Finding Keepers: San Diego Padres

Posted on 18 March 2012 by Mark Sherrard

As a small market team, the San Diego Padres seem to be perpetually rebuilding.  Its rare to find any stars on their roster. But can one find any keepers?

SP Cory Luebke came out of nowhere to become the ace of the young Padres staff. He only started 17 games for San Diego last season, spending most of the first half of the season in then pen. But, he posted an ERA of 3.29 with 154 K’s in 139.2 innings in 2011.   With a full season as a starter he is expected to give you 200 innings with an ERA under 3.50 to go along with over 175 K’s and 10-15 wins. His ADP is 136.21, but his rankings are strong: Yahoo! #118; ESPN #130; CBS #134.

After spending most of 2010 in the bullpen SP Tim Stauffer finally got a chance to start in 2011 and thrived. After posting a 3.73 ERA with 128 K’s and 9 wins in 2011.  Expect more of the same in 2012. The lack of wins may be holding his perceived value down as he comes in with an ADP of 240.89, while he’s ranked: Yahoo! #104; ESPN #181; CBS #206.

3B Chase Headley has lost his power to the caverns of Petco, but hits for a good average and shows patience at the plate. He produced a .773 OPS in 2011 and added 13 stolen bases. He is projected to hit .270-.280 with 10-15 stolen bases and around 10 homeruns. Not too shabby for what has become a pretty weak third base position. His ADP is 226.20. He is ranked: CBS #178; ESPN #217; Yahoo! NR.

1B Yonder Alonso, long stuck behind All Star Joey Votto in Cincinnati, finally escaped that purgatory only to face the perils of Petco. While he might not hit more than 10 homers, he should provided an average around .260-.270 and lots of doubles. Fantasy leagues and experts alike don’t know what to make of him as his ADP is 245.29, while he’s ranked: CBS #216; ESPN #278; Yahoo! NR.

Best of the rest, but not keepers

OF Cameron Maybin had his breakout season in 2011, hitting .264 with 40 stolen bases. His speed alone is causing many owners to overdraft him, as his ADP of 98.48 is well above his rankings: CBS #137; ESPN #143; Yahoo! #144.

RP Huston Street saved 29 games last year for Colorado. But his injuries allowed for the emergence of Rafael Betancourt and his trade to San Diego. While he should benefit from pitching at Petco, he still remains an injury risk. His ADP is 187.27. He is ranked: ESPN #176; CBS #234; Yahoo! NR.

OF Carlos Quentin will lose some of his power to Petco and he won’t hit for average. He will still net you around 20 homers, but don’t expect an average above .250. His ADP is 213.77. He is ranked: Yahoo! #191; ESPN #224; CBS #243.

OF Will Venable is another player who won’t hit for a high average, but can provide you with around 10 homers and 20 stolen bases. His ADP is 282.28. He is ranked: Yahoo! #223; CBS #292; ESPN NR.

C Nick Hundley had a strong season in 2011, which has many owner over drafting him in 2012. He can provide you with double digit homers and an average around .260, just don’t reach for him. His ADP is 258.74.

Note: All ADP values are from Mock Draft Central as of March 16, 2012 and player projections are based on BaseballHQ.com.

2 Comments For This Post

  1. PT_Mike Says:

    Jesus Guzman would be worth taking a flier on. He will likely get between 400-450 PAs this season, and was the Padres best hitter last year by OPS+. One would think offense-challenged San Diego will find a way to keep his bat in the lineup.

  2. Mark Sherrard Says:

    I agree the Guzman is probably worth a late round flier, but most likely in NL only leagues. I’m not sure he’ll get enough playing time to have value in mixed leagues.

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