Over the past few weeks, I’ve done a weekly Sabermtric Mining piece attempting to provide utility for fantasy owners using more advanced statistics. But is it possible that when it comes to predicting in-season pitching performance that it’s one of the simplest “advanced” metrics that you should be using?

For my first Sabermetric Mining piece, I had looked at FIP, xFIP, and SIERA as ERA predictors, highlighting SIERA as the favourite but identifying the benefits of each. Earlier this week, though, Glenn DuPaul of The Hardball Times put the estimators to the test in terms of their ability to predict in-season performance.

His conclusion?

At the same time, I think these results should be taken as both a lesson and a cautionary tale. The ERA estimators that were tested (xFIP, FIP, SIERA and tERA) all did a better job of predicting future ERA than actual ERA; which was to be expected and is the normal assumption in the sabermetric community. But although they did better than ERA, simply subtracting walks from strikeouts did a better job of predicting ERAs for the second half than any of the advanced statistics.

In other words, for all the advancing ability of ERA estimators to predict future ERA, it is still this simple formula that does the best as it pertains to in-season ERA prediction:

(K-BB)/IP

Tom Tango of Inside The Book reflected on Glenn’s work, suggesting:

I also seem to remember that in terms of forecasting 2, 3, 4 years down the line that kwERA did better than anything else out there.  Basically, for all our sabermetric advances, simply relying on K and BB (differential, not ratio) is just about the best we’ve been able to come up with.

He also noted that (K-BB)/PA (plate appearances) is preferable to using innings pitched as a denominator, but that the results would be more or less the same. Further to that notion, he indicated he uses FIP and kwERA but not really xFIP. He goes into detail on why, but basically it’s because we know for certain what these two are measuring.

For the record, kwERA is an ERA estimator with K and BB as its sole inputs. I didn’t identify it in my original piece, but it is another tool you can utilize when it comes to predicting pitcher performance, and it seems it may be both the simplest and the easiest. Again, though, using (K-BB)/IP or (K-BB)/PA would tell you the same story, just not on an ERA scale (rather, it would be a ratio).

Pursuant to that, I found a 2011 post from Tango that summed up some research as follows:

Overall, we see that while the ratio may have some additional information for us, a simple and straight strikeout minus walk differential per PA is a great indicator of performance.

Not to over-link, but I thought Eno Sarris’ piece at Getting Blanked did a nice job summing up this week’s saber-community discussion on this topic:

If you make a simple sauce, it’s easy to evaluate the ingredients. The more complicated the sauce, the more likely you’re left wondering which input was the spoiled one. Everything we needed to know about pitching we learned in the kitchen, it seems.

Here, of course, K and BB are the simple ingredients he is referring to.

None of this is to say that FIP, xFIP, SIERA and others don’t have a place or value, because they definitely do, especially for offseason analysis. Anything that improves your understanding of the components of pitcher success has value, this new research simply reinforces that scanning the xFIP leaderboard is not sufficient.

In addition, further research could be done on how the components of strikeouts and walks, for example swinging strike percentage or first pitch strike percentage, do in predicting future ERA, perhaps letting us improve on K-BB metrics.

Beyond just this K-BB analysis, you can expand your research to include components of strikeouts, as I outlined in August, and perhaps look for pitchers due to improve or decline in the strikeout category, and thus, K-BB metrics.

Candidates
On the odd chance you’re still streaming pitchers to try and win a fantasy title at this point, the chart below shows pitchers available in more than 60% of Yahoo leagues and their ERA, FIP, (K-BB)/IP and (K-BB)/PA.

The higher the (K-BB)/PA, the better, obviously, as it indicates a greater ability to generate outs and a decreased propensity to allow free baserunners and thus scoring opportunities. Since those two things are the core components of ERA, it makes sense that a ratio that indicates increased outs and decreased runners (and therefore scoring opportunities) is a strong predictor of ERA. What’s even more appealing is that strikeouts and walks are generally considered the elements most within a pitcher’s control, so there are less situational mitigating factors at play than with some other metrics.

It will certainly be an interesting offseason in the statistical community, as I’m sure Glenn’s findings will encourage further research on ERA estimators, their efficacy, and how the components of K and BB work to predict ERA as well.

Follow me on Twitter @BlakeMurphyODC.

When it comes to prospects, timelines change all the time. Injury, exceptional performance, poor performance, or the needs of the parent club can all slow or expedite a prospect’s path to the Major Leagues.

In an attempt to give fans and fantasy players a gauge of when to expect prospects in the Majors, Baseball America attached an ETA (Estimated Time of Arrival) with their write-ups for this year’s Top 100 Prospects list. Today, Down On The Farm looks at those players ranked inside the top 50 at the beginning of the year who had an ETA of 2013. I chose 2013 because this group is essentially players who were expected to be adding the final seasoning to their repertoires or profiles.

Players with a 2012 ETA are either no longer prospects, having reached the Majors, or probably have a well-publicized reason for not making it yet, whether it be injury or performance. For your reference, the players Baseball America listed as Top 50 prospects with a 2012 ETA who have not had significant time in the Major Leagues this year are: Julio Teheran (struggles), Trevor Bauer (organizational decision), Danny Hultzen (struggles, ETA too aggressive), Mike Montgomery (struggles), Manny Banuelos (lack of team need), Brad Peacock (struggles), and Arodys Vizcaino (injury). Players with a 2014 ETA were not expected to be on our radar quite yet, so if their projection is now 2013, they are likely a special case, and we’ll highlight them in the future. That is all to say…I couldn’t update on everyone, and those with a 2013 ETA seemed the most logical.

Top 50 Prospects, Pre-Season 2012, 2013 MLB ETA
Per Baseball America rankings.

#7. Jurickson Profar – The Rangers shortstop prospect is still just 19 but getting a taste of Major League life already as a September call-up. Profar’s glove profiles as extraordinary, and his bat held up at Double-A with a 129 wRC+ (.281/.368/.452 AVG/OBP/SLG triple-slash line). Profar has some power and will steal bases in the Majors, making him a potentially hot commodity in 2013 drafts due to positional scarcity. While he hasn’t played at Triple-A yet, the Rangers will likely try to make room for him next year, potentially moving Elvis Andrus and/or Ian Kinsler to new positions.

#8. Shelby Miller – The Cardinals’ top pitching prospect is getting a September taste of the Majors out of the bullpen even though his 2012 was not as successful as the Cardinals had hoped. His 4.74 ERA and 4.48 FIP were disappointing, but he still grades out well in the “stuff” department, striking out 10.54 per 9. The Cardinals have their entire rotation locked up beyond this year, so Miller will probably be forced to compete for a spot in the spring.

#10. Dylan Bundy – Bundy pitched at three different levels this year, dominating at each stop and closing with a 3.24 ERA and 3.86 FIP in three Double-A starts. If it were me, I’d probably send the 19-year old back for more seasoning next year, but the Orioles’ sudden rise to contender may make them more aggressive with his timeline. As I was editing this, in fact, news broke that Bundy will be joining the Orioles for the stretch run later today.

#11. Manny Machado – Machado got the nod in early August to help out the contending Orioles at the hot corner, and he hasn’t disappointed with a 95 wRC+ and solid defense thus far. He was aggressively promoted right from Double-A, where he showed 20-20 potential, making him a potential 2013 draft target and a solid keeper option. He can probably stick at shortstop, too, and may be one of those valuable dual-position fantasy players while J.J. Hardy is still around.

#12. Gerrit Cole – Cole shot through the system this year, starting in High-A and finishing with a single start at Triple-A. He strikes out over a batter an inning and had FIPs around 3.00 at High-A and Double-A, making him a likely candidate for many prospect top-10 lists next year. His ETA is probably more in the mid-season range, though.

#17. Travis d’Arnaud – d’Arnaud had a solid season derailed by injuries, and the Blue Jays have J.P. Arencibia and a recently-extended Jeff Mathis in house to hold the fort down if d’Arnaud needs extra time at Triple-A next year. When he did play, though, d’Arnaud sure looked ready, with a 147 wRC+ showing that his .333/.380/.595 line was not just fuelled by the Las Vegas air.

#19. Anthony Rendon – The Nationals’ third base prospect is blocked by Ryan Zimmerman but it may not matter in the short-term since his first year in the minors was cut short by an early ankle injury. As it is, Rendon played just 43 games across four levels, finishing up in Double-A where he was a slightly below-average bat. Rendon will almost certainly be back in Double-A to start the season but will probably be among the first call-ups should the Nationals run into injuries.

#28. Wil Myers – I believe my love and excitement for Myers has been well publicized at this point, and I don’t see how the Royals could justify him not being on the 2013 Opening Day roster. Jeff Francoeur, Alex Gordon, Lorenzo Cain, and Billy Butler are holding down the OF and DH spots, but I don’t see a way Myers doesn’t force one of them to the bench or the trade block come March.

#31. Martin Perez – Perez has a brief stint with the Rangers in the summer and is now back working out of the bullpen down the stretch. The 21-year old lefty hasn’t missed many bats in Texas (5.52 K/9), a fact that isn’t surprising given his downward trending K-rates in the Minors (bottoming at 4.89 K/9 in Triple-A this year). I know some are still high on Perez, but if he can’t miss bats at a greater rate he won’t be ownable for fantasy purposes.

#34. Jonathan Singleton – Singleton is not really blocked in Houston given Brett Wallace’s relative lack of pop for a first baseman, but he didn’t get pushed past Double-A despite a pretty successful Minor League season. The Astros may be taking it slow with the 21-year old and waiting for his power to further develop before tapping him for a call-up.

#35. Zack Wheeler – The news that the Mets will now be affiliated with Las Vegas at the Triple-A level is bad news for Wheeler, as he’ll now essentially need to break camp with the Mets or head to a pitcher’s graveyard. Wheeler had great success at Double-A and performed well in a 6-start stint at Triple-A, so making the Opening Day roster is certainly not out of the question, though fantasy owners would want to express caution at first.

#38. Gary Brown – Brown was merely league-average at Double-A this year, but he’ll likely be challenged with Triple-A at age 24 next season. I can’t see Brown making the club out of Spring given that his only Major League-ready tool is his speed right now, but he could be in line for a call-up if he starts off hot, especially if the Giants don’t improve their outfield in the offseason.

#39. Anthony Gose – Gose was forced into action with Toronto well ahead of schedule but despite struggling so far, he seems relatively assured an Opening Day spot unless the Jays make an addition in left. Gose is ownable right away for the speed, but he’ll probably bat ninth and he’s only ever had a strong average at Triple-A Las Vegas, so tread carefully.

#41. Christian Yelich – Yelich’s timeline is definitely not 2013 anymore, if it ever was. He spent the year at High-A and outclassed the league with a 164 wRC+, but the fact that he didn’t get a Double-A promotion means it’d be far too big a jump to expect him to have an impact next year.

#42. Nolan Arenado – Many were calling for Arenado’s promotion early in the year but his Double-A performance hasn’t really warranted it. He’s been a shade above average with a 109 wRC+ but hit just 12 home runs and adds little on the bases. With the Coors Field effect he could be rosterable for fantasy, but there’s no reason for the Rockies to think he’s a better 2013 option than Chris Nelson or Jordan Pacheco.

#43. Mike Olt – Olt has struggled to an atrocious 14 wRC+ over 39 at bats with the Rangers, but this is obviously far too small a sample in which to judge him. Instead, expectations for 2013 should be tempered but his long-term outlook should stay the same. A half-season or more at Triple-A could be beneficial given that he jumped from Double-A to Texas, albeit after a dominant 95 games (28 HR, 170 wRC+).

#44. Hak-Ju Lee – Lee got his first full-season crack at Double-A and was league-average with the stick, chipping in 37 stolen bases as well. He also improved in the second half and maintained his reputation as a stud defender, so a strong start at Triple-A could put him on the radar for Tampa, where I’m sure Joe Maddon would find a way to get the most out of him.

#50. Jarred Cosart – Cosart followed the path this year, performing well enough at Double-A to get the promotion to Triple-A, where he looked great across six appearances. He’ll need to work on an out pitch to improve his strikeout rates, but there’s no reason to think he won’t join the Astros at some point in 2013.

Hopefully this article was able to update you on some players you were expecting to be fantasy-relevant in 2013. It should also serve as an early reminder to take ETAs from prospect sites with a grain of salt, as a whole lot can happen between March and September. Next week, I’ll take a look at prospects in general who could have a 2013 fantasy impact.

Follow me on Twitter @BlakeMurphyODC.

In last week’s Leverage Index piece, I discussed potentially using Leverage Index and its derivative stats (gmLI, inLI, pLI, and exLI) to identify potential future closers. It seems, based on responses from Gary in the comments and from Tom Tango himself that I failed to fully explain and made some incomplete assumptions. With that said, I thought it was deserving of an encore article explaining the stats and their potential use further, especially since at this point in the season there are not many Sabermetric Mining topics that could help you make a last-minute push for a title anyway.

It was great to get a response from Tango, who happens to be the man responsible for this beautiful creation, a series of charts showing the Leverage Index of every game, inning, score, and baserunner situation imaginable. I referenced this chart in response to Gary’s question about how LI evaluates leverage, so allow me to explain in greater detail now.

Review Of Leverage Index
Leverage Index is an index of how important a game situation is. Based on the game situation (inning, score, outs, etc), it assigns a grade to how important the situation is when a pitcher pitches, across the totality of their appearances. The higher the Leverage Index, the more the game is “on the line,” when that pitcher is on the mound. A pLI of 1 is a neutral situation, while roughly 10% of situations have an LI of more than 2 and 60% have an LI of less than 1, per Fangraphs.

How Leverage Index Is Calculated
Leverage Index takes into account the inning, score, number of outs, and baserunners to give a score to each and every baseball situation.

Inning – The later in the game, the more leveraged the situation in general, especially in close games. This makes intuitive sense, as the bottom of the 9th is essentially the “last” opportunity (ignoring extra innings) for the outcome of the game to change, whereas in the 8th inning a team that fails to score still has the 9th inning to give it another shot. In blow outs, the leverage actually decreases as the game gets later, since a comeback is less likely for the trailing team. As an example, a tie game with nobody out and the bases empty has a Leverage Index of 1.2 in the bottom of the 5th but a Leverage Index of 2.3 in the bottom of the 9th.

Outs – The logic here is the same as with the inning, as an out essentially advances the “inning” situation by a fractional inning. However, it also decreases the chances of any runs being scored in that inning, since the batting team has fewer opportunities to score a runner who reaches base. Therefore, the overall impact of an out on Leverage Index is multifactorial and can’t just be assumed. As an example, a tie game in the bottom of the 4th with the bases empty has a Leverage Index of 1.1 with nobody out and a Leverage Index of 0.5 with two out. However, a tie game in the bottom of the 4th with runners on the corners has a Leverage Index of 1.6 with nobody out and a Leverage Index of 2.1 with 1 out.

Score – Again following logic and intuition, a closer game has higher leveraged situations than a blow-out. Since Leverage Index measures situational importance, a 1-run game is more leveraged than a 5-run game, since any single at bat could have a large impact on the expected outcome. As an example, a 1-run game in favor of the away team with the bases empty and nobody out in the top of the 7th has a Leverage Index of 1.7, but if that team’s lead were instead 3 runs, the Leverage Index would be just 1.0.

Baserunners – Obviously, baserunners increase the leverage of a situation by increasing the potential for runs to score. As an extreme example, a tie game in the bottom of the 9th with nobody on and two outs has a Leverage Index of 1.5, but if a runner reaches first it increases to 2.4, and if that runner instead had reached third it would balloon to 4.7.

Leverage Index and Relievers
Tango’s main concern with my original article was the assumptions I made with Leverage Index and relievers, as well as the way I described how to use the four different measures for reliever analysis. His piece said the following:

If a reliever enters a game with an LI of 2.00, but his PA-by-PA LI for the game is 2.50, it usually means that he got himself into more jams. It could ALSO mean that he came into a high LI situation in the 8th, then his team made it an even closer game when they came to bat so that when he re-enters the game in the 9th, he was faced with a very high LI scenario. Which is why inLI helps (LI when he enters each inning). If he exits with a low LI it could mean that he put out the fire, or it could be that the fire burned down the whole house that there was no leverage left.

To paraphrase, I incorrectly suggested that you could assume things about a pitcher’s performance based on his gmLI versus his exLI, or just his pLI overall. It’s far more useful and relevant to look at a pitcher’s game by game performance, though this can be tedious and time-consuming. Instead, we can still use Leverage Index in reliever analysis, but we have to utilize it in a slightly different manner than I suggested last week.

Manager Trust – I had outlined how Leverage Index stats could be an indicator of manager trust in a reliever, and I stand by that. With that said, we should not care about pLI (total Leverage Index), as poor performance can inflate this, as can a team’s batting performance. Instead, if we just look at gmLI, which is the average Leverage Index of the game when a reliever is first deployed, we can get a sense of how much the manager trusts a reliever in big situations. Your league leaders in gmLI tend to be closers because of the late-inning leverage increase mentioned earlier, but you also see set-up men like Vinnie Pestano and Antonio Bastardo among the leaders as well.

Win Probability Added (WPA)
As Tom mentioned in his response, Win Probability Added (as WPA, or WPA/LI to control for leverage) is a better method of analyzing reliever performance. Win Probability Added is the difference between a team’s Win Expectancy before and after a play. LI and WPA are closely related, as LI is a measure of the potential for change in Win Expectancy in a situation. That is, a higher LI indicates a greater potential for Win Expectancy to change.

Based on that relationship, there is more opportunity for Win Probability Added to be accumulated or lost in high leverage situations. We can thus use WPA to analyze the totality of contributions by a relief pitcher to a team’s win expectancy. This is a better measure of reliever success than the difference between gmLI and exLI (a method I had mentioned last week), as it accounts for pitchers increasing the leverage of a situation by getting into trouble and ignores the impact of his team’s hitting on LI.

As expected given that WPA values high-leverage success, we see a lot of closers among the league leaders. However, we again see Pestano, as well as a few other successful high-leverage relievers like Darren O’Day and Mike Adams, among others. One strong indicator that this method is better is that you see very few high ERAs when you sort by WPA, indicating that this is probably a better measure of actual performance.

We can also utilize WPA/LI, which is just WPA brought to a leverage-neutral context. I should note that it is not simply WPA divided by LI, but the sum of WPA divided by LI in each situation. This makes it difficult to calculate as a back-of-the-envelope calculation, but luckily Fangraphs provides it on its leaderboards. WPA/LI can be utilized to identify relievers who may be successful if given more high-leverage situations. After all, since a reliever doesn’t control when they enter the game, their total WPA is somewhat dependant on how they’re deployed.

Here we see many closers among the leaders, but we also see relievers who have had strong success but have not necessarily been given high-leverage situations to work with. An example is Darren Oliver of the Blue Jays, who has just a 1.70 WPA despite a 1.62 ERA, mostly because his pLI is just 1.32. Thus, it seems Oliver could be trusted in more leveraged situations to add more win probability to the team.

Utilizing LI and WPA Stats
Again referencing Tango’s responsorial piece, I want to emphasize that using any one of these statistics in isolation is ill-advised. While gmLI can tell you how leveraged the situations have been when a reliever has been deployed, which may be a proxy for manager trust, it tells us nothing of his success in those situations. WPA alone can be effected by manager usage, while WPA/LI is not sufficient alone either as it doesn’t tell us much about usage patterns. Thus, we have to look at our entire menu of LI and WPA related stats when trying to identify high-performing relievers and potential future closers.

I realize it might be frustrating to fantasy owners looking to Sabermetric Mining for fantasy tools, to have read back-to-back pieces that essentially summate to “you have to look at a lot of stats and contextualize,” but that’s the nature of the saves chase and reliever performance. As Gary had pointed out in the comments, too, it is sometimes as simple as going off of what managers say, whether or not we trust their word or agree with their choice. Even still, these stats provide us with a means of evaluating relievers and let us speculate on manager trust and potential future closers, while also letting us appreciate reliever performance outside of the fantasy context (Vinnie Pestano!).

Predictive Ability
At Tom’s suggestion, I pulled 2011 LI and WPA stats and compared them to save totals from this year. If there is predictive ability in leverage stats and win probability stats when it comes to the save chase, we should see some of 2011′s top non-closers in LI and WPA get save opportunities in 2012. While a regression analysis showed that the most predictive of the stats (WPA alone) only accounted for 17% of the variance in 2012 saves, regression is a somewhat flawed tools since save opportunities are finite. Instead, we’re more interested in individual closers who earned jobs in 2012. The chart below shows relievers who had less than 10 saves in 2011 but more than 10 saves in 2012, as well as their LI and WPA stats (heat-scaled for all relievers to give context to each mark, with darker green being a higher rank). Here we see that while not all relievers with strong LI and/or WPA got saves in 2012, most who did get saves previously had strong WPA and/or LI numbers. Casilla (injury-related), Frieri (unexpected improvement), and Cishek (Ozzie Guillen bullpen nightmares) are the exceptions, but with reason.

Buy/Sell Candidates
Because I want to provide some sort of fantasy utility here anyway, at least for those in dynasty formats looking for potential 2013 closer candidates, I have provided the chart below. I have shown the top few in WPA and WPA/LI while highlighting current non-closers that show the potential to close, while also providing the laggards in WPA and WPA/LI, highlighting current closers who seem to have floundered in the role.

Follow me @BlakeMurphyODC.

Last week’s Down on The Farm began what was to be a multi-part series on the Arizona Fall League rosters. After it was brought to my attention just how much AFL-related content had already been produced, I decided it would be best to switch gears. So rather than looking forward to October and November, this week Down On The Farm will go in the opposite direction and look back at the year that was 2012 in Minor League Baseball.

My primary interest in looking through the leaderboards at Triple-A and Double-A was, of course, prospects on the rise. But when doing some digging and trying to interpret Minor League numbers within the scope of future Major League impact, I found myself doing a lot of Major League Equivalency conversions.

For some background, the statistically-inclined have been trying for years to effectively translate Minor League statistics into “Major League Equivalents,” that is, a translation of what a player with numbers X-Y-Z would have looked like at the Major League level. To quote Dan Szymborski from a Baseball Think Factory piece, “One thing to remember is that MLEs are not a prediction of what the player will do, just a translation of what the major league equivalence of what the player actually did is. This is useful for predictions however, because like, major league statistics, MLEs have strong predictive value.” Thus, for the purposes of identifying 2013 fantasy assets, or simply keeping our expectations in check, MLEs can have value.

While there is no standard, widely-accepted MLE calculator, most of the ones available will give you roughly the same outcome. I chose to use this one because I found it easy to use and straight forward. There are more available, I believe, beyond paywalls, but this one is free (though it stopped being updated recently – not a large concern since changes over a small amount of time would not significantly alter our results). Basically, what follows is a look at some of the Minor League leaders at varying levels, with a focus on the higher levels for 2013 fantasy impact, and how their Minor League numbers stack up in terms of potential Major League production. Just a small note that I used context-neutral “Major League Team” as a means of comparing apples to apples for this exercise.

AAA – Pacific Coast League
Long known as a hitter’s haven, the PCL is home to many parks pitcher’s dread. As such, it tends to be the long-term home of many Quad-A players. Still, even with the inflated numbers we see some strong performances.

Adam Eaton – The 2012 PCL Rookie of the Year and Most Valuable Player was absolutely Trout-ian at AAA Reno (without the homers), earning himself a September audition with the Diamondbacks. His .381/.456/.539 triple-slash line equates to a .318/.368/.440 MLE, while his 38 SBs and 119 runs convert to 31 and 89, respectively. Eaton is just 23 and could get a shot, at least as a 4th outfielder, in 2013.

Alex Castellanos – A part of the 2011 Rafael Furcal trade, Castellanos led the PCL with a 1.010 OPS while also chipping in 17 HR and 16 SB, making him and enticing prospect for fantasy owners. Unfortunately, his line translates to just a .250/.316/.435 mark, though MLEs see him as a potential 20-20 man if given full playing time. Castellanos earned a September call-up from the Dodgers, his third stint in the Majors this year.

Mike Hessman – Your 2012 PCL home-run champion is the 34-year old Astros minor leaguer, the proud owner of 35 HR…and a .231 AVG, .301 OBP, and 136 K. The profile says Quad-A all the way and MLEs agree, pegging him to hit below the Mendoza line and strikeout in 33% of his at bats, albeit with 26 bombs.

Jedd Gyorko – The Padres’ third-base prospect got the bump to AAA-Tucson early in the season and cruised to an impressive .968 OPS. At just 23-years old, Gyorko is headed for the Majors in the near future, especially if Chase Headley is moved in the offseason. MLEs like him to perform at a .272/.318/.463 level with 20+ home-run power now, and that’s not taking into account his development curve as a young player.

PCL/TEX Experiment – Wil Myers
Wil Myers – Myers gets a category of his own, having dominated at two levels this year. Plugging in his numbers separately for each league (combined he hit 37 homers with a .987 OPS), the MLEs spit out a .260 AVG with 27 homers and 80 RBI. Once again, these calculations don’t take into account the fact that Myers, at just 21-years old, is still very early on his development curve.

AAA – International League
So how does the International League, a notoriously friendlier league for pitchers, hold up in comparison to the PCL when it comes to MLEs for its top players? Let’s start with their MVP.

Mauro Gomez – At 28, Gomez is beyond prospect status and probably won’t crack the Red Sox as much more than a bench bat in 2013. With that said, his .960 OPS and 24 HR earned him an August call up, so at least he’s on the right track. MLEs think he could stick as a bench bat or lower-tier first baseman as well, projecting him for a .266/.314/.491 slash line and 19 homers in just 400 at bats.

Dan Johnson – The former Rays’ hero lead the IL in homers with 28, earning him a shot with the White Sox down the stretch. MLEs see Johnson’s power and keen eye (94 BB to 94 K in 476 AB) and think they could carry over (22 HR, 74BB). Unfortunately, they don’t see much else, pegging him for just a .221 AVG and a .715 OPS, below replacement level for a first baseman.

Matt LaPorta – The bane of fantasy writers everywhere, LaPorta has once again enticed with his Minor League numbers. Believe it or not, he’s now 27, so the clock is ticking. Unfortunately, his .822 OPS and 19 homers don’t translate, showing a .234/.298/.403 equivalency. Out of curiosity, I looked up his MLEs from after his first season in AAA-Columbus, back in 2009 if you can believe it, and let’s just say they were a lot higher on him then (.772 OPS, but at that time he was just 24).

AA – Eastern League
Darin Ruf – The 2012 Eastern League MVP and ROY is a bit old for the level at 26, a former 20th round pick and likely 1B/DH eventually. Still, an MVP deserves some attention, and his 38 HR and 1.028 OPS are cause for a double-take. The MLEs see him as a .258/.320/.476, 27HR player right now, though given his age and player type that might be his eventual upside.

Gary Brown – I chose Brown, the 23-year old CF prospect for the Giants, out of curiosity for how MLEs would treat his 33SB and 18CS (he also had a .279/.347/.385 slash line). They weren’t kind, showing an equivalent of 26 SB and 20 CS, marks that would give him a permanent red light (and also an awful .575 OPS). In all likelihood, ESPN’s 68th ranked prospect will repeat Double-A for at least part of 2013.

AA – Southern League
Hunter Morris – Sticking with our MVP analysis, I took a look at the MLEs for 23-year old Brewers first base prospect and 2012 Southern League MVP Hunter Morris. With a .920 OPS, 28 HR, and 113 RBI (though with a 40:117 BB:K ratio), the MLEs see Morris as needing more seasoning, pegging him for a .454 SLG and 21 HR but just a .295 OBP.

Matt Davidson – Davidson was ESPN’s #82 prospect before the season, and his success at AA at just age 21 is somewhat encouraging. With the caveat once again that MLEs are backwards-looking and not predictive using a development curve, MLEs like Davidson’s .836 OPS and 23HR to translate to a .215/.287/.367 line and 17HR right now. While that’s not enticing on the surface, it’s not a bad sign for the 2009 1st round selection.

AA – Texas League
Oscar Taveras – Rounding out our MVPs is 20-year old Cardinals’ OF prospect Taveras, owner of a batting title and Texas League MVP. His .321/.380/.572 slash line came with 23HR and 10SB, and MLEs think he could almost be an adequate regular already with a .254/.295/.425 slash line with 16HR and 8SB. It seems likely Taveras will play at AAA next year, but his double-digit potential in HR and SB, along with improving contact skills, make him an intriguing dynasty league watch.

Mike Olt – The Ranger’s heavy hitting third base prospect got the call to The Show in early August, stunting his AA numbers a bit, and disappointing those expecting instant MLB production. Had fans looked to MLEs, they would have known his .288/.398/.579 slash line equates to just a .224/.303/.421 Major League line. That’s nothing to scoff at, especially for a 24-year old, but it doesn’t scream savior.

Major League Equivalent stats aren’t perfect, and the fact that we have to wait until the offseason for projection systems to merge them with development curves to give us a predictive tool can be frustrating. Even still, MLE converters allow us to put the numbers of prospects, Quad-A mashers, and potential call-ups into the proper frame of reference, and can also aid as a fantasy tool by providing a check and balance for overzealous prospect hoarders.

Follow me on Twitter @BlakeMurphyODC.

With the baseball regular season winding down, fantasy owners have very little time left to make appreciable gains in the standings. With rosters expanded, out-of-contention teams experimenting, and injuries shutting players down early, September baseball does not always resemble what we see from April through August. Thus, it can be difficult, albeit valuable, to mine for advantages this late in the fantasy season, especially with most trade deadlines having long since passed.

With that in mind, today’s Sabermetric Mining piece will look toward next season a bit more than usual, although there are still practical rest-of-season implications for save chasers. Today, we will examine pLI, or Leverage Index, a statistic that can be used to identify how relief pitchers are deployed and hopefully give us insight into their future saves potential.

The Stat
pLI – Leverage Index is an index of how important a game situation is. Based on the game situation (inning, score, outs, etc), it assigns a grade to how important the situation is when a pitcher pitches, across the totality of their appearances. The higher the Leverage Index, the more the game is “on the line,” when that pitcher is on the mound. A pLI of 1 is a neutral situation, while roughly 10% of situations have an LI of 2 and 60% have an LI of less than 1, per Fangraphs.

inLI – This is Leverage Index broken down to more specific situations, in this case only the LI when a pitcher starts an inning. This is generally a good indicator for closer usage, since few managers will still deploy their closer at any time except the start of a new inning.

gmLI – This is Leverage Index broken down to just when a pitcher enters a game, and thus more often includes runners on base. This is generally a good indicator for identifying relievers that managers trust a great deal as their “firefighters” so to speak, brought in to handle tough situations.

How To Use
Unfortunately with Leverage Index, we are doing an analysis that involves intuition, logic, and attempting to predict the actions of sometimes irrational managers. I won’t get on a tangent about managing to the save rule, but you will soon notice that if a closer is the best reliever on a team, they are sometimes deployed sub-optimally based on game situations.

With that said, we can use LI to attempt to predict future closers. The logic here is that if a manager trusts a reliever in high-leverage situations, they should, in theory, be in line for the closing gig should it open up. It can also help us to identify closers that appear to be closers in name only, those whom managers do not trust a great deal. These are closers that are likely to be replaced with a string of poor performances or with a manager change.

Again, we cannot take pLI as a clear ordering of the bullpen roles. Managers are a funny breed when it comes to bullpen usage, plus we can introduce unintended bias when using a catch-all like pLI due to the deployment of handedness specialists, ground ball specialists, and more, whereby a pitcher can be deployed for a particular skill rather than his overall effectiveness.

Given that we are taking pLI as only a rough indicator of bullpen hierarchy, it suffices as a general means of trying to predict future save opportunities. Our assumption will be that, for the most part, a high pLI or gmLI is indicative of a manager’s trust and thus, a manager’s likelihood of promoting that player to the closer’s role if the opportunity opens up.

Vinnie Pestano – Pestano has long been thought to be a potential closer-in-waiting thanks to strong success, a high strikeout rate, and great peripheral numbers. For the second year in a row, Pestano has a large pLI (1.80) indicating he pitches in situations that are 80% more influential than a neutral situation, on average. He has a gmLI of 1.82, further indicating that he usually enters the game in these high-leverage situations, rather than creating them due to poor performance. His exLI, which I did not explain but is the average LI when a pitcher exits the game, is 1.52, highlighting Pestano’s success in lowering the leverage of situations, on average from 1.82 to 1.52. Pestano is the ultimate firefighter and would make a great closer should Chris Perez stumble in the role.

Addison Reed – Reed is currently the closer, so this is not necessarily in the spirit of the analysis, but it is worth pointing out that Reed leads all relievers with a 1.99 gmLI and is second to Jonathan Broxton with a 2.09 pLI. Basically, Reed is being deployed more optimally than any other closer in baseball. His 4.28 ERA is inflated by some early-season struggles, and it’s clear from these numbers that he has the complete trust of manager Robin Ventura.

Josh Roenicke – There are multiple pitchers that fit this same narrative, but I chose Roenicke because as a prospect he was identified as a potential future closer. This year, Roenicke has a 2.67 ERA over 81 innings, which would lead some to tap him as the potential heir apparent behind Rafael Betancourt. Alas, beyond his 4.43 FIP we also see that Roenicke simply does not have the trust of his manager, checking in with a miniscule 0.67 pLI and a 0.64 gmLI. Even worse, his exLI is 0.89, meaning that he has increased the leverage of situations while pitching. While this could be skewed by things such as the Rockies catching up in games where they’re behind, it could also be indicative that he is getting into trouble, a narrative backed up by him being among the league leaders in Pulls, or times removed in the middle of an inning. Add it all up and the 2.67 ERA is a mirage, not backed up by peripheral pitching stats or his usage pattern.

Carlos Marmol – Marmol has been in and out of the closer role this season, but our leverage stats allow us to examine how he has been deployed overall. Basically, Marmol is our best example of a “closer in name only,” someone who is deployed based on the save rule but not used in important situations. Despite the 17 saves, Marmol is around the league median for reliever pLI with a mark of 1.28, while his gmLI is just 1.04, by far the lowest mark of anyone with at least 10 saves.

Candidates
Potential Buy Low – These pitchers have less than 10 saves on the season but have strong pLI, inLI, and gmLI marks. These are relievers that are trusted a great deal by their managers and may see closing opportunities down the stretch, or, for those of you in keeper leagues, next season.

Potential Sell High – You probably can’t sell off closers in most leagues at this point, but for those of you in keeper formats, these are pitchers with 10 or more saves but poor pLI, inLI, and gmLI marks, indicating they have yet to earn the full trust of their managers.

The saves chase is a difficult but necessary evil in most leagues. The axiom “don’t pay for saves” is a good one, but only if you can effectively identify those players who will be losing or acquiring closer gigs. Leverage Index stats are a good means of evaluating a manager’s trust in a pitcher, as well as a pitcher’s success relative to the game situation. Identifying pitchers deployed in high leverage situations can be a key asset for identifying future closers and thus, future sources of saves.

Follow me on Twitter @BlakeMurphyODC.
All stats courtesy of Fangraphs, for games through September 5.

With most minor leagues winding down to playoff time, September generally brings one of two big pieces of news for prospects – a September call-up to the Majors, or an assignment to the Arizona Fall League. Running through October and November, the AFL operates as a league of extra seasoning for top prospects, and is usually a haven for scouts and prospect junkies alike. With few time-relevant minor league updates to make throughout September, the focus of Down On The Farm, for the next few weeks at least, will shift  to the Arizona Fall League rosters.

An assignment to the roster is definitely a positive for a player, though many top prospects are not sent due to the scarcity of roster spots, innings limits, commitments to native countries, and more, so a non-assignment is certainly not an indictment on a player. The league has six teams, so for each of the next sixweeks I will look at the rosters for one team at a time, hoping to shed light on the prospects sent from various teams and what the assignment may mean for their development.

This week we start with the Mesa Solar Sox, the team affiliated with the Orioles, Cubs, Tigers, Astros, and Dodgers.

Mesa Solar Sox
Baltimore Orioles
Michael Belfiore, LHP, 23 – 2.71 ERA over two levels (A+ and AA) out of the bullpen, 78K in 66 IP. Extra work assignment.
Chris Petrini, LHP, 25 – 2.49 ERA over two levels (A+ and AA) out of the bullpen, 81K in 83 IP. Extra work assignment.
Clay Schrader, RHP, 22 – 1.86 ERA over two levels (A+ and AA) out of the bullpen, 68K and 51BB in 58 IP. Extra work assignment, control the likely focus.
Mike Wright, RHP, 22 – 4.06 ERA over two levels (A+ and AA) over 20 starts, 22BB in 108 IP, .279 OPP AVG. Likely working on developing an out pitch.
Brian Ward, C, 26 – .592 OPS at AA, 1 HR, 24:24 BB:K in 161 AB. Punishment, perhaps?
Jonathan Schoop, 3B, 20 (ESPN #56, BP #85, BA #82) – .710 OPS at AA, 14 HR, 50:103 BB:K in 485 AB. Extra work assignment to continue accelerated development for AAA assignment in 2013.
L.J. Hoes, OF, 21 – .759 OPS over two levels (AA and AAA), 5 HR, 20 SB, 12 CS, 65:75 BB:K in 513 AB. Possible mechanical assignment to improve ISO, potential 5th OF in 2013.

Chicago Cubs
Dae-Eun Rhee, RHP, 23 – 4.81 ERA over 26 starts at AA, 78K in 142 IP, .298 OPP AVG. Extra work assignment to accelerate slow development.
Kevin Rhoderick, RHP, 24 – 4.99 ERA out of the bullpen at AA, 53:47 K:BB in 57 IP. Extra work assignment, control the likely focus.
Zach Rosscup, LHP, 24 – 3.45 ERA over three levels (AA peak), 45K in 31 IP. Extra work assignment to recuperate time lost to injury.
Nicholas Struck, RHP, 22 – 3.18 ERA over 26 starts at AAA, 123K in 155 IP, .238 OPP AVG. Assignment a potential audition for 2013 rotation spot and to continue gradual workload increase to MLB level.
Tony Zych, RHP, 22 – 3.67 ERA over two levels (A+ and AA), 64K in 61 IP. Extra work assignment.
Javier Baez, SS, 19 (ESPN #95, BP #66, BA #61) – .888 OPS over two levels (A and A+), 16 HR, 24 SB, 14 BB in 293 AB. Struggled at A+, extra work assignment to continue development and recuperate time lost to injury.
Rubi Silva, OF, 23 – .727 OPS over two levels (A+ and AA), 15BB in 500 AB, 10SB, 18CS. Extra work assignment, likely focusing on plate discipline and baserunning.
Matthew Szczur, OF, 23 (BA #64) – .751 OPS over two levels (A and AA), 42SB, 14CS, 79:61 K:BB in 438 AB. Possible adjustments to improve ISO and contact ability.

Detroit Tigers
Tyler Clark, RHP, 23 – 1.62 ERA over two levels (A+ and AA) out of the bullpen, 66L in 50 IP. Extra work assignment.
Matt Hoffman, LHP, 23 – 3.69 ERA out of the bullpen at AAA, 32:16 K:BB in 46 IP. Extra work assignment, likely working on an out pitch for potential 2013 promotion.
Michael Morrison, RHP, 24 – 3.14 ERA out of the bullpen at AA, 72:40 K:BB in 63 IP. Extra work assignment, likely focusing on control.
Luke Putkonen, RHP, 26 – 4.92 ERA out of the bullpen at AAA in 56 IP, with a 6.52 ERA in 10 IP MLB audition. Potential audition for 2013 bullpen role.
James McCann, C, 22 – .589 OPS over two levels (A+ and AA), 18BB in 380 AB. Extra work assignment, likely focusing on plate discipline and contact ability.
Nick Castellanos, 3B/OF, 20 (ESPN #37, BP #71, BA #45) – Potential stud had 1.014 OPS at A+, struggled with .678 OPS at AA, striking out once per game. Assignment for further development of plate discipline and to further move to RF.
Aaron Westlake, 1B , 23 – .711 OPS at A over 465 AB. Extra work assignment to expedite development.

Houston Astros
Jared Cosart, RHP, 22 (ESPN #78, BP #48, BA #50) – 3.30 ERA over two levels (AA and AAA), 92:51 K:BB in 114 IP. Extra development time for potential 2013 rotation spot and to recuperate some time lost to injury.
Chia-Jen Lo, RHP, 26 – 0.90 ERA over two levels (A and A+), primarily out of the bullpen, 31:6 K:BB in 30 IP. Extra development time to recuperate time lost to injury.
Alex Sogard, LHP, 25 – 3.62 ERA over two levels (A+ and AA) out of the bullpen, 52K in 69 IP. Extra development time, likely working on out pitch.
Jiovanni Mier, SS, 22 – .805 OPS at A+, 34:39 K:BB in 171 AB. Extra development time to recuperate time lost to injury.
Jonathan Singleton, 1B, 20 (ESPN #46, BP #73, BA #34) – .893 OPS, 21HR, 7SB, 131:88 K:BB in 461 AB at AA. Extended development to prepare for AAA in 2013 with potential MLB call-up.
Bobby Borchering, OF, 21 – .756 OPS across three levels (AA peak), 24HR, 159K in 479 AB. Has profile of Quad-A hitter eventually, will likely work to improve contact, possibly at the expense of some power.
George Springer, OF, 22 (ESPN #60, BP #49, BA #59) – .955 OPS at A+, 22HR and 28SB in 433 AB, though struggled to .630 OPS in 22 AA games. Extra work to expedite development, could reach AAA in 2013.

Los Angeles Dodgers
Eric Eadington, LHP, 24 – 3.63 ERA over three levels (AA peak), 77K in 67 IP. Extra work assignment to build on successful season and continue expedited development.
Red Patterson, RHP, 25 – 3.07 ERA at AA out of the bullpen, 71K in 70m IP. Extra work assignment, preparing for AAA assignment in 2013.
Steven Rodriguez, LHP, 21 – 0.92 ERA over two levels (A+ and AA) out of the bullpen, 32K in 19 IP. Continuation of expedited development for 2012 draftee touted as Major League ready.
Andres Santiago, RHP, 22 – 3.69 ERA across two levels (A+ and AA), primarily starting, 122K in 112 IP. Extra work to increase season inning load as building block for 2013 at AAA.
Gorman Erickson, C, 24 – .673 OPS at AA, 56:44 K:BB in 274 AB.. Extra work to recuperate time lost to injury.
Rafael Ynoa, 2B, 25 – .715 OPS, 23SB at AA. Extra work to expedite what has been a slow development.
Joc Pederson, OF, 20 – .913 OPS, 18HR, 26SB, 14CS in 434 AB at A+. Great season to be put closer under the microscope, with a likely promotion to AA in 2013.
Yasiel Puig, OF, 21 – 1.076 over two levels (R and A+), 5HR, 8SB in just 82 AB. Extra work to further development, as he was just signed out of Cuba in late June.

I should reiterate that these assignments should be taken in the vain I tried to explain – for some, it is extra grooming for promotions, while for others it is simply extra work for the sake of extra work. The top prospects are the ones to keep an eye on, and hopefully over the next few weeks Down On The Farm can help to highlight who to focus on as you see the scouting reports and stat lines begin to trickle in.

Follow me on Twitter, @BlakeMurphyODC.

My apologies for no DOTF or Sabermetric Mining piece last week. I was driving from Kitchener, ON to Vancouver, BC and then settling in to a new place.

The Stats
FB% – Fly Ball Rate is the percentage of batted balls that a player hits in the air. When we analyzed hitter BABIP, FB% was thought to be a negative as fewer fly balls drop in for hits than ground balls or line drives. For power hitters, however, fly balls are of grave importance. After all, ground balls cannot clear the fence. FB% can help us to determine whether a player has the right batted ball profile to succeed in hitting home runs, but it is the rate at which those fly balls leave the park that is key.

HR/FB – this is the percentage of fly balls that clear the fence. HR/FB is the key item we will examine when trying to determine over- or under-performers, as HR/FB stabilizes at about 300 plate appearances. This means it can help to both identify lucky and unlucky players and players demonstrating a legitimate change in skill. It is important to compare a player’s HR/FB to his career norms, as we must judge if a drop in HR/FB is a blip or a trend, and vice versa. As a reference, an average HR/FB rate is about 10% in recent history. I should note that there is a lot more research done on pitcher HR/FB, if you are interested in further reading, as it is generally thought that a hitter has more control over his rate than a pitcher.

Hit Tracker – Thanks to the great Hit Tracker Online tool, we now have a resource for determining lucky homeruns. That is, a ball that clears Petco would likely clear any park, while a ball leaving Coors may not leave most stadiums. The key areas to view on this site are “No Doubts,” or balls that would cleared the fence by 20 vertical feet and 50 horizontal feet, “Just Enoughs,” or balls that cleared the fence by less than 10 vertical feet or just past the fence horizontally, and “Lucky Homers,” or balls that would not have been home runs on a neutral weather day. Obviously, Lucky and Just Enough homers are less indicative of a power skill than No Doubt homers or other, unclassified home runs somewhere between those end points. It is a lot to take in at once, but I highly recommend exploring the site as it has a ton of interesting information that extends beyond fantasy use.

Park Factors Affecting HR/FB
Park Factors should always be kept in mind, as HR/FB does not control for parks. Again referencing Petco and Coors as our polar examples, a HR/FB of 15% is far more impressive at spacious Petco than it is at the bandbox in Colorado. If you are interested in further and much more specific information on the topic, Jeffrey Gross of The Hardball Times tackled park factors extensively in June of 2011.

How To Use
It is difficult to just provide a link or a chart to help utilize these stats, as they do not all indicate over- or under-performance. The best means of approaching the analysis may be to scan the home run leaders for names that do not intuitively make sense or look out of place, both at the high and low end, and then use these tools to confirm or reject your initial thoughts. Additionally, using the Hit Tracker tool and subtracting “lucky” homers from totals, or simply looking for extreme performances at either end of the HR/FB spectrum, can provide a good starting place.

Edwin Encarnacion – Let’s begin with the league’s leader in FB% and one of the more surprising home run providers of the season, the hitter formerly known as E5. With a 49.7% FB%, you could employ hyperbole to say “he hits everything in the air” and you would hardly be wrong. Because his FB% is so large, even a modest HR/FB rate would lead to a large number of long balls, but Edwin also sports a 17.9% HR/FB rate, a near-elite rate. Edwin has 34 home runs, 8 more than his previous career high, and in less at bats (thus far) to boot. Looking at prior seasons, Edwin displayed an above-average HR/FB every year but 2007 and 2011, with an above-average 12.8% career mark. He also has a 45.2% career FB%. Add it all up, and Edwin has made a modest improvement to his HR/FB, increased his FB% to make the impact exponential, and received consistent playing time, making his home run surge only a moderate, and likely sustainable, surprise.

Billy Butler – People have been waiting for Butler to turn his 240lbs+ into home runs for some time now, and his previous career high of 21 bombs was nearly maddening. Butler had essentially been a monster who hits like a lead-off man. So what’s changed? In terms of batted ball profile, Butler has actually gone in the opposite direction of what you would expect given his homer surge, as his ground ball rate is at a stand-still and he’s traded fly balls for line drives. His home run total of 25 has been fueled entirely by a 22.5% HR/FB rate that is nearly double his previous career high. While Butler’s body type might lead one to expect an elite HR/FB rate, this kind of an extreme jump has to be cause for concern. I would expect Butler to slow down on the long-balls down the stretch, and his 2013 first half rate will be worth watching.

Asdrubal Cabrera – Cabrera was in the Butler/Encarnacion break-out class last year with 25 home runs, but he has fallen back to just 14 this year. When we consult his batted ball data, we see that he has hit slightly fewer fly balls (35.3% compared to 38.7%) and had a fewer percentage clear the fence (10.1% compared to 13.3%), neither of which is surprising given the magnitude of his 2011 breakout compared to his established norms to that point. Even still, we find that he might be over-performing in the category, as he is tied for second in baseball with 4 “lucky” home runs, while just 3 of his 14 have been of the “no doubt” variety. Last year, he came second in the league with 15 “just enough” home runs, indicating that he was getting lucky last year as well, which I’m sure many assumed. It seems likely Cabrera is not even an above-average power hitter, though at shortstop he obviously still holds fantasy value.

Ryan Ludwick – Ludwick technically does not have enough plate appearances to qualify for the leaderboards in FB% and HR/FB, but he sure has enough power to qualify as a leader in the counting stats. In just under 400 plate appearances, Ludwick has smashed 25 homers, a total he hasn’t touched since 2008 when he hit 37. So what happened to Ludwick between then and now, and how did he get back here? Well, Ludwick has always had good HR/FB rates, except last season, but this year he’s setting a career-high mark of 21.2%, a mark that would be top-15 in baseball if it qualified. Ludwick has always hit a lot of fly balls, and though his rate has declined to 43.1%, he’s still in the Edwin mold of ‘hit everything in the air and hope it flies.’ What is even more encouraging is that Ludwick leads the NL in “no doubt” shots with 9, and while he gets some benefit from playing in Great American Ballpark, 20 of his homers (80%) would have left at least half the parks in baseball.

Candidates
I should note here that the ‘candidates’ section this week might be more useful for those in keeper or dynasty leagues, as the month of September may not be a large enough sample to see appreciable correction for any of these players.

Potential Sell Highs and Buy Lows – Instead of identifying both separately like most weeks, this week I will instead show the home run leaders with their relevant statistics heat-mapped, as discussed. Some may have unsustainable HR/FB rates, be getting lucky on home runs, or be legitimate sluggers.

Home Runs are not always spread nice and evenly throughout the year, and power hitters tend to be streakier than contact hitters, it seems. Thus, we must be careful when looking at short-term blips in home run-related statistics, using all three of these tools together to identify the Edwin-like breakouts and the Asdrubal-like over-performers. While September may not be long enough to see full correction to the totals, those lucky enough to be in tight races will want to leverage any potential advantage available to them.

Come get to know me on Twitter @BlakeMurphyODC.
All stats courtesy of FanGraphs and Hit Tracker, for games through August 29.

Wil Myers hits the ball very far, very often. As one of the most complete minor league hitters in baseball, it is almost astonishing that he is yet to crack the line-up of the Royals. He is one of the most exciting, major-league ready talents still yet to accrue service time, a major boon for the system. However, the system’s top arms have either struggled or been hurt, and a farm system that was once the envy of the league now has some question marks. The consensus pre-season top-5 system of the Kansas City Royals is today’s focus on Down On The Farm.

My apologies for no DOTF or Sabermetric Mining piece last week. I was driving from Kitchener, ON to Vancouver, BC and then settling in to a new place.

Pre-Season Rank: #5 (ESPN), #5 (Baseball Prospectus), #2 (Baseball America)

The Top 5
1. Wil Myers
Overall Ranks: #13 (ESPN), #19 (BP), #28 (BA)
As mentioned, Myers hits the ball very far, very often. The converted catcher has played the outfield this year to try and preserve his body in the long run, and reports show him as a good corner outfielder with a strong arm, though he likely won’t continue to play center field for long. Still, it is the bat that has people buzzing, and with good reason – Myers has clubbed 35 homers across two levels in 128 games this year. He first astonished onlookers at Double-A Northwest Arkansas with 13 taters and a ridiculous .388 isolated power (ISO, slugging percentage minus batting average) in 35 games, earning a promotion to Triple-A Omaha at just 21. 93 games and 22 homers later, with an ISO of .247 and a wRC+ of 133. Myers should have earned a September call up with this performance, and at the very latest will probably start the season for the Royals next year, an enticing idea for Royals fans and fantasy owners alike.

2. Bubba Starling
Overall Ranks: #15 (ESPN), #27 (BP), #24 (BA)
The converted quarterback is all athleticism and tools at this point, but even just getting him to sign after the 2011 draft was a huge boon for the system. He is still just 20, but the fact that a late signing and an early injury pushed his career start date back to late June of this year, at Rookie Ball, is of some concern. Basically, Starling lost a full year of development right away. Luckily, it does not appear to have set him back too much, as he has posted a 144 wRC+ for Burlington. The 30.3% strikeout rate is a concern but not uncommon for young, inexperienced players, and his 12.3% walk rate indicates there is potential for plate discipline. Starling is a few years away from making a major league impact, but this type of ultra-high-upside player always reflects well on a team and system.

3. Cheslor Cuthbert
Overall Ranks: #43 (ESPN), #83 (BP), #84 (BA)
Along with having one of the oddest first names out there, the 19-year old third base prospect also has an enviable resume for his age and an advanced approach for his point on the development curve. With that said, the promotion this year to High-A Wilmington has been a challenge, seeing Cuthbert’s wRC+ fall to an ugly mark of 72. With just an .081 ISO and a sub-.300 OBP, the Royals are likely concerned at the performance dip compared to a successful 2011 at Low-A. Still, Cuthbert doesn’t strike out too much (15.7% K-rate, 19% last year), walks enough (7.0% walk rate, 10.5% last year), and may have just been advanced too quickly for the hit tool to catch up with the approach. Cuthbert will likely repeat at Wilmington for a part of next year, putting him off the major league radar for another two seasons at least.

4. Mike Montgomery
Overall Ranks: #52 (ESPN), #N/R (BP), #23 (BA)
Montgomery is an imposing 6’5” lefty who has been on the prospect map for several seasons now. Drafted back in 2008, Montgomery has had a slow climb through the Royals system, but is failing to find success at the Triple-A level for the second year in a row, this time as a 23-year old. Last season, Montgomery struggled to a 5.32 ERA and 4.30 FIP over 150 innings, and this year it has been more of the same with a 5.69 ERA and a 4.95 FIP over 91 frames. It got so bad that Montgomery was actually demoted to Double-A Northwest Arkansas in hopes of regaining some semblance of his command. Unfortunately, he is yet to find success there as well. There is obviously still time for a 23-year old lefty with two plus-pitches (fastball and changeup) to find the missing piece, likely a third reliable pitch, but the Royals have to be getting concerned that a former top prospect will need a third attempt at Triple-A next year.

5. Jake Odorizzi
Overall Ranks: #71 (ESPN), #47 (BP), #68 (BA)
Omaha has had one success on the mound, at least, with 22-year old righty Odorizzi posting a 3.08 ERA over 102 innings after earning the mid-season promotion from Double-A. While the surface ERA is fine, Odorizzi has not carried his impressive strikeout rate at Double-A (11.13 K/9) to Triple-A (7.21), causing his FIP to inflate to 4.21. Still, the team should be happy with his development, especially the fact that he uses four pitches reliably. One of those offerings needs to evolve into an out pitch to predict success at the major league level, but he could probably fill in at the back of a rotation right now. Look for him to crack the majors at some point in 2013, though he is unlikely to be fantasy relevant right away.

Additions and Subtractions
The Royals made just a single deal during the season, cashing in on their Jonathan Broxton gamble by acquiring a pair of players from Cincinnati in Donnie Joseph and J.C. Sulbaran. Sulbaran has struggled at Double-A since coming over and will likely have to repeat the level as a 23-year old next season, while Joseph is a LOOGY in training at Triple-A. The Royals grabbed righty Kyle Zimmer fifth overall in the draft this summer, and he’s an exciting prospect to watch next year, as he has already been moved to Low-A and had success through six starts.

Other Interesting Names By Level
Triple-A Omaha – Along with Montgomery and Odorizzi, Omaha is also home to 25-year old Ryan Verdugo, a lefty who has had success with a 3.37 ERA but was the recipient of six earned runs over 1.2 innings in his July major league debut. 24-year old Nate Adcock has struggled to a 4.86 ERA but held his own in a brief audition as a swing-man earlier in the year. Finally, 23-year old lefty Will Smith had a good half-season starting before earning a promotion, though he has struggled mightily for Kansas City. Beyond Myers, Johnny Giavotella is having success, though he has flopped in the majors twice now.

Double-A Northwest Arkansas – Yordano Ventura earned a promotion in mid-July but has struggled, though it was not unexpected for the 21-year old who relies primarily on his heater. For some reason, 24-year old lefty Chris Dwyer got promoted to Omaha despite a 5.25 ERA at this level, though sadly that made him one of the better candidates. Michael Mariot was converted to starting partway through the year and has had success with a 3.40 ERA over 113 innings, though he’s only struck out 81. Justin Marks, a 24-year old lefty, has posted a 3.80 ERA through 17 starts, making him the de facto ace of the staff. At the plate, Myers’ promotion left the cupboard pretty bare, so it is no real surprise that the Naturals are a shameful 19-43 in the second half. Shortstop Christian Colon posted a .364 OBP over 73 games, enough to get him promoted to Omaha, but he offers very little at the plate beyond the OBP.

High-A Wilmington – Wilmington has been the part-time home of several strong pitchers this year, including one with perhaps the best name in baseball. Jason Adam is 6-12 but has a 3.61 ERA and has shown great command with a 3.5:1 K:BB ratio. Sugar Ray Marimon posted a 2.12 ERA over 68 innings before earning the bump to Double-A, where he has posted a 3.97 ERA over 10 starts. Matt Ridings is too old for this level at 24, but has a tidy 2.26 ERA and less than two walks per nine. 23-year old Andy Ferguson has climbed the ladder quickly, with Wilmington being his third stop, and he has struck out 53 over 56 innings with a 3.34 ERA so far. Finally, Elisaul Pimentel got dropped from Double-A at mid-season, but has been strong since with nearly a strikeout per inning and an ERA of 3.00. A few hitters have performed well for the Blue Rocks, but most are too old for the level to get excited.

Low-A Kane County – A young trio of arms have led the way, with Edwin Carl (23-years old, 1.92 ERA, promoted to Wilmington), Angel Baez (21, 3.17 ERA, 83 K in 76 IP), and Kyle Smith (19, 3.00 ERA, 72 K in 57 IP) all impressing. None of the hitters have been amazing, with nary an 11-homer bat or a .300 average on the team, but just about everyone has been solid, helping the team to a .500 mark.

The Royals system has strong depth, especially on the mound, and it is scattered nicely across all levels. While there have not been many stand-out performers aside from Myers, he alone is reason to look favourably on the system. John Lamb, when recovered, adds another high-end arm to the mix, along with top pick Zimmer. The Royals can expect to be a top-10 system again next year, though with the shine coming off a few pitching prospects and a few players graduating to the majors, a top-5 system is not a certainty.

Come get to know me on Twitter @BlakeMurphyODC.

The Stat
SwStr% – Simply put, this stat is the percentage of pitches a pitcher throws that a batter swings at and misses. Mathematically, it is just “swings and misses” divided by “total pitches thrown,” and it acts as a good proxy for a pitcher’s dominance level. While pitchers can generate looking strikes as well, swing and miss pitches are a better indicator of dominant performance.

K% – this is the percentage of at bats that end in a strikeout, or, K%=K/AB. While it is not the statistic used in fantasy leagues (usually just strikeouts, or perhaps K/9), it is a good indicator of strikeout ability in batter-comparable terms.

K/9 – Strikeouts per nine innings, or K/9=K/(IP*9). This statistic can be more useful than strikeouts alone, especially in leagues that use innings limits, as it allows owners to identify pitchers who strikeout many or few batters, isolating for the amount of innings they pitch. For example, if you are nearing your innings limit, a pitcher with a 9.0 K/9 but with fewer anticipated innings the rest of the way may be more valuable to you than a pitcher with a 7.0 K/9 expected to have a heavy workload down the stretch.

As a rough estimate, a K% of 25% will lead to approximately a 10.0 K/9, while a 10% K% will lead to approximately a 4.5 K/9, with the points between trending together as you would expect.

How To Use
At the end of last season, Bradley Woodrum at Fangraphs looked at how Swinging Strike rate relates to K%, or the percentage of at bats that end in strikeouts. He found that, while the error terms vary quite a bit, strikout percentage and swinging strike percentage correlate pretty strongly (.6928 R^2 value, or, stated otherwise, swinging strike rate can explain about 69% of the variance in strikeout percentage). Woodrum’s regression allowed me to create the following chart, which can act as a rough approximation of the K% we should expect at given SwStr% levels.

Using this chart and standard leaderboards, we can try to identify pitchers who have a high SwStr% but a low K% or a low SwStr% but a high K%. Those with a high SwStr% and a low K% should be expected to strikeout a higher percentage of batters than they have so far, and vice versa.

Edwin Jackson – Jackson has an impressive 11.7% SwStr%, tied for the 6th best mark in the league, but boasts just a 19.3% K%. Our chart above indicates that an 11.7% SwStr% would be more in line with a 24% K%, which would greatly help Jackson improve on his 7.23 K/9 mark. In fact, based on SwStr% alone one would expect Edwin to strikeout about a batter an inning. While this might be high as an expectation moving forward, based on other factors in his profile that may impact strikeout proficiency, we can safely anticipate some measure of uptick in strikeouts for the remainder of the year.

Vance Worley – Worley has somehow managed to put up strikeout rates in line with Jackson despite causing far fewer batters to whiff. His 5.5% SwStr% would indicate an expected K% of about 13%, but Worley checks in at 18.8%. Either Worley has found a way to make batters only miss on third strikes, basically “saving up” his good stuff, or he has been a little lucky and probably won’t be striking out more than six batters per nine innings moving forward.

Gio Gonzalez – While nobody will argue Gonzalez’s dominance this season, his strikeout proficiency has been a but overstated based on his SwStr%. His SwStr% of 9.6% is more in line with a K% of 21% and a K/9 of 8.25 rather than his marks of 25.8% and 9.63. He is still an ace, but those relying on him for seven or eight strikeouts a start might be slightly disappointed down the stretch.

Candidates
I should note here that the ‘candidates’ section this week is a bit thin because I had to pick arbitrary endpoints. Really, you would want to download the leaderboards and create an “Expected K%” column and compare that to actual K%. These are just a few of the more extreme examples.

Potential Sell High – These pitchers have a SwStr% of less than 7% but a K% of greater than 15%, indicating a potential decline in strikeout rate forthcoming.

Potential Buy Low – These pitchers have a SwStr% of greater than 10% but a K% of less than 21%, indicating a potential increase in strikeout rate forthcoming.

Strikeouts can be a difficult statistic to predict as the season rolls along. Sometimes, the stats do not match what we see with our eyes, or curiosities defy logic like Aaron Cook not being able to generate a swinging strike if I was batting. While more goes into the art of the strikeout than just causing batters to whiff and any pitcher worth his salt can attest that there are a dozen factors that go into a strong SwStr%, SwStr% remains a strong metric for aiding fantasy owners in identifying potential value in the K category.

Come get to know me on Twitter @BlakeMurphyODC.

All stats courtesy of FanGraphs, for games through August 15.

Billy Hamilton could be the most fantasy newsworthy prospect in all of minor league baseball, but do the Cincinnati Reds have much else in the pipeline to support the major league squad? If I am giving full disclosure, Hamilton was the reason the Reds were selected as this week’s Down On The Farm topic. He might break the 20-80 scouting scale for speed and even if he has a Dee Gordon-like OBP, he will be fantasy relevant upon his arrival. Of course, he projects as a better hitter than Gordon, so consider that his ultimate downside. But beyond Hamilton, the system ranked in the middle of the pack in the preseason and graduated three of its better prospects, potentially leaving the cupboards barren.

Pre-Season Rank: #19 (ESPN), #18 (Baseball Prospectus), #16 (Baseball America)

The Top 5

1. Billy Hamilton
Overall Ranks: #64 (ESPN), #22 (BP), #48 (BA)
In retrospect, writing about Hamilton may have been a mistake. You see, I will file this piece on Tuesday night, but by Wednesday morning the stats I am about to provide will likely be obsolete. That’s because Hamilton seems to steal two or three bags a night these days, continuing his quest to break the all-time minor league stolen base record. That mark, set by Vince Coleman in a 1983 season where he missed a month due to a broken hand, is 145. Hamilton presently sits at 139 through 113 games, making it all but a certainty he will set the new standard for prolific minor league base stealing. Obviously for fantasy players, he will be a must-add when he arrives in the majors, possibly as soon as September as an expanded-roster pinch runner. He probably needs a season at Triple-A for final seasoning, but this is not your typical Juan Pierre style speedster, as Hamilton gets on base at a prolific rate as well. In fact, he walked 12.8% of the time in 82 A-ball games and has since walked 17.2% of the time in 31 Double-A games. He has also struck out less than 20% of the time at both levels, posted an OBP better than .400 at both levels, and had wRC+s of 148 and 154, respectively. As a 21-year old, Hamilton is too advanced for Double-A both at the plate and on the bases. Zack Cozart has been nice for the Reds, but the clock is ticking for him at short.

2. Devin Mesoraco
Overall Ranks: #8 (ESPN), #24 (BP), #16 (BA)
Mesoraco is the most prominent of the Reds prospects to graduate to the majors this year, something Reds fans were understandably excited about. Unfortunately, Mesoraco has struggled in his first full season, posting a .218/.297/.367 slash line, a wRC+ of just 71, and negative values in both fielding and baserunning. There is obvious upside for the 24-year old backstop, and catcher is a position with a steep learning curve, but he has yet to show enough to warrant surpassing incumbent Ryan Hannigan for the starter’s role. He was thought to have All-Star potential before the season and was a fantasy sleeper, so there may be a post-hype case to be made in 2013 if he can show some improvements down the stretch for the Reds.

3. Zack Cozart
Overall Ranks: #N/R (ESPN), #N/R (BP), #75 (BA)
The apparent incumbent at short until Hamilton is ready, Cozart has shown little with the stick for the Reds this year. Fortunately for the team, though, he has rated out as a plus defensively and on the bases, scrounging together a 1.9 WAR despite being a negative at the dish. Cozart rarely walks and has a curiously low BABIP for a high-contact speedster (.274), giving him a terrible .289 OBP. The 14.5% infield fly rate shows that he is making a lot of mistakes at the plate, and his pitch values basically indicate he can only hit a fastball. At age 27, there probably isn’t a tonne of untapped potential here, but there is always real-life value in defensively capable players with speed.

4. Daniel Corcino
Overall Ranks: #N/R (ESPN), #N/R (BP), #N/R (BA)
Corcino gets a lot of comparisons to current Red Johnny Cueto, primarily because of his diminutive size at 5’11”, 165lbs (Cueto is 5’10” but 220 lbs). Still, the slight stature has not held Corcino back from steadily moving through the Reds’ system, making the jump from Low-A to Double-A this year with acceptable results. His strikeout rate declined and his walk rate increased, leading his FIP to jump from 2.80 to 3.78, but at age 21 he could reasonably be expected to struggle at this level. Instead, Corcino has shown he can handle a full workload for the second straight season and is likely on the path to Triple-A Louisville for 2013. If he can refine his breaking pitches to go with a 95MPH fastball and a plus change-up, he should be able to get the K-rate back up around 9K/9IP, somewhere between his 2011 and 2012 levels. As with all small pitchers, the “likely reliever” tag has been given to Corcino, but that is a few seasons premature right now.

5. Robert Stephenson
Overall Ranks: #N/R (ESPN), #N/R (BP), #N/R (BA)
The Reds are challenging their 2011 1st round pick to move through the system quickly, already promoting the 19-year old to low-A ball. He did not really leave them much choice, I suppose, after seven dominant starts at the Rookie Ball level, where he had nearly 11K/9 and a 2.52 FIP. In his four starts since the promotion, he has struggled to go deep with just 4.5 IP/start, but he has also had success with a 3.37 FIP and 10K/9. As with a lot of high school arms, Stephenson has a big fastball but his secondary pitches are still under construction. The franchise could opt to push him all the way to High-A to start 2013, and success there would have to put him on the radar as a top prospect.

Additions and Subtractions
The Reds’ big move came in the offseason, sending out multiple high-end prospects for Mat Latos, a move you have to commend the Reds for making as they sit in first in the NL Central with Latos playing a big role. The Reds did not make waves at the draft and were not regarded as big winners or losers, making it difficult to assess in the short term. They also added two non-prospects in smaller deals, picking up reliever J.J. Hoover for Juan Francisco and starter Todd Redmond for Paul Janish. Both players have performed well for Triple-A Louisville, with Hoover now being a useful arm in the Reds’ bullpen.

Other Interesting Names By Level
Triple-A Louisville – Yet another shortstop, Didi Gregorious, was prematurely elevated to Triple-A to make way for Hamilton but has performed well since arriving with a .776 OPS. Unfortunately, slugging first base prospect Neftali Soto has not been as successful, posting a .719 OPS thanks to an awful .311 OBP. At age-23 and coming off a 30-homer season, Soto will have another chance at the level before any worry sets in. The pitching staff has been entirely unspectacular, with Redmond being the only real bright spot. After the promotions of Mesoraco, Hoover, Cozart, and Todd Frazier, the pipeline of major league talent is pretty thin at the top level.

Double-A Pensacola – What is a Blue Wahoo? Sorry, I have no idea. Luckily, though, a few of them are worth checking out, and Pensacola is the best stop for Reds’ prospects. Hamilton and Corcino have been discussed in detail, but 21-year old outfielder Ryan LaMarre has also impressed, stealing 27 bases and sporting a .367 OBP, albeit with little in the way of power. 22-year old lefty Anthony Cingrani has also been worth a watch, sporting a ridiculous 1.94 ERA since his promotion from Bakersfield. Cingrani is striking out over a batter per inning while allowing opponents just a .196 average off of him. Triple-A could be in the cards for next season, and he will likely be a top-100 prospect to start next year.

High-A Bakersfield – When Hamilton left, Theo Bowe apparently decided to take up his mantle, and the speedy 22-year old outfielder has stolen 45 bases in 77 games with a .412 OBP. Unfortunately, he has also been caught 24 times. Donald Lutz, a 23-year old first baseman, hit 17 home runs in 63 games and earned a promotion to Pensacola, where he has struggled a great deal. 23-year old outfielder Steve Selsty has homered 12 times in just 49 games for a 1.052 OPS, but at that age and level he needs to dominate to catch up to his peers. On the mound, 23-year old Chad Rogers earned a promotion after sporting a 3.13 ERA with a K:BB ratio better than 3:1, and he has had two great starts for Pensacola since. 25-year old Josh Smith has also been impressive with a 3.73 ERA and over a strikeout per inning, but he is far too old for this level and needs to show more dominance to get on the radar.

Low-A Dayton – 19-year old prospect Yorman Rodriguez had a trial at Bakersfield but now finds himself back in Dayton, where a .296 OBP is holding him back from utilizing his ample tools. 22-year old shortstop Ryan Wright just received a promotion of his own after posting a .767 OPS through 100 games for Dayton. 19-year old pitching prospect Robert Stephenson just received a bump from Rookie Ball and has performed well in three of his four starts since the promotion. The level also has a few other interesting arms, but none of them are exceptional or performing above expectations at this point.

Whether it is an organizational philosophy or just conincidence, the fact that most of the Reds’ top-performing minor leaguers are old for their level is a bit troubling. With that said, there is some depth to the system, and they have two high-end talents in Hamiltion and Cingrani. While they did not do anything to restock the system after the Latos deal, a win-now edict tends to leave you a bit thin in the prospect pipeline. The Reds will likely rank in the early-20s on next year’s lists, but with the added benefit of owning the most exciting prospect in all of minor league baseball.

Come get to know me on Twitter @BlakeMurphyODC.