week.

Jurickson Profar is a 19 year old shortstop from Curacao in the Texas Rangers organization, currently playing for the Frisco RoughRiders in the AA Texas League. Baseball America ranked him the 7th best prospect in the game entering 2012. He’s hitting .299/.365/.503 with an .826 OPS through 46 games. He doesn’t turn 20 years of age until February, and it’s doubtful he makes an impact at the MLB level for at least another year, probably two. With that said, his 2011 Bowman Chrome cards are already sought after by many collectors. This week I kept my eyes on a few select high end rookie variations:

2011 Bowman Chrome #BCP82 – graded PSA 10. The auction ended Thursday with a winning bid of $10.50

Here’s a beautiful Blue Refractor Auto version, numbered 143/150. Current high bid as of press time is $152.50. The auction ends June 3rd.

I followed 3 listings for an auto refractor numbered to 500 that ended this past week, the average winning bid coming in at $77.50. He has Hanley Ramirez potential (scouts say), but you’ll be paying premier prices for limited auto’s from the Bowman Chrome. For my money a PSA or BGS Gem graded Chrome non auto is a reasonably priced alternative.

Dylan Bundy was the 4th overall selection in the 2011 player entry draft, selected by the Baltimore Orioles. the 19 year old is a 6’1″ RHP currently twirling for the Frederick Keys of the Advanced A Carolina League. He was promoted recently after 30 innings of unabashed domination for the Delmarva Shorebirds of the Sally League, where he posted a perfect 0.00 ERA with 40 K’s against 2 BB’s in that span. That’s not a typo, a 40/2 K/BB ration in 30 IP.

He’s also featured in the 2011 Bowman series, and his chrome auto refractors are already drawing large bids.

This particular version, #’d 1/500 is sitting at $145.50, set to end around 9PM Eastern 5/27.

I watched 3 non-refractor auto versions of this card (BCAP-DB) over the past week, the average winning bid being $85.82

For those with a smaller budget, his non-auto bowman chrome rookies are trending in the neighborhood of $3 – $5 a piece, with the refractors rising according to the limited nature.  His 2011 Donruss Elite and Bowman Sterling rookies are also drawing strong interest.

I collect my fair share of prospects and rookies, but my heart is hooked on Hall of Famers. From vintage to the modern relic and limited autograph inserts I’m happy to stuff my collection with value when I find it here.

This week is plethora of remarkable cards from the 2011 Topps Tribute set. I’ve found dual relics numbered to 99 or less of Hall of Famers Yogi Berra, Rogers Hornsby, Hank Greenberg, Johnny Bench, Orlando Cepeda and Frank Robinson with high bids under $20. It’s a fun search if nothing else.

Our innaugural Ebay Item Of The Week is quite similar, and fantastic:

This 2011 Topps Tier One Top Shelf Ty Cobb Dual Game Used Bat Relic is numbered 55 of 99, and features a painted scene and framed Old English D from the Cobb era along with two slivers of his game used hit maker. As of press time the high bid sits at $10.50 after 7 bids. I expect that number to climb before the auction closes just before 11 PM Eastern on Tuesday 5/29.

J. Ellet Lambie writes the Hump Day Look See exploring fantasy baseball each Wednesday here at Full Spectrum Baseball. He also covers the Detroit Tigers for Motor City Bengals. Follow him on twitter @lembeck451

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The Hump Day Look See 5/23/12

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The Hump Day Look See 5/23/12

Posted on 22 May 2012 by J. Ellet Lambie

The Hump Day Look See is your weekly Wednesday foray into all things fantasy baseball. Sneaky stat lines, rapid risers, trends and tricks to help maximize your roster are all celebrated here. Equal parts analysis and common sense with a splash of humor, served fresh every Wednesday morning right here on Full Spectrum Baseball.

It’s quietly the year of the catcher in fantasy baseball. Among backstops with 100 or more at bats 5 are currently hitting over .300, while 13 have at least 5 home runs and a dozen have at least 20 RBI. Making matters more interesting ~ 3 of the top 4 catchers in the ESPN Player Ratings (and 6 of the top 15) were undrafted on average (260 ADP) in standard 5 x 5 roto leagues. Most interesting, 5 of the top 15 are available in over 50% of standard leagues (Lucroy, Arencibia, Saltalamacchia, Doumit, Ellis).

Detroit's Andy Dirks

The two most feared words in fantasy baseball may very well be disabled list. However, the DL can sometimes serve as a forgotten land from which to pluck future gold, provided you have the roster space. DL candidates create conundrums, with tough drops being made to ensure daily lineups can be filled with healthy options. Impatience is a weakness that may lead your opponents to cut bait on months of production due to a few weeks of unavailability. Make them pay for these mistakes. What do Michael Morse Morse, Yeonis Cespedes, Stephen Drew, Brett Gardner, Allen Craig and Jon Jay have in common? All should return within 2-4 weeks (it’s still May folks) and are available in more than 10% of ESPN standard leagues. Watch the wire, never know what you’ll find.

10 Most Added hitters by % (%owned) over the last 15 days in ESPN leagues

  1. Andy Dirks DET OF +36.9 (93.4)  : “The Neck” is on a tear, playing full time and hitting 2nd
  2. Raul Ibanez NYY OF +34.5 (94.8) :.881 OPS, Hitting lefty in a band box
  3. Elliot Johnson TB SS +30.6 (31.2) : 17 hits in May, but only 3 XBH
  4. Dayan Viciedo +30.1 (30.4) :  DAYAN SMASH!!!!
  5. Ian Desmond WAS SS +29.8 (94.0):  T-3rd in HR (7) 6th in RBI (20) among all SS
  6. Justin Morneau MIN 1B +28.4 (58.2) : Hot off the DL, but for how long?
  7. Yonder Alonso SD OF, 1B +27.1 (43.4) Emerging, multi-position eligible, and available in 56.6 % of leagues
  8. Jonathon Lucroy MIL C +26.3 (44.0) 17 RBI in 15 games should get your attention
  9. Alfonso Soriano CHC OF +25.2 (53.8) Playing on bad knees, occasional power outburst potential
  10. Kyle Seager SEA 3B +23.3 (77.3) More RBI than K’s, 17 XBH this season

10 Most Dropped

  1. Jon Jay STL OF (DL) -53.5 (38.1): Struck down by injury at the worst possible time
  2. Lance Berkman STL 1B, OF  (DL) -28.7 (71.3): Gone for 6-8 weeks, minimum
  3. Allen Craig STL OF (DL) -23.9 (63.6): God hates the Cardinals
  4. Torii Hunter LAA OF -20.7 (75.0): Family issues keeping him away from the Halo’s, your lineup
  5. Pedro Alvarez PIT 3B -19.4 (17.7): 26 hits, .695 OPS, 50 K’s in 127 AB Through Tuesday ….Gross
  6. Chris Davis BAL 1B, 3B -16.8 (49.3): You say Chris Davis, I say Chris Shelton
  7. Adam Lind -14.3 (34.8): Being awful to the point of outright waivers will do that
  8. Gerrardo Perra ARI OF – 14.1 (24.9): Return of Chris Young = playing time vanishing act
  9. Mark Ellis LAD 2B – 14 (8.4): Almost lost his leg, generally not good for a players fantasy value
  10. Todd Helton COL 1B -13.7 (25.0): 12th among all 1B in RBI, but hitting .212 and 38 years old

5 under 50

Five players owned in less than 50% of ESPN standard leagues that can help your team right now.

  1. J.P. Arencibia TOR C 44.2%: His 26 RBI and 18 Runs scored rank 4th and 8th respectively among all catchers. His 7 HR have him tied for 2nd. His Tim Kirkjian doppleganger ability provides no fantasy value, but is good for morale.
  2. Alcides Escobar KC SS 43.3%: You could fill your SS, 2B/SS, IF or UT spots with much worse than a .301 average, 7 steals, 44 hits and 16 runs scored. Chances are you might be already.
  3. Daniel Nava BOS OF 19.4%: A healthy Red Sox outfielder is worth his wait in gold these days. Nava has posted a .343 average with 8 runs and 10 RBI over his last 15 games.
  4. Joe Blanton PHI SP 22.3%: 34 K’s against 6 BB in his last 40 innings pitched have helped him win 3 games in the last month, with a 3.57 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in that span. He’s a solid streaming candidate at worst.
  5. Anthony Bass SD SP, RP 18.2%: Not exactly piling up the wins (2 on the season), but his peripheral numbers are spectacular for a guy available in 4 out of 5 leagues who twirls home starts at PETCO. 51 K’s in 53 IP with a 2.89 ERA should compare quite nicely with his more exalted compatriots.

Your questions and thoughts are welcomed, and encouraged, both here in the comments and on twitter @lembeck451. All stats accurate as of 10 PM EDT 5/22/12. 

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