Aubrey Huff has been playing left field recently for the San Francisco Giants.

With Aubrey Huff getting in extra playing time in the outfield, it looks like more and more of a possibility that Huff could log extended time in the outfield this season. The move from first base to left field would probably open up time for Brandon Belt at first. Belt is a tremendous prospect, with most projection systems positing that he’ll hit for at least .350 wOBA already, in his age-24 season. It wouldn’t be unreasonable for Belt to post 20 or more homers and a .350 OBP while playing good defense at first base. Keeping him out of the lineup last season was a travesty, and the Giants lineup is starved for a powerful run producer of Belt’s caliber.

Aubrey Huff, despite his mammoth 2010, is no longer the type of hitter Brandon Belt is. In full-time action last season, Huff managed only an 84 wRC+. To put that in perspective, Huff was about 16% worse than a league-average hitter. But not only that, Huff’s a bad fielder. In the outfield, Huff has never had any sustained success with the leather. Don’t get me wrong, Huff probably isn’t an epic disaster in the field a la Raul Ibanez, but he’s not good. To put things in perspective, last season when Huff played out there, someone drew a chalk outline in the outfield. But a player who doesn’t hit very well, and is going to be average at best in the field, probably shouldn’t be an everyday player. If it wasn’t for Huff’s sizable contract (and loyalty from the 2010 World Series run), it seems unlikely that he’d be a regular starter.

This moves poor Nate Schierholz back into a reserve role, as Melky Cabrera would move over to right field. Historically, Nate’s been an above-average fielder in right, and last season, Schierholz finally put together an above-average season with the bat as well. A triple slash line of .278/.326/.430 is nothing to sneeze at, though it won’t win any MVP awards. In truth, Schierholz is a better player than Huff at this stage in his career, so playing Huff over Schierholz in the outfield isn’t maximizing the team’s assets. However, instead of looking at things from that perspective, if Huff needs to be in the lineup, one could view this as replacing Schierholz with Belt. And Brandon Belt is far too good of a player to be resigned to the San Francisco bench.

Kendrys Morales will (probably) be the Opening Day DH for the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim.

After almost two years off the playing field, Kendrys Morales appears to be healthy and ready to play for the Angels. You might remember that Morales injured his ankle in a freak home-run-celebration accident back in 2010, and he’s been trying to get himself back on the field ever since. Most of the reports out of Spring Training indicate that Morales is ready to go, and he’s been seeing the ball well in Spring Training thus far, actually seeing game action yesterday. All things point to Morales opening camp with the big league club, and that’s good news, given that Kendrys has proven himself to be a solid hitter in his 1240 big league plate appearances. Morales has power, having hit 55 home runs in his limited big-league action, including 34 HR in a solid 2009 campaign. He’s substantially better than league average as a hitter, and sports a career wRC+ of 114, which puts him solidly above league-average.

Morales would be replacing Bobby Abreu as the everyday DH for the Angels. Abreu, who’s reportedly unhappy about losing out on everyday playing time, wasn’t particularly good in 2011. Though Abreu still draws a mean walk, he’s no longer a threat to hit for lots of power. Abreu still steals bases (21 in 2011), but is a net negative baserunner. And yes, he’s a horrible fielder. According to UZR, Abreu hasn’t been an above-average fielder since 2003, and he’s been downright awful in most seasons.

Abreu is in the twilight of his career, and Morales is still in the prime of his own. If Kendrys is ready to play, he’s an upgrade over every other option in house for the Angels. Whether it is Abreu, Mark Trumbo, Alberto Callaspo, or Maicer Izturis, Morales still remains the best DH option that the Angels have. As long as he’s healthy, he’s proven he can hit.

The New York Yankees sign SP Andy Pettitte to a $2.5MM minor-league deal.

Yeah, I’m not sure anyone saw this one coming. Fresh off the heels of adding two solid starters (Michael Pineda and Hiroki Kuroda) this off-season, the Yankees have gone ahead and added yet another starter. Surprisingly, Andy Pettitte has emerged from his retirement to pitch again for the Yankees, and one should imagine that the team wouldn’t ink Pettitte unless they planned to use him in the rotation. I’m sure the Bronx faithful are happy to see their old favorite back in the House That YES Built, and once he’s ready to pitch, he’ll slot right in for regular work every fifth day.

So why would the Yankees be in the market for another arm? Word on the street blogosphere is that the Yankees are worried about Michael Pineda‘s Spring Training velocity. If Pineda is ineffective, or needs additional work in the minor leagues, the Yankees will have a pretty serious hole in their rotation. But don’t the Bombers already have Freddy Garcia waiting to take the last slot in the rotation if that were the case? The truth of the matter is, you can never have too much starting pitching depth. Considering how many times pitchers get banged up and have to miss time, there’s no reason not to add another starter. And Pettitte wasn’t too shabby in his last go-round with the Yankees, posting a 3.28 ERA and a 3.85 FIP. Garcia should be able to slide into a relief or swingman role if he’s not already in one when Pettitte comes back. As for Pineda, if he’s healthy and there’s no space in the rotation for Pettitte, Phil Hughes could probably move into the relief role where he had such success.

In the end, there’s very little downside to this deal for a team like the Yankees. Two and a half million dollars for a player likely to be an average-or-better starter, even for part of a season, is a good deal. If the Yankees have too many starters, well, that’s a problem most teams would like to have. I’d bet the Red Sox wish they could get a player of Pettitte’s caliber at that price.

Kansas City Royals C Salvador Perez is out for 3-4 months with a knee injury.

Fresh off the heels of an awesome new five-year contract, 21-year-old Royals catcher Salvador Perez is out. It appears that Perez will need surgery to repair a torn meniscus in his knee, and could miss anywhere from 12 to 14 weeks. A knee injury has to be especially rough on a catcher, but Perez was ready to prove his contract (and 2011 performance) were no fluke. Pena’s .331 average in limited action last season is an oft-sourced statistic, but he has the potential to play at an above-average level beyond just a decent batting average. With the injury and rehab time, one shouldn’t expect Perez to get too much development time, and this could turn out to be a lost year for the young backstop.

Brayan Pena is now the full-time catcher for the Royals, which is not good at all. Pena is below-average hitter, according to his career wRC+ of 71. No matter how good defensively Pena is, it won’t make up for his bad bat. There aren’t too many catchers available on the open market, though I hear Ivan Rodriguez could use a job. Pudge hasn’t been too effective recently, but would provide veteran leadership on a young Royals squad. The Royals have dreams of contending soon, and they’ll need every bit of help they can get to beat out the Tigers. There’s not a player in house that’s capable of taking on more responsibility behind the plate with Perez out, so adding a player through trade or free agency should now be a priority. Maybe Jorge Posada‘s ready to follow Pettitte’s lead and will be the next guy to come out of retirement?

Quick Hits

• New York Mets third baseman David Wright has a minor abdominal tear, and while he says that he’ll be ready for Opening Day, never trust a DL estimate from the Mets. If Wright isn’t ready to go to start the season, one would probably expect Justin Turner to get most of the spots in Wright’s place. As for who might make the team on a temporary basis, I’d expect Josh Satin (or Zach Lutz) to get the call if Wright looks to miss extended time, but don’t overlook C/3B Lucas May either. May looked solid defensively in the Tigers-Mets Spring Training game, and he’s proved to be a reasonable hitter at the minor league level.
• Giancarlo Stanton of the Miami Marlins has some left knee inflamation, so he may miss some time but should be ready by April. If Stanton had to miss time, the Marlins are actually in pretty decent shape with Bryan Petersen. Not only is Petersen the star of an online webseries, but he’s also an underrated player. Petersen hits well (.334 wOBA) and showed solid defensive chops (5.6 UZR) in the outfield last season. But Stanton is one of the most exciting young hitters in baseball, and if he misses any time, the Marlins will suffer.

The San Francisco Giants Middle Infield

I thought for sure that the Giants would take the opportunity over the offseason to make a move and address the team’s biggest weakness: a lack of talent in the middle of the diamond. Instead, the Giants reloaded with veteran retreads in an attempt to patch their hole, and now project to have very poor production from the middle of the infield. Ostensibly, the starters for this team are veteran 2B Freddy Sanchez and rookie SS Brandon Crawford, but one has to expect that backups Ryan Theriot and Mike Fontenot will see plenty of time in the middle as well. And that’s not a good thing.

We’ll start with Crawford, who certainly has his good points. He’s a solid defensive shortstop, and has done well from both a scouting and an analytical standpoint.  In about 500 innings at short in 2011, Crawford managed to be worth about three runs with the leather, according to FanGraphs. That’s not half bad. Unfortunately, the glove (and arm…and range…and decent baserunning skill) is all Crawford has going for him. His bat is a work in progress, but even when that work is finished, it may not be any good. Brandon flashes virtually no power, makes fairly weak contact, and his burgeoning on-base skill can’t make up for his offensive failings. With a 60 wRC+ last season in limited action, he projects to be sub-par with the bat, and could be a real drain on an already soft Giant lineup. You have to play terrific D to hit as bad as Crawford does and stay a starter.

At second base is the veteran Freddy Sanchez. Sanchez is easily the best middle infielder on the Giants, capable of mixing above-average defense at the pivot with a bat that’s roughly league-average. At second base, that combination will certainly play. The Giants would have to be thrilled with a repeat of his 2010 performance, in which he was worth a full 2.5 FanGraphs WAR. But alas, Sanchez has become terribly injury-prone, and he’s on the downward slope of his career. Freddy only managed 111 games in both 2009 and 2010, then a meager 60 games in 2011. A late-season shoulder surgery should be recovered enough to have him start the season off the DL, but it remains to be seen if it affects his offensive output. Since Sanchez doesn’t hit for power or draw walks, his offense is tied to his ability to put balls in play, and if that skill fades, it will be a long season at second for the Giants.

The Giants are going to party like it is 2008 (and they’re the Cubs) with the combo of  Ryan Theriot and Mike Fontenot in the middle infield. I can already predict how this is going to work: Theriot will get the first call at short when Crawford fails to hit, and Fontenot will get the first call at second when Sanchez needs an injury breather. The trouble is, neither player is a plus defender, and both posted similar wRC+ scores in 2011. Theriot managed an 84 wRC+, while Fontenot managed an 87 wRC+. Unfortunately, both those scores put them as below-average hitters. Neither player hits for any power, or provides substantive walk totals. Do you see a pattern forming here? They may hit better than Crawford, but not by enough to offset their defensive shortcomings.

I wouldn’t get too worked up though, if I were a Giants fan. I personally believe that the team’s long term answer at second base is already on the team’s roster! If you want to try and hazard a guess at who I’m thinking of, take a minute. I’ll wait.

…

That’s right. Buster Posey. I had the opportunity to watch him play while I attended FSU, and I can attest that he has the footwork and defensive chops (he played shortstop for the ‘Noles…as well as every other position on the team) to make the Biggio-transition if the need presents itself. And from a realistic standpoint, I truly believe that it will. I think we all want Posey to stay behind the dish for as long as possible, but his bat is just too talented to risk the near-constant wear and tear that inevitably leads to injury. Posey’s bat would certainly play better in a position like second or third base rather than first, which should be locked up for the foreseeable future by Brandon Belt anyways.

The Seattle Mariners Outfield

Before Spring Training began, the Mariner outfield looked pretty much set. Since Jesus Montero projects to get many of the at-bats at DH, the Mariners looked to run out a glove-friendly outfield of Ichiro Suzuki (RF), Franklin Gutierrez (CF), and Mike Carp (LF). Alas, Gutierrez proved his reputation as an injury-prone player, and wound up with a torn pectoral muscle. With Gutierrez looking to miss about a month (if not more), the Mariners are looking for a new defensive anchor in the outfield.

Given that the Mariners aren’t poised to be top contenders this season, it seems unlikely that they’d look for an outside option. The team has several interesting, if not earth-shattering options to fill in at center until “Death to Flying Things” returns. Those options, in no particular order, are Casper Wells, Trayvon Robinson, Michael Saunders, and Chone Figgins. Robinson had a terrific stat line at Triple-A last season hitting 26 homers, but he makes precious little contact. His numbers were likely inflated by the positive run environment in the PCL, and he looks more like a Triple-A hitter or occasional bench bat. His defense probably isn’t good enough to keep him in a regular CF role anyways. Chone Figgins…is Chone Figgins. I’m not even sure why his name has come up as a potential CF option, given that he hasn’t played the position since 2006, and wasn’t particularly good there anyways when he did play in center. Figgins’s bat has completely disappeared (.218 wOBA in 2011) since coming to Seattle, and there’s virtually no way he’d be a positive upgrade over any other player with the lumber.

That leaves Casper Wells and Michael Saunders as the two most likely options in center. Both players play solid defense, and they are both young(ish) and have shown promise in the minor leagues. Each player strikes out too much (28.3% K-rate for Saunders, 26.5% for Wells), but shows flashes of power, and each could play passable center field given the opportunity. In fact, the biggest difference between the two players is their handedness: Saunders hits lefty while Wells hits righty. Given that both players are likely to make the team (as utility outfielders, if nothing else), the best bet for the Mariners might be to take the platoon advantage and alternate the two young players. By mixing and matching, they may be taking ABs away from the young hitters, but they’ll also be maximizing their advantage in each game. Given that neither Saunders or Wells is a real blue-chip prospect, the idea of playing each guy against their best opponent could be a strategy that pays dividends in the short-term. And if either player gets hot and cements himself as a starter, all the better.

Cleveland Indians CF Grady Sizemore will miss 8-12 weeks due to back surgery.

It was almost a given that Grady Sizemore would miss time in 2012, but even the Indians probably didn’t expect it to happen so soon. The superstar outfielder had a micro discectomy, and this back surgery will cause him to miss most of Spring Training, as well as the start to the season. With an extensive rehab process needed before Grady can get back on the field, and his existing history of injury, I’d say mid-May is the earliest we’d see Sizemore take the field for Cleveland. This is not the way the Indians wanted to spend the $5MM contract they signed Sizemore to before the season started.

With Grady missing from center field, it is safe to assume that Michael Brantley will take over in the middle of the outfield. Brantley posted respectable, if not stupendous, numbers in 2011. He amassed nearly 500 plate appearances, hit .266/.318/.384, and stole 13 bases. There’s still potential for his power, speed, and OBP numbers to improve a bit, and Brantley’s defense in center is solid enough to play everyday there. Brantley probably would have been the everyday left-fielder with Sizemore healthy, but now he’s more likely to hit near the top of the order, depending on the choices the Indians make with the newly-open left field position.

There’s no absolute clear left fielder in Cleveland with Brantley moving to center. The Indians have a host of guys in camp looking for a spot, including Russ Canzler, Matt LaPorta, Shelley Duncan, Aaron Cunningham, Ezequiel Carrera, Ryan Spilborghs, and Trevor Crowe. Spilborghs looks to have very, very little left in the tank after a terrible 2011, and Thomas Neal was very unimpressive in 2011 as well, except he was bad in Triple-A. Carrera makes a fine pinch-runner, but doesn’t project to have the bat to play every day. And Matt LaPorta may just be out of luck and time to prove himself as something greater than a Triple-A hitter. In fact, Canzler, LaPorta, and Cunningham all have a similar knock. All three have played well in the minors, but haven’t seen their production translate at the ML level yet. All three are also right-handed, which makes them pretty interchangeable as an option in left. I’d actually expect that Cunningham’s versatility will keep him in the mix in Cleveland, but as a fourth-outfielder capable of spelling Brantley, Choo, or whomever gets the LF job. Canzler is able to back up all four corner spots, but LaPorta has more upside if his bat ever starts working in the bigs, but both could wind up in Columbus to begin the year.

That leaves two options for the LF job: Shelley Duncan and Trevor Crowe. Duncan, like the three candidates I just covered, bats right-handed. But unlike those three, Duncan actually put up pretty decent numbers in limited action last season. Duncan hit 11 HR in 247 plate appearances last year, and was good for a 118 wRC+. That will play, especially given how badly he treated right-handed pitchers, torching them for a .390 wOBA. If he could keep up that level of hitting against same-handed pitchers, that would make for a worthwhile everyday left fielder. But that performance was outside of his usual abilities, he typically hits lefties better than righties. If Duncan needed a platoon partner, the Indians might want to leverage one of the only backup outfielders on the roster who can hit left-handed in Trevor Crowe. Crowe’s a switch-hitting outfielder with some speed, and he has a tendency to perform better when hitting left-handed in the majors. If Crowe can put up league-average numbers against opposite-handed pitchers, he might be as good a caddy as anyone if the Indians want to get the platoon advantage.

Ultimately, I see this as Shelley Duncan’s position to lose, unless LaPorta, Canzler, or one of the other candidates has a ridiculous Spring Training. Duncan has enough power to be a worthwhile (if very, very late round) fantasy pickup, as his power is legit. In a full season, he’s the type of player who could put up 20+ HR. But we’ll certainly have to see how Spring Training plays out before we know anything definite. And even once Sizemore comes back from this particular injury, don’t expect the position shuffle to end. Given injury histories for fellow Indians Shin-Soo Choo and Travis Hafner, there could be a lot of moving a shaking before the season is over in Cleveland.

Pittsburgh Pirates SP A.J. Burnett will miss 8-12 weeks due to facial surgery.

Freak injuries like the one to A.J. Burnett’s face during bunting practice are never a good thing. And as someone projected to be the Opening Day starter for an improving Pittsburgh team, this one has to particularly sting. Now that A.J. will be having surgery on his face due to a fractured orbital bone around his eye, the Pirates are back to where they were a month ago: a rotation filled with young guys who don’t have a whole lot to offer. While Burnett isn’t an elite starter, he would have provided heft to a rotation full of end-of-the-bench starters.

With A.J. out, both Jeff Karstens and Charlie Morton should be guaranteed their spots in the rotation to start. Neither player is particularly noteworthy, but hey, it’s a slow week so we’ll break them down anyways! Charlie Morton got a little bit of press by admitting he tried to copy Roy Halladay‘s delivery and style note-for-note before the 2011 season, and then started off having quite a bit of success with the copycat style. Pretty soon, though, things came back to normal. By the end of the season, the Pirates might have been better served by running the other baseball-playing Charlie Morton out there every fifth day. You know, the one who’s been dead for nearly a century. The current Morton is great at not giving up home runs (0.31 HR/9 in 2011), but his Roy Halladay impersonation doesn’t include the requisite strikeouts to make him a top-level starter. He’s a replacement-level guy, or maybe a little better if he can continue to keep the ball in the yard at such a low rate.

Jeff Karstens, like Burnett, is another former Yankee who’s been exiled to Pittsburgh. Karstens had a good season if you use ERA as measure (3.38 ERA in 2011), but the advanced metrics tell a different story. His FIP was a full run higher at 4.29, which isn’t awful, but belied a very low BABIP of .275. Karsten relies on his command, reducing walks, and getting guys out on balls in play, so luck plays a big part in his success. The Pirates won’t get killed running him out there every fifth day, but chances are that they’ll wish they had Burnett back sooner rather than later.

Before the injury, A.J. Burnett was a pretty solid fantasy option in the later rounds of a draft or in deep leagues. Now, he’s more of a wait-and-see guy. The only reason this injury should affect his game is the missed Spring Training time to get ready; remember that this isn’t an arm injury that could mess with his velocity or control. Hopefully, Burnett will have a speedy recovery and be back soon, but until he does, you might be better off drafting someone else and waiting for A.J. on the waiver wire.

Quick Hits

• The Cleveland Indians already have another injury issue worth watching. Closer Chris Perez is dealing with an oblique strain and will probably miss the first few weeks of the season. Yeah, Perez is the closer, but he was pretty bad in 2011. A live arm in previous seasons, Perez saw his strikeout rate (2010: 8.71 K/9, 2011: 5.88 K/9) crater all of a sudden, with no change to his walk rate (3.92 BB/9) at all. He managed a 3.32 ERA and 36 saves, but that masked a SIERA of 4.65 and xFIP of 5.01. That’s hardly closer quality. Picking up the slack in the meantime will be Vinnie Pestano, who emerged in his rookie season as the best reliever in the Cleveland ‘pen. Pestano struck out a mountain of guys (84, to be exact) and could well be more effective in a ninth-inning role than Perez ever was. Since we don’t know if Pestano will snatch the job away on a permanent basis, don’t go crazy drafting Pestano in fantasy yet. But I trust that Manny Acta and punk-rock pitching coach Scott Radinsky will eventually turn the ninth over to Pestano. And don’t be too surprised in Tony Sipp sees a few holds chances with Pestano closing.

The Houston Astros name SP/RP Brett Myers closer.

Rather unexpectedly, the Astros announced yesterday that Brett Myers will be moving back to the bullpen, and should open the 2012 season as the closer for the Astros. This adjusts expectations both for the bullpen and the rotation, as Myers had been a fixture in the Houston starting rotation since coming over from the Phillies in 2010. Myers hasn’t been particularly good recently, posting a 4.46/4.26/3.75 ERA/FIP/xFIP triple-slash line. Myers has always performed worse than his xFIP has indicated, but in 2011 he was especially snakebitten by runners on base. Myers has a tough time striking out hitters, so it seems his main strength lies in his ability to throw 200 innings a year. That doesn’t exactly help him in the ‘pen.

Now, instead of Myers holding down a role in the rotation, spots will go to Wandy Rodriguez, Bud Norris, J.A. Happ, and Jordan Lyles. The fifth spot could perhaps go to newly-acquired young pitchers Kyle Weiland and Brett Olberholtzer. Instead, initial reports say that it is more likely that a veteran, either Livan Hernandez or Zach Duke, will fill the fifth starter role. To me, this is a huge mistake. The Astros need to find young talent where they can, and there’s little to no chance that Hernandez or Duke will be a tradeable asset or a valuable piece of the team going forward. This move could likely do nothing to either improve the rotation today or develop young talent, which would be a mistake.

I had previously expected hard-throwing righty David Carpenter to win the closing job in Houston for the coming season, but swapping Myers into that role probably won’t affect the won-loss record of the team. Moving Myers to the closer spot may make him more attractive as a trade candidate, but teams haven’t been falling all over themselves to acquire Myers and his  But if the ‘Stros could pass off David Carpenter as a real closer, he’d have some real trade value himself. Pitchers like former Astro Mark Melancon (and Andrew Bailey…and Sergio Santos…and Sean Marshall) have brought back good young pieces in trade. These are things that If Myers becomes a closer, then he obviously comes up to fantasy baseball relevance as a low-tier closer.

If the move opens up space for a young pitcher in the rotation, then this is probably a solid move for a team looking to develop young talent. And if this move convinces another franchise that it’s worth it to trade for Brett Myers, well that’s probably a good deal in and of itself. But if they’re moving on from Myers to fit Hernandez or Duke in the rotation, then they’re just rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic.

Oakland Athletics 3B Scott Sizemore is out for the 2012 season with a torn ACL.

You know, the Oakland Athletics need another position battle. Unfortunately, incumbent third baseman Scott Sizemore suffered an ACL injury that will keep him out for the entire upcoming season. This injury makes something completely obvious: the Athletics have precious little infield depth. Either Eric Sogard or Adam Rosales could step in and fill in at third, but neither player has skills that really profile at the hot corner. Both players have even less bat than Sizemore (who’s a good, but not-yet-great with the stick), so it would behoove them to find someone who is not currently on the 25-man roster as a replacement.

Initial word out of Oakland is that catcher Josh Donaldson will get first crack at the starting gig with Sizemore out. Donaldson probably isn’t a good enough hitter to be a major league catcher (95 wRC+ in Triple-A), so I’d be surprised if he will stick at third. In all honesty, the A’s probably need to go out and add another player. Trade candidates are out there that include players like Juan Francisco, Daniel Murphy, or Alberto Callaspo. I’d expect the Athletics to target low-cost, high-control players who could stick with the team for several seasons in trade. There’s been no rumor to the effect, but I wonder if there’s any chance the A’s would look into moving former SS and current CF prospect Grant Green to the hot corner. But as it stands now, the Athletics have a huge hole that needs to be filled pronto.

The New York Yankees sign RP David Aardsma to a one-year, $500K deal.

David Aardsma may be most famous for being the MLB player who is listed first alphabetically by last name. But now, he’s going to be a late-inning pitcher for the Bronx Bombers once he recovers from Tommy John surgery. Aardsma was quite effective as a closer for the Mariners in 2009 and 2010, saving 69 games over those two seasons. The journeyman reliever sports a career 4.20 ERA and 4.24 FIP, but he has outperformed both these numbers over the last two seasons, showing that the could still be in his pitching prime. The only open question is whether or not he will be able to recover from his TJ surgery and perform at the level which he is accustomed.

If he comes back strong at the end of this year, expect the Yankees to pick up an option for 2013 at $500K. Could Aardsma then be the next man up if Mariano Rivera were to retire at the end of the season? Probably not…that’s probably David Robertson‘s slot to lose. I also don’t imagine Aardsma will have much of a fantasy impact this season…though he could have a little value in holds leagues as a late waiver pickup. But first, we’ve got to see that he’s able to recover from his injury.

Quick Hits

• Word is coming out from Mets camp that former Cy Young-winner Johan Santana may actually be ready to pitch by Opening Day. Santana would solidify a Met rotation without top-end talent, and would probably be the #1 starter by default. If he is able to go, expect the Met rotation to shake out with some combination of Santana, R.A. Dickey, Jon Niese, Mike Pelfrey, and Dillon Gee. If Santana can’t step into the rotation right away, expect journeyman-poet Miguel Batista to hold down the last spot in the rotation until he’s ready.
• The Angels have been talking all winter about shoring up their bullpen (or even bringing in a closer to displace Jordan Walden), but now they’ve added another arm to their ‘pen in Jason Isringhausen. Izzy, formerly of the Mets, Athletics, Cardinals, and Rays, picked up a few saves (including his 300th) in Flushing last season, but he’s probably not a guy to rely on in the ninth. Instead, he’ll provide veteran presence and a few strikeouts (8.43 K/9 in 2011) as a setup arm in Anaheim – at least as long as his right arm holds up.
• A wave of catchers retired over the last week or so. Three very solid veterans of different stripes called it quits: Jorge Posada, Jason Varitek, and Bengie Molina all are officially calling it quits for 2012. Posada is probably headed for the Hall of Fame as one of the most potent offensive catchers of the last thirty years. Jason Varitek will never have to buy a beer in Boston, and should see his number retired, but doesn’t have the offensive chops to find a home in Cooperstown. And Molina, despite being an effective backstop for a decade, never had a transcendent season but was a long-time starter. All three of these players might be joined by another great catcher, Ivan Rodriguez, if he doesn’t hook on soon.

I look to our readers and other writers for their comments, their raves, and their criticisms of all the teams that participated. And as Dennis requested in his original post, it would be great if everyone could be cordial in their comments, regardless of how they feel about draft strategy.

The draft was a regular snake draft run over at Mock Draft Central – and it was standard for them. Imagine a traditional 5×5 league (AVG, HR, R, RBI, SB, W, ERA, WHIP, K, SV) with 23 roster spots and no bench. 5 OFs, MI, CI, UTIL and the usual suspects otherwise. Here’s how the draft went for the first five rounds:

ROUND ONE

• Team1  - Matt Kemp (OF)
• Team2  - Albert Pujols (1B)
• Team3  - Ryan Braun (OF)
• Team4  - Jose Bautista (3B, OF)
• Team5  - Miguel Cabrera (1B)
• Team6  - Joey Votto (1B)
• Team7  - Troy Tulowitzki (SS)
• Team8  - Justin Verlander (SP)
• Team9  - Adrian Gonzalez (1B)
• Team10 – Jacoby Ellsbury (OF)
• Team11 – Robinson Cano (2B)
• Team12 – Roy Halladay (SP)

ROUND TWO

• Team12 – Clayton Kershaw (SP)
• Team11 – Justin Upton (OF)
• Team10 – Dustin Pedroia (2B)
• Team9  - Evan Longoria (3B)
• Team8  - Carlos Gonzalez (OF)
• Team7  - Prince Fielder (1B)
• Team6  - Jose Reyes (SS)
• Team5  - Hanley Ramirez (SS)
• Team4  - Curtis Granderson (OF)
• Team3  - Felix Hernandez (SP)
• Team2  - Cliff Lee (SP)
• Team1  - Tim Lincecum (SP)

ROUND THREE

• Team1  - Andrew McCutchen (OF)
• Team2  - Mike Stanton (OF)
• Team3  - Josh Hamilton (OF)
• Team4  - Ian Kinsler (2B)
• Team5  - Adrian Beltre (3B)
• Team6  - Mark Teixeira (1B)
• Team7  - David Wright (3B)
• Team8  - Cole Hamels (SP)
• Team9  - Jay Bruce (OF)
• Team10 – Dan Uggla (2B)
• Team11 – Carlos Santana (C, 1B)
• Team12 – Ryan Zimmerman (3B)

ROUND FOUR

• Team12 – Hunter Pence (OF)
• Team11 – Aramis Ramirez (3B)
• Team10 – Brett Lawrie (3B)
• Team9  - C.C. Sabathia (SP)
• Team8  - Jered Weaver (SP)
• Team7  - Dan Haren (SP)
• Team6  - Nelson Cruz (OF)
• Team5  - Zack Greinke (SP)
• Team4  - Mike Napoli (C, 1B)
• Team3  - Carl Crawford (OF)
• Team2  - Starlin Castro (SS)
• Team1  - David Price (SP)

ROUND FIVE

• Team1  - Matt Holliday (OF)
• Team2  - Eric Hosmer (1B)
• Team3  - Elvis Andrus (SS)
• Team4  - Desmond Jennings (OF)
• Team5  - Yovani Gallardo (SP)
• Team6  - Jon Lester (SP)
• Team7  - Stephen Strasburg (SP)
• Team8  - Paul Konerko (1B)
• Team9  - Brian McCann (C)
• Team10 – Alex Gordon (OF)
• Team11 – Asdrubal Cabrera (SS)
• Team12 – Matt Cain (SP)

So yeah, with that in mind…I’m Team5. And here’s my entire team:

• C  - Buster Posey (R6 P8)
• 1B – Miguel Cabrera (R1 P5)
• 2B – Ben Zobrist (R8 P8)
• SS – Hanley Ramirez (R2 P8)
• 3B – Adrian Beltre (R3 P5)
• OF – Adam Jones (R7 P5)
• OF – Peter Bourjos (R11 P5)
• OF – Yoenis Cespedes (R15 P5)
• OF – Lucas Duda (R18 P8)
• OF – Brennan Boesch (R19 P5)
• MI – Emilio Bonifacio (R16 P8)
• CI – Lance Berkman (R9 P5)
• UT – Jesus Montero (R14 P8)
• SP – Zack Greinke (R4 P8)
• SP – Yovani Gallardo (R5 P5)
• SP – Chris Carpenter (R12 P8)
• SP – Scott Baker (R17 P5)
• RP – Joel Hanrahan (R10 P8)
• RP – Sergio Santos (R13 P5)
• RP – Aroldis Chapman (R20 P8)
• RP – Frank Francisco (R21 P5)
• RP – Jonny Venters (R22 P8)

So that’s my draft, and my team. What do you guys think?

The New York Yankees sign LF/DH Raul Ibanez to a one-year, $1.1MM contract.

When a big new free agent signs with the Yankees, there’s usually lots of buzz and fanfare. The big new Bomber acquisition for the 2012 season has come, and it’s a 39-year old coming off the worst season of his career. Raul Ibanez has agreed to join the Yankees, and he’ll probably be the left-handed hitting half of a DH platoon, partnering with Andruw Jones. The New York faithful hopes Raul hits closer to his 2010 self (109 wRC+) than his 2011 self (90 wRC+), but he probably won’t get more than 300 AB regardless.

Honestly, I’m not too sure this is a great deal for the Yankees. Maybe I’m just feeling the recency bias, but Raul was just an average hitter even on the good side of his platoon split last season (.322 wOBA against righties). Given that he offers little upside and negative defensive value, I feel that the Yankees could have done better by waiting for a Spring Training cut or trade opportunity like Brandon Allen, Kila Ka’aihue, Juan Francisco, or Clete Thomas. In Ibanez, the Yankees are paying for name value and past production…something that they’ve done quite a bit in the past. Granted, a million dollars is very different from the contracts they’d handed out to aging superstars in the past, but it is money that did not need to be spent. If he would’ve taken the contract, Johnny Damon probably could provide better offense than the equally aged Ibanez.

At best, Ibanez is going to be a platoon DH, and players like that have little to no fantasy value. In AL-only leagues, he may be worth a late-round flyer, but I’d rather have his platoon partner, Andruw Jones. Jones is likely to be a better hitter with more power potential, but neither player is worth rostering in most leagues. Expect Russell Martin, Derek Jeter, and Alex Rodriguez to get a fair share of DH plate appearances as well as Ibanez.

The Oakland Athletics sign LF/DH Manny Ramirez to a minor league contract with an invitation to Spring Training.

Hahahahaha. Ahahaha.

With that out of the way, I literally cannot believe the Athletics have added another outfielder / designated hitter type, especially after also adding Yoenis Cespedes (and Seth Smith and Jonny Gomes and Collin Cowgill and Josh Reddick). I’m so glad I spent all that time breaking down The Hydra, and then re-breaking things down after the Cespedes signing. Manny will be Manny in Oakland, at least after he serves a 50-game suspension for PED use.

So is Manny a good signing? Sure, in a vacuum. In 2010, the third-worst season of his career, Manny was still a way-above-average hitter with a .382 wOBA. Quite honestly, Manny Ramirez can hit. He can hit in any park, in any situation, and he could probably hit falling out of an airplane. If he’s healthy, I fully expect him to ruthlessly conquer the DH spot in the Athletic lineup, and put up decent numbers in the process. But he’s going to take plate appearances away from guys like Josh Reddick and Collin Cowgill and Chris Carter. Maybe the A’s aren’t the best fit for Manny, but they’re the most willing fit, and none of the players Manny is displacing is a sure thing. This may just be crazy enough to work.

Fantasy-wise, don’t draft Manny. Please. He could be a solid waiver-wire pickup two weeks before he’s ready to come off his suspension. But the power is diminishing, and he’ll probably be of minimal value in anything that’s not an OBP league. If you play an OBP league…well, he could be more than just an ok play.

The Boston Red Sox receive RP Chris Carpenter as compensation for the signing of GM Theo Epstein.

This probably is not the Chris Carpenter that the Red Sox would like to see, given their rotation uncertainty. But as a compensation pick for losing a year of GM Theo Epstein, the Sox could do a lot worse than Chris Carpenter. Carpenter is a live arm, capable of hitting triple-digits in short stints, but he’s struggled at times with his command. He’s also consistently ranked among the top 15 Chicago Cubs prospects in a number of lists over the past few seasons. At best, he could be a high-leverage reliever and the next coming of Daniel Bard. At worst, he’ll walk five guys per nine innings and never make it past Triple-A.

In two years, Carpenter might be a nice piece to the Boston bullpen, or he could be missing in action. But there’s no point in drafting him in your fantasy league this year. Even in dynasty leagues, CC might be a bit too far off to waste a draft pick on.

Quick Hits

• One of the most underrated players of the last two decades, Mike Cameron, has announced his retirement from baseball. This comes on the heels of signing to compete for the starting center field job for the Nationals, but the Nats still have depth on hand in Roger Bernadina, Rick Ankiel, and (maybe) Jayson Werth. Cameron will forever be known as a linchpin in the Ken Griffey Jr. trade to Cincinnati, but he was a tremendous player in his own right. Depending on your WAR flavor of choice, Cameron was worth between 45 and 55 wins above replacement over his 17-year career. He played stellar defense, he hit for power, and he stole bases. Mike Cameron was a heck of a ballplayer, and had a terrific run in the majors.
• The Cleveland Indians agreed to sign former Twin, National, and Ranger Cristian Guzman to a minor league deal in the hopes that he can back up Asdrubal Cabrera and Jason Kipnis this season. Guzman is (believe it or not) a two-time All-Star, but missed 2011 due to a shoulder injury. If that injury is healed, Guzman may be able to retain his old form…but Guzman has a history of sub-par hitting and average-to-poor defense. In his earlier years he was quick on the basepaths, but these days he’s a high-contact, low-power hitter at best. If he plays like it’s 2009, then Guzman could be a decent big league piece, but if not, he’s probably out of work.
• The Yankees weren’t done adding hitters after signing Ibanez, as they also brought back 3B/1B Eric Chavez on a one-year deal. The deal, which is estimated at $900K, hinged on the Yankees dumping some of A.J. Burnett’s salary in recent days. As such, Chavez should be the primary backup to both Mark Teixeira and Alex Rodriguez. Though Chavez’s bat is a far cry from his All-Star seasons in Oakland (he only posted a .263/.320/.356 slash line in 2011), he’s still a solid defensive player and veteran presence in the Bronx.
• The last (and least) of the recent Yankee signings is relief pitcher Clay Rapada. Rapada has been inked to a minor league deal, which is probably for the best, considering he’s never been very good at the major league level. In 16.1 major league innings last year, Clay posted a 6.06 ERA and a 4.49 FIP for the Orioles. Unlike Ibanez and Chavez, Rapada is likely not to have any effect at all on the Yankees’ playoff chances, and probably will be the last man in the bullpen at best.

(By the way, still no Roy Oswalt signing. This is getting ridiculous.)

The New York Yankees trade SP A.J. Burnett and $20MM to the Pittsburgh Pirates for RP Diego Moreno and OF Exicardo Cayones.

In a deal that was as much about money as it was performance, the Yankees finally parted ways with highly-paid starter A.J. Burnett. Burnett had been the subject of trade discussions ever since his performance slipped in 2010. Burnett appeared to be muscled out of the rotation by the acquisitions of Michael Pineda and Hiroki Kuroda this year, and the Yankees must be pleased to find a team willing to take on some of Burnett’s salary. A.J. was due $33MM over the next two years, and the Yankees will pay $20MM of that for the Pirates to take on that last $13MM of the deal. This should free up enough money for the Yankees to add a couple of bench or DH-type bats, as well as make them more flexible for mid-season acquisitions.

In return, the Pirates get something they’ve been lacking for years: a reliable guy to eat innings. It may come as a surprise, but A.J. is probably the ace of this Pirates staff now. Burnett should slot in ahead of Erik Bedard, James McDonald, Kevin Correia, and Charlie Morton or Jeff Karstens. Though A.J. was undoubtedly a disappointment in his time in the Bronx, he isn’t a terrible pitcher. Burnett earned $49.5MM over the last three years, and the way Yankee fans complain, you’d think he was worth nothing. In fact, FanGraphs values him as worth $28.7MM over that span, which is $20MM less than what he made, but that’s still a very valuable player. Burnett was torched by the long ball as a Yankee, especially last year. Moving out of the bandbox that is Yankee Stadium, Jr. should help him put up more reasonable numbers in 2012 and 2013. Also, accurate future performance predictors SIERA and FIP both had him as an above-average pitcher in 2011, actually. A SIERA of 3.89 and xFIP of 3.86 would be a breath of fresh air in Pittsburgh, and I look for him to be a very strong off-season acquisition.

Let’s talk a little about New York’s return in this trade: Moreno and Cayones. Neither of these guys matter in the slightest. Neither projects to be a major-league player. The end.

Now that Burnett’s in Pittsburgh, it’s fair to ask if he’s a fantasy factor. Truthfully, I’m not sure yet. He’s always managed to get a decent number of strikeouts (8.22 per nine innings over his career), and that tends to play in fantasy. You can also rely on Burnett, which is shocking given how his early career went.

The Boston Red Sox sign Ross Ohlendorf to a minor-league contract with an invitation to Spring Training.

This is not the R.O. starting pitcher that the Sox were hoping for, but hey, things could be worse. They could have signed a pitcher who racked up a 6.28 FIP in 2011 instead. What’s that? Ohlendorf was that bad last season? Hrm. Well, it was only in about forty innings, so there could be a small sample size issue in play here. At his best, Ohlendorf was about average as a starter, and being able to get back to that level would be a magnificent coup for the Sox. Granted, that probably won’t happen, but looking at his career stats, its possible that he could find work as a spot starter or back-of-the-bullpen arm.

I imagine that Ohlendorf isn’t the first choice for a rotation spot among the Sox gaggle of non-roster invitees, or even the second. Aaron Cook or Felix Doubront would probably be a better #4 or #5 starter than Ohlendorf, but Ross has his pluses as well. He does have a history of striking out more than six guys per nine innings, even in his worst years. If nothing else, he’ll be depth at the Triple-A level, and he’ll be a guy who won’t need a lot of deliberation if they need to cut him loose from the 40-man or 25-man roster.

From a fantasy perspective, avoid avoid avoid Ross Ohlendorf. But given the fact that you’ve probably been doing that for the last four or five years, you’re probably good. He’s not going to be a whole lot better moving into a hitter’s park, in a harder league, in the toughest division for a pitcher…and his numbers with the Pirates were not fantasy-worthy.

Quick Hits

• The Cincinnati Reds signed Brett Tomko to a minor-league deal (with an invite to Spring Training). In 2011, Tomko was what he has almost always been: a replacement-level pitcher. He’ll get a few strikeouts, he’ll walk too many guys, and not be worth anything other than an end-of-the-bullpen roster spot. Players like Tomko are useful due to their versatility, but they’re not fantasy-worthy and won’t change your franchise’s fortune.
• The San Francisco Giants signed Ramon Ortiz to a minor league contract with an invitation to Spring Training. Ortiz pitched for the Cubs last season and wasn’t particularly good by standard measures…but actually managed a 4.14 xFIP and 3.90(!?) SIERA. Granted, that’s only in 33.1 innings pitched, but Ortiz could easily find himself doing time at the end of the San Francisco rotation and bullpen. Don’t get me wrong, he’s a #5 or spot-starter at best and has literally zero fantasy value, but he could play another year, and may even outperform Barry Zito.
• Hideki Okajima failed his physical, and won’t suit up for the New York Yankees this season. I actually really liked him as a bounce-back candidate this season to sneakily put up good numbers. I hope that he gets healthy and nabs another chance to pitch in the majors, but the Yankees probably won’t be too worried about replacing him.
• Finally, it’s time to bid a fond farewell to Tim Wakefield. Wakefield has been a fixture as a member of the Red Sox for the last 17 years of his 19-year career. Most famous for carrying on the proud tradition of knuckleball pitchers, Wakefield finishes his career with over two hundred wins and two World Series rings. For me, it’s especially bittersweet. Wakefield is my wife’s favorite baseball player of all time, in part because they share a hometown. Both of our favorite players are knuckleballers (my favorite’s R.A. Dickey), and I’m glad that Wakefield had such a long and successful career. He’ll be missed.

(Seriously guys, what are we gonna do about this Roy Oswalt thing?)

The Oakland Athletics sign Yoenis Cespedes to a four-year, $36MM contract.

What’s left to say about Yoenis Cespedes? If you haven’t heard yet, Cespedes is the hottest thing to come out of Cuba since black market cigars. As an elite athlete (he looks like a NFL running back) who also put up elite stats (20-30 HR per year…in 90 game seasons) at home in Cuba, Cespedes has rare upside. The only question is if he can translate his awesome tools to the MLB game. I actually like this deal for Oakland very much…it is the kind of high-risk, high-reward signing that teams firmly out of contention should do. If Cespedes turns out to be a 2.0 WAR center fielder over the life of this contract, I’d say that’s a fair return on investment, as current metrics usually parse out a dollar value between $4-5MM for one win. If he’s better than that projection, the Athletics have a nice, undervalued asset and you can make a Moneyball joke.

But as an Oakland Athletic in 2012, where does Yoenis fit? The big-money major-league contract would seem to indicate that the Athletics want to see an immediate return on investment, but I wouldn’t rush to judgement yet. Cespedes probably needs more than a Spring Training run to adapt to ML pitching, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see him start 2012 in Double-A. There he’ll get regular plate appearances, and the A’s brass will be able to evaluate his offensive and defensive talents in game situations. Keep in mind that Oakland sees every player as a trade asset, and wouldn’t want an ineffective Cespedes in the majors, looking like a “bust”.

Unless Cespedes falls apart entirely (or goes nuts and hits dozens of HR), I’m going against the grain and predicting that he’ll probably find his way to Oakland around June or so. Oakland is said to have a logjam in the outfield now…one that I covered a few days ago in this article. Me, I’m not sure that they do. Coco Crisp and Seth Smith are locks for two OF/DH positions, with Smith possibly looking for a platoon partner. Josh Reddick will likely get a long look in RF, as he proved he’s got major league chops last season. And Yoenis isn’t the only player that the A’s need to take a look at. Michael Taylor, Chris Carter, Brandon Allen, Collin Cowgill, and others all need to get ML at-bats to prove their worth. The odd man out, at least for me, is Jonny Gomes. Gomes hits right-handed (same as Cespedes), but has little upside and will only be in Oakland on a one-year deal worth $1MM. While Gomes is a known commodity, the A’s need to see what right-handed hitters Carter and Taylor can do. I doubt the A’s would lose much if they replaced Gomes with Chris Carter for 2012.

So what is Cespedes’s fantasy value? I see him as a very high-risk prospect, a la Desmond Jennings in 2011. He should offer steals and power if everything breaks right, but in a limited amount of AB. And while Cespedes could put up numbers like Jennings did last season, there’s also the possibility that he could crater and provide little or no value for your fantasy squad. Use caution when drafting him, or even just setting your expectations for his performance. In many respects, he is quite a bit like another import: Yu Darvish. Hype and gaudy stats in other leagues could make these players as good as advertised, or they could mean little compared to U.S. competition. Cespedes may be a star, just don’t expect miracles right away.

The Chicago White Sox sign Kosuke Fukudome to a one-year, $1MM contract.

It’s back to Chicago for Kosuke Fukudome, who signed a one-year deal to play for the Chicago White Sox yesterday. Fukudome never quite lived up to the hype of his signing in his time in the Windy City, but he’s put up 5.6 fWAR over the last four seasons. Fukudome’s calling card has always been his stellar walk rate, but that fell precipitously from 15.4% in 2010 to 10.1% in 2011. The good news is that his performance improved after a mid-season trade to the Cleveland Indians, and he’ll find himself back in the AL Central again this year. The outfielder, who can play all three positions in a pinch, is entering his age-35 season, so one might expect his already suspect tools to diminish further as time goes on.

Fukudome profiles as the fourth outfielder in Chicago, likely behind Alex Rios, Alejandro De Aza, and maybe Dayan Viciedo. The White Sox don’t really have any other good internal options on the bench, though Brent Lillibridge does a decent job playing the super-sub role. Jordan Danks may be close to contributing, and if he breaks camp with the big club, De Aza (or Brent Morel) may be pushed to the bench and Fukudome moves even further down the depth chart. If Danks doesn’t break with the team, Dayan Viciedo’s fielding deficiencies may cause Fukudome to fill in as a late-inning defensive replacement, even though his defense isn’t particularly good. New manager Robin Ventura may value Fukudome’s patient approach at the plate, but if he can’t get on base, then even he could have trouble hanging around at the ML level.

From a fantasy standpoint, you’ll probably want to stay away from Kosuke. I drafted him in an OBP league and still regret it, as his declining skill at the plate makes him an unimpressive fantasy player. If he gets full-season playing time, he could muster ten homers, but he won’t get that playing time and you’re better off investing in a higher-upside player.

In all honesty, I’m a little surprised the White Sox committed guaranteed money (and a club option for 2013) to Fukudome. He more fits the role of a minor-league contract guy. If Jordan Danks and Dayan Viciedo play as well as expected in 2012, chances are the White Sox will wish they had the money back…but fora million dollars, the team also could have done worse than Fukudome. He’s a fourth or fifth outfielder who won’t kill you, but he won’t provide the pop off the bench that many managers like in a pinch-hitting outfielder.

The Baltimore Orioles sign Luis Ayala to a one-year, $925K contract.

Believe it or not, this was the only other “big” signing since our previous edition of the Roster Report. Luis Ayala, coming off a fairly effective 2011, received a low-ball, but guaranteed contract offer. Those aren’t just flying around these days. Ayala managed a shiny 2.09 ERA last season with the Yankees, but don’t be fooled! That ERA belies a 4.19 FIP and 4.15 xFIP. Ayala’s just a league-average reliever who benefited from a huge 85.7% strand rate in 2011. When a reliever is about league average, and his upside is also league-average, then he can be worth a roster spot. But Ayala obviously isn’t a fantasy factor, and is hardly likely to put up shocking numbers for not-gonna-contend Baltimore. I’m not sure if Baltimore would be better served by putting a young guy with upside in their ‘pen, but these are hardly the moves that make or break a team.

Quick Hits

• The Orioles also added OBP machine Nick Johnson on a one-year, minor league deal with an invite to Spring Training. Johnson is great when he’s healthy, except he’s not. Nor was he any good last year in Triple-A with the Indians. More than likely, this is the last stop in his career. And even if he does make it to the majors somehow, he’s only fantasy-relevant in OBP leagues.
• The Cleveland Indians continue to explore starting pitching options after the fallout from the Fausto Carmona / Roberto Heredia controversy. Now they’ve added former White Sox mainstay Jon Garland on a minor-league deal. Garland has been an interesting pitcher over the course of his career: durable, reliable, but not particularly good (4.68 career FIP). Last year, he followed the same pattern, except without the “durable” and “reliable” parts. He only posted 54 innings, but otherwise his rate stats were very similar to his career norms. Garland can’t strike anyone out, so even if he stays healthy he’s unlikely to be fantasy-relevant or anything other than a #5 starter at the ML level.
• It’s a pattern. Another player who used to be pretty good isn’t so good any more, and is now trying to catch on with a minor league deal. This time it’s Scott LInebrink, and the team in question is the St. Louis Cardinals. Linebrink used to be a pretty solid middle-relief and setup guy, but now he gives up way too many HR to be anything more than just another guy in the bullpen. Though Linebrink might’ve had a respectable ERA last season with Atlanta, he benefited from a strand rate over 80%, and his FIP and xFIP (4.30 and 4.18, respectively) tell a story of mediocrity. A minor league deal isn’t a bad flyer, but with little upside and lots of miles, chances are that we’ll only talk about Linebrink after he gives up a big HR to someone like Ryan Braun.

The pitching situation will be something to watch, as talents such as Graham Godfrey, Tyson Ross, Jarrod Parker, Tom Milone, and Brad Peacock all vie for roster spots. But even more interesting and messy is the outfield / DH / first base situation. The Athletics have, by my count, at least nine players vying for duty at these four spots…and all of these players have a non-zero chance of making the squad. Basically, the Athletics have a situation where if any player fails, there are two more people ready to take his place. That’s why I like to call this situation “The Hydra” – if you cut off one head, two more appear. It’s a rarity for a team to have so many question marks in such prime offensive positions, usually RF, LF, 1B, and DH are the four most prime power-hitting spots in the lineup.

So what I’ll do here is break down the Athletics middle-of-the order Hydra here, giving you odds on which players will make the major league roster and what their most likely role will be.

Seth Smith

Smith is the only one of the nine guys I’m profiling who is absolutely assured of breaking camp with the big club. In the left-handed Smith’s career, he has been a terror against right-handed pitchers, and there’s no reason to think that this trend will end here. Over his career, he’s hit 47 of his 51 HR and has posted an excellent .377 wOBA against righties. If you can protect Smith against left-handed pitchers, perhaps by platooning him with another acquisition, he’ll be extremely effective. Given that Smith is an adequate fielder in left, has plenty of major-league experience, and has shown consistency and skill, you can be assured that he’ll start the lion’s share of games as Oakland’s LF.

Chance of making the 25-man roster: 100%

Likely role: LF against right-handed pitchers

Jonny Gomes

The Athletics surprised some when they inked Jonny Gomes to a one-year, $1MM contract when they already had plenty of outfield options. Gomes didn’t have a great 2011, but to be fair, he hasn’t had a great year in his career. Jonny has some power, and stacks huge amounts of strikeouts, but his best use is as the small side of a lefty-righty platoon. Fortunately, with Seth Smith in house, Gomes is a terrific fit as someone who can take the at-bats against lefties that Smith would rather not get. Though Gomes only managed a .209/.325/.389 slash line, his walk rate jumped up and he was mis-used against too many righties. Despite a career wOBA of .378 against lefties but only .317 against righties, Gomes saw twice as many right-handed pitchers as he did lefties with the Nats and Reds last year. Used appropriately in Oakland, he could be a valuable asset for the team and a productive hitter. It turns out that this could be a wise and valuable addition to the team.

Chance of making the 25-man roster: 80%

Likely role: LF against left-handed pitchers, pinch-hitter

Josh Reddick

You’ll have to forgive me, but I used to get Josh Reddick and Ryan Kalish confused. The good news is that should no longer happen, as Reddick is out of Boston and in Oakland, acquired as part of the return for Andrew Bailey. Josh Reddick can do a little of everything. In his rookie season he hit for a little power (7 HR and .177 ISO), got on base (.327 OBP and .280 batting average), and played solid defense (20.2 UZR/150) in a limited 87 game sample. He’s got the right combination of potential and performance to be a starter amid all the question marks in Oakland. I anticipate he’ll get first crack at right field, and he should stick around unless his bat falls apart or he succumbs to injury.

Chance of making the 25-man roster: 80%

Likely role: Starting RF to begin the season

Daric Barton

First base has been a bit of a mystery for the Athletics ever since Daric Barton took over as starter in 2008. Barton is not your typical big-slugging first baseman…he hits for very little power (.378 career slugging percentage) and gets his value through walks and solid defense. Coming off of a 2010 where he notched 5.1 fWAR and put up a quiet All-Star-caliber performance, 2011 was a horror show. Daric posted a .212/.325/.267 slash line and found himself in Triple-A during 2011, and with no real potential to live up to, he’s got a tough task in reclaiming his spot as the starter. But even with that in mind, Barton has the major league pedigree, and he is only a year off an excellent performance. I think Barton gets the benefit of the doubt to start the season, unless one of the other first base contenders has a ridiculous Spring Training or his hitting continues to regress. But Chris Carter, Brandon Allen, and others are coming for his job, and Barton will have to produce with the stick to keep it.

Chance of making the 25-man roster: 75%

Likely role: Opening Day “regular” 1B, quick hook if he struggles

Chris Carter

Chris Carter has power. Chris Carter has patience. Chris Carter is under team control. What’s not to like? How about the fact that in his short time in the majors, Carter hasn’t been any good at all. He’s only had 124 plate appearances, but he’s managed a world-class average super-awful .167/.226/.254 slash line. Despite this, he’s still got the pedigree to be a very effective major-league hitter. Not only that, but Carter hits right-handed and could spell players like Josh Reddick, Brandon Allen, Seth Smith, and Daric Barton, making him a solid fit among all the left-handed hitters in the A’s lineup. Still, he could find himself back in Triple-A with a poor showing in the spring.

Chance of making the 25-man roster: 55%

Likely role: Opening Day DH

Collin Cowgill

Cowgill had an explosive season in Triple-A Reno, posting a .354/.430/.554 line in his first go-round in the league. He even stole thirty bases and played solid D in the outfield. But Cowgill was never an elite prospect, and those gaudy offensive numbers were buoyed by the park and league he played in. Still, he has a solid approach, and does a lot of things well. That should be enough for him to stick as a do-everything fourth outfielder for a team like Oakland. And if he can maintain the speed and a decent batting approach, he could be a starter in the league and a potential fantasy steal as well.

Chance of making the 25-man roster: 55%

Likely role: Fourth outfielder

Brandon Allen

At the risk of over-simplifying, Brandon Allen is basically a left-handed version of Chris Carter. He’s hit for monstrous power in the minors like Carter. He’s capable of taking walks (10.9% BB rate in the majors) like Carter. He has some very serious strikeout issues (he projects to strike out one out of every four PA) like Carter. He plays first base and tries to fake it in the outfield like Carter. He’s even roughly similar in age, just one year older than Carter. Yet that one year difference seems to be a big deal in prospect circles, and Allen is really on his last legs to prove himself beyond Triple-A. A Carter-Allen platoon at first base or DH could be a potent use of both players, but given the defensive limitations of both men, and another platoon already in place in LF, the A’s may be unwilling to go down such a path. Like so many of the young Athletic players, he needs regular time in the lineup to prove his worth at the ML level. He could be Adam Dunn-lite from 2009, or Adam Dunn-lite from 2011.

Chance of making the 25-man roster: 30%

Likely role: Could be either Triple-A 1B / DH or 25th man

Michael Taylor

No other head of The Hydra has more potential than Michael Taylor. The hulking outfielder was once a blue-chip prospect, but his stock has fallen after uninspiring performances in Triple-A in both 2010 and 2011. Nevertheless, Taylor has power potential and a solid batting eye. Despite getting a little old for a prospect (he is entering his age-26 season), Taylor has earned a chance to show his stuff at the major-league level. I’m sure he’ll get his chance in 2011, but word out of Oakland is that the team wants to see him get off to a good start in Triple-A before getting extended run with the big club. I think he’ll be patrolling right field (or playing DH) by mid-season, and he’ll get his chance to make his mark.

Chance of making the 25-man roster: 25%

Likely role: Triple-A outfielder and mid-season callup

Kila Ka’aihue

Kila Ka’aihue came over from Kansas City at the very end of the 2011 season after getting blocked at first by uber-prospect Eric Hosmer. Ka’aihue has always put up good minor league numbers (especially OBP), but is old for a prospect at 28 to start 2012. The left-handed hitter hasn’t been particularly effective in the majors (84 wRC+) despite his excellent batting eye, but he’s only been given about 300 plate appearances. Given his age and lack of upside, Kila probably won’t kick off the season with the big club unless something weird happens. He’s probably just the Sacramento first baseman, and some injury insurance.

Chance of making the 25-man roster: 10%

Likely role: Triple-A first baseman

These nine players may not be the most well-known, or the best players in the league. The ZiPS projection system doesn’t have a single one of these nine players posting an offensive season better than league-average. But there’s still a lot of potential here, and with the right combination of playing time and development, the A’s might find themselves with a middle-of-the-order bat or building block that emerges from this bunch of talented-but-flawed players.